The Line: Florida (-7.5)

Florida was a sizable favorite last weekend against Vanderbilt, but the Gators were just fortunate to get out with a 9-7 victory that clinched their spot in the SEC Championship Game.

South Carolina, on the other hand, has fallen short away from home in the last two weeks—against Texas A&M and Tennessee—when it was expected to lose by a decent margin. Now the Gamecocks are back at home, where they’ve won their last two games.

Both teams have done well at covering the spread this season, with a long Florida streak snapping just last weekend against Vanderbilt. But while South Carolina’s offense has improved in some areas in recent weeks, that 110th-ranked rush defense is going to an issue against Florida team that should be content to just pound the ball on the ground and take only a few shots downfield with Treon Harris.

The line for this game opened at 8.5 points and slipped down to 7.5. Both numbers seem too small for a Florida team that is still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot and can use some style points.

The Pick: Florida (-7.5)

The Line: Ohio State (-16.5)

Minnesota’s fourth-quarter surge last weekend meant Ohio State failed to cover the spread once again in a 28-14 victory. The Buckeyes didn’t look all that impressive against the Golden Gophers, and now they find themselves outside of the No. 1 spot in the AP poll heading into a road game against Illinois.

Ohio State will start quarterback J.T. Barrett after his one-game suspension, and that’s excellent news for an offense that has been up and down this season. Barrett has played much more consistently than postseason hero Cardale Jones, leading the way in big wins over Penn State and Rutgers.

Illinois is coming off a blowout win over Purdue, and it has been a tough out this season for several quality opponents—save an embarrassing shutout loss at Penn State. With a top-20 defense in yards per play and experience in close games with the likes of Wisconsin and Iowa, the Illini could frustrate the Buckeyes even more in Week 11.

But with Barrett back in the starting lineup, I expect the Buckeyes’ offense to return to its mid-October form as the defense keeps up its solid momentum. A motivated Ohio State team takes care of business away from home and avoids another one of those backdoor covers.

The Pick: Ohio State (-16.5)

The Line: Clemson (-27.5)

Clemson is riding high off its important win over Florida State last weekend, and the Tigers are just a few wins away from nailing down a great seed in this season’s College Football Playoff.

The first of three rather easy matchups down the stretch for Clemson is Syracuse, which has lost six straight games after starting the season 3-0. The Orange have been giving up points in bunches during this losing streak, with four of those six opponents hanging at least 40 on the scoreboard. 

Clemson is undefeated, but it’s only gone 3-4 against the spread in its last seven games, according to Odds Shark. Syracuse, while on a miserable stretch right now, has been a sneaky-good pick at home this season, covering four out of five times inside the Carrier Dome.

While the Tigers should easily take this win, there’s always the danger of a letdown performance after such an emotional victory like the one they had against Florida State. Clemson wins here, but not quite by four touchdowns. 

The Pick: Syracuse (+27.5)

The Line: Alabama (-8)

Another team with tremendous momentum heading into a road matchup, Alabama defended its high playoff ranking Saturday night with a great win over undefeated LSU at home. Now the Tide roll into Starkville to face regional rival Mississippi State.

Alabama has had zero problem putting points on the board away from Bryant-Denny Stadium this season, scoring 35, 38 and 41 in games against Wisconsin, Georgia and Texas A&M. Star running back Derrick Henry is coming off his best game of the year, and Mississippi State’s run defense has allowed 4.72 yards per carry against SEC competition this season.

On the other side, Mississippi State has been notoriously poor at scoring against Alabama in the last several years. Even with some of the Bulldogs’ best-ever offenses under head coach Dan Mullen, they’ve only put up a combined 17 points on Alabama in their last three meetings in Starkville.

Alabama is playing some of the best football in the country right now, and Mississippi State’s current winning streak has been bolstered by lousy competition. Alabama pulls away in this one and wins by multiple scores.

The Pick: Alabama (-8)

The Line: Michigan (-12.5)

Michigan is in the thick of the race for the Big Ten East division, especially after Michigan State’s surprising loss to Nebraska last weekend. But before huge games against Penn State and Ohio State, the Wolverines must travel to Indiana in Week 11. 

Jim Harbaugh’s team flexed its muscles inside the Big House last weekend with a blowout win over Rutgers. However, the Wolverines haven’t been too impressive in their few games away from home—and they nearly tasted last-second defeat at Minnesota a couple of weeks ago.

Indiana has now lost five straight after starting 4-0, but it’s not like the Hoosiers haven’t come close to ending their long slide. They have played close games against undefeated clubs Ohio State and Iowa inside Memorial Stadium, with a shootout loss against Rutgers thrown into the mix.

While Michigan has an excellent defense, Indiana put up 27 points against another tough defense in Iowa last weekend and is always a threat to turn things into a high-scoring affair. The Hoosiers’ home form, combined with Michigan’s so-so performances on the road, cause me to lean toward Indiana to cover.

The Pick: Indiana (+12.5)

The Line: Houston (-6.5)

Unfortunately for fans of Group of Five conferences—and #TeamChaos in the playoff race—this matchup is no longer a showdown between undefeated teams out of the American Athletic Conference’s West division thanks to Navy’s big upset of the Tigