Each week, News Press sports editor Jason Elmquist will make five bold predictions about Oklahoma State’s upcoming Big 12 Conference game. For another week, he pegged a few bold predictions correct – like the game coming down to special teams (OSU punter Zach Sinor was impeccable) and the game being make or break for Trevone Boykin’s Heisman hopes (likely out of the running now after four interceptions). Now he delves into the potential trap game against Iowa State.

Oklahoma State’s

defense will pitch a shutout

The last time the Cowboys held an opponent scoreless was against Savannah State to open the 2012 season. So with that knowledge, it’s hard to reason why Oklahoma State would break that streak now – considering it couldn’t even do it against a team such as Kansas. But this defense is playing its best it has all year as was evidenced by holding a TCU team to 20 fewer points than its season average. Oklahoma State has given up 23.8 points per game and this Iowa State team is at just 25.3 per contest, but they haven’t played a defense anywhere comparable to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have forced nine takeaways the past three games and Iowa State’s offense has giving up the ball five times in the same span – which will limit the Cyclones’ chances to score.

James Washington will be held under 100 yards receiving

While Washington has created a name for himself the past few games, he has also established himself as the main threat opposing defenses will focus on in the passing game. If Iowa State wants any chance of winning, their coaches will understand that limiting the explosive Washington will be necessary. That’s exactly what happened in last year’s game against Iowa State. A week after Washington went off for 87 yards and two touchdowns against Texas Tech in 2014, Iowa State held him to two catches for three yards. Fortunately for the Oklahoma State offense, they have an abundance of wealth at the wide receiver position that will easily fill the gap if Washington is shut down.

Mason Rudolph will have career day

While Iowa State may be able to stop James Washington, it’s going to take three players to do such, which will free up other elite wide receivers in man-to-man matchups. And Rudolph proved against TCU that he can exploit those one-on-one looks on the outside – which included an 82-yard strike to Marcell Ateman. As if coming off his first five-touchdown game wasn’t enough to believe in the peak that Rudolph is on, he will be facing an Iowa State defense that ranks eighth in the Big 12 in pass defense – giving up 318 yards passing in its six conference games. The two teams worse than Iowa State are Kansas State and Kansas – which Rudolph combined to throw for 742 yards against.

The 2011 upset will have no bearing

As the wise Rafiki once said in Lion King, “It’s doesn’t matter. It’s in the past.” That’s the approach that should be taken this week as an undefeated Oklahoma State team heads to Iowa State, which is drumming up memories of the 2011 upset by the Cyclones in Ames that prevented the Cowboys from reaching the BCS title game. Yes, there are plenty of coincidences – undefeated, playing in Ames, jumping up in the rankings, with OSU riding an 11-game winning streak. But there were also the extenuating circumstances in 2011 with the plane crash of Kurt Budke and Miranda Serna – which leads some to connect to the Homecoming crash. Again, all just coincidences. Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer put it best: “Could we lose that game up there? Yes. But it isn’t going to be because of all those things you just mentioned. Yes, we can get beat because they could execute better than us and make more plays than us.”

OSU will vault into the Top 4 of Playoffs if they win a close contest

By the absurd logic created by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, if Oklahoma State wins at Iowa State this weekend by eight points, the Cowboys should vault ahead of Baylor and perhaps into the Top Four – see Iowa after an eight-point win over a Indiana (4-6) this past week. That likely won’t happen, in fact how the committee approaches the Big 12 it would likely drop OSU back to No. 20 in the rankings. But at the same time, if Oklahoma State beats the Cyclones by the projected 14 points it is favored by, it could likely still hurt the Cowboys – because Iowa State is, well, Iowa State. So basically, to improve its chances in the playoff picture, Oklahoma State actually would be better off if the game were just not played – perhaps cancelled because the weather is supposed to be in the 60s in November in Iowa, which clearly means something is amiss.

Jason Elmquist is sports editor of The Stillwater News Press. He can be contacted at [email protected].