Has anyone ever had a below-.500 week against the spread but suggested two of the top plays at their respective positions? That should really be the bumper sticker of this column.

And with that, here are your Week 10 matchups and movements (and hopefully successful picks).

(Home team in CAPS)

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-11.5) over Detroit Lions

Vegas Scoring Total: 49

The Packers are one of only two teams averaging fewer than 60 offensive plays per game. Fortunately, 12 of those will no longer be going to Eddie Lacy (who has enjoyed running directly into his offensive line this season). As Mike McCarthy stated earlier this week, “James is our number one back right now going into Detroit.” Considering the Packers are two-score favorites hosting an abysmal Lions offense at home, they’ll almost certainly be in position to run the ball for a majority of the fourth quarter. Starks has 101 more total yards than Lacy on only four more touches.

To reach that point, however, they’ll still need to score points (and, quite obviously, lots of them). Though Aaron Rodgers will likely have a high ownership due to his most recent four-touchdown performance against the Carolina Panthers, it’s another exceptional matchup to stack him with any Packer of your choosing (though James Jones reportedly missed practice on Thursday).

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Total: 43.5

The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest passes of 25 yards or more, but that would entail another miraculous performance from Matt Cassel. It’s never hard for Dez Bryant to produce gaudy numbers, but whether Beasley has another career day this week — let alone this season — remains a mystery. But, if slot corner Alterraun Verner is cleared, that could in fact happen. Verner is graded 94th among corners at Pro Football Focus and would primarily be matched up with Beasley.

With the middle of the field being manned by Rolando McClain rather than Sean Lee, Doug Martin could potentially have himself a day. Yes, he hasn’t surpassed 80 total yards in each of the last two games, but he also went head to head with the 19th and 7th ranked defenses in rushing DVOA. The Cowboys rank 27th.

Carolina Panthers (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Total: 43.5

It appears to be another week in which the Titans are likely to take the field with only three active receivers. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you already know what Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker did to the Saints defense in Week 9. Unfortunately, only the Giants, Jets, and Eagles have recorded more turnovers than the Panthers. Walker has six receptions in five of his last six games, but even so, I’m terrified for both Mariota and Music City Miracle.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (-7) over Chicago Bears

Total: 42.5

There is arguably no uglier team to watch play professional football than the St. Louis Rams. Here, I’ll even emulate their game so you don’t have to sit through it this weekend.

Todd Gurley middle for 1 yard.

Todd Gurley left tackle for 2 yards.

Tavon Austin screen for 8 yards.

Todd Gurley right end for 2 yards.

Tavon Austin reverse for -7 yards.

Jared Cook pass dropped on third down.

Fake punt.

Todd Gurley middle for 73 yards. Touchdown.

Enjoy your Sunday!

WASHINGTON (Pick) over New Orleans Saints

Total: 50

If anyone besides Kirk Cousins had shown up in New England, then maybe we would be talking about Washington a bit more. But that’s beside the point. If you were to have rostered and played the Saints’ opposing quarterback blindly up to this point, you would have averaged 27.1 points (QB8) every week from that position. In their last three alone, New Orleans has given up an average of 35.4 fantasy points. You’re likely down on Washington as a whole after last week, but Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed will undoubtedly return to form at home in Week 10.

As for the Saints, note that Mark Ingram received 88 percent of the workload in their first game without Khiry Robinson. The success didn’t show, but Ingram received four red zone carries to no avail. As long as the opportunities remain (and they will), Ingram should remain as sturdy as they come moving forward. The Saints are one of only two teams averaging more than 71 offensive plays per game, so the volume is guaranteed no matter.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6) over Miami Dolphins

Total: 49

Under Joe Philbin, Lamar Miller was averaging 11 touches per game. The Dolphins were also running the ball on only 27 percent of their offensive plays. In their last four games with Dan Campbell, Miller has averaged 17 touches while Miami has upped their ratio to running the ball 43 percent of the time. Miami hasn’t seen too much success recently (now 2-2 under Campbell), but let’s be honest: as fantasy players, we don’t care about that (unless you reside in Miami, of course). All that matters to us is that Miller has the opportunity to rush for 11 yards on 17 carries rather than his former usual outlook of 7 yards on 11 carries.

Either way, the Eagles have found their rhythm on the ground as of late with both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Opponents have called run against the Dolphins more times than any other team, so expect another 20-plus touches for Murray (who has averaged 23 in his last four games) and the typical 6-60-1 line for Mathews. It’s also fortuitous for Philadelphia that the Dolphins are playing in their third consecutive road game.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns

Total: 41.5

Many are talking about Ben Roethlisberger (and rightfully so), but even if he were to play, this is likely to be a heavy DeAngelo Williams week. The Browns have allowed 171 more rushing yards than the next highest team, essentially an additional two games more than all others. Williams led Week 9 in red zone carries and has now received 84 percent, 83 percent, and 93 percent of the backfield touches in his three starts this year. Before you get too cute, just know there is no surer chalk play for cash games than Williams in Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Total: 47.5

No matchup between two 2-6 teams has ever garnered more attention. Even if Allen Hurns were to sit this week, only the Colts have allowed more passing plays of over 25 yards than the Ravens. Note that Blake Bortles has passed for more than 300 yards in three of his last four games while Allen Robinson has 600 yards and six touchdowns in six games against anyone not named Josh Norman or Vontae Davis. Considering Baltimore has allowed only two running backs to rush for more than 65 yards, this one is likely to take place through the air.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Total: 44

Oakland has been forced to defend the pass on 66.5 percent of opposing teams play-calls (highest percentage in the league) and, even with Adrian Peterson leading the league in rushing, that shouldn’t change in Week 10. The Raiders have allowed 11 consecutive performances of 250-plus passing yards and now has the duty of somehow defending Stefon Diggs. Even with a lower total, Diggs’ performance last week (three receptions for 42 yards) is all the more reason to have exposure towards him, since the majority will likely shy away.

Touting Michael Crabtree and his on-pace numbers seems to be all the rage, but Amari Cooper remains undervalued. Against the Broncos and Jets, Cooper hauled in a total of nine receptions for 93 yards and no scores. Against all others this season, he has 36 catches for 560 yards and four touchdowns. Note that PFF grades Xavier Rhodes, who will be lined up opposite of Cooper, as their 102nd-best corner.

Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Total: 41.5

The Broncos pass defense is allowing a league-low 5.9 yards per attempt, but will be without the services of Aqib Talib (one-game suspension) and DeMarcus Ware (aggravated back, leads the team with 5.5 sacks). Either way, with Kansas City having allowed only one runner to rush for more than 71 yards, Demaryius Thomas remains the sole chalk play in this one.

Thomas has seen fewer than 11 targets in only two games this season. His salary has also dropped in every game over the course of the last month. Emmanuel Sanders has yet to practice and the Chiefs have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. You know what to do.

New England Patriots (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Total: 54.5

Let’s attempt to avoid narratives entirely and stick with what we’re certain of. For instance, Prince Amukamara is out. Brandon LaFell has received at least seven targets in every game since being activated and will now basically roam free on the outside. It’s also certain that LeGarrette Blount received 29 carries last week. James White played 42 snaps in Week 7 when Dion Lewis was inactive, but keep in mind the Patriots only called six run plays in that game. Edelman has also surpassed 100 receiving yards only once this season, but remains a top-8 wideout due to his red zone looks (second-most in the league) and 10.3 targets per game.

There. No Eli-Manning-is-Brady’s-kryptonite-and-the-Giants-will-probably-cover talk.

(Wait…)

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Total: 45

Following the Kam Chancellor debauchery that the Seahawks were forced to fight through until he returned, Seattle has come out of nowhere and is now allowing fewer total yards than any franchise not named the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, Arizona is giving up the fourth-fewest yards per game on the ground (Seattle’s obvious point of attack).

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-10.5) over Houston Texans

Total: 47.5

If it seems like A.J. Green has been volatile, it’s because he has. Green has played in only three games against division foes and has recorded 49 percent of his targets, 50 percent of his receptions, 57 percent of his receiving yards, and 75 percent of his touchdowns in those three outings.

Some things don’t matter when you have Tyler Eifert roaming the end zone.

Shameless Plug: We’re now keeping a running Survivor Pool rankings going until the final week of the season for those of you still sweating it out.

Good luck this week.

Last Week: 4-7

Week 9 Exposure: Marcus Mariota (33.3 FanDuel points), Ben Roethlisberger (22.3), Darren McFadden (12.7), Todd Gurley (18.4), Devonta Freeman (17.9), Amari Cooper (18.3), Antonio Brown (37.1), Emmanuel Sanders (18), Brandon LaFell (12.7), Delanie Walker (27), Heath Miller (4.7), Broncos (7)

Season: 64-50-5

Week 10 Exposure: Aaron Rodgers, Blake Bortles, Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams, James Starks, Darren McFadden, Allen Robinson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Brandon LaFell, Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Reed, Panthers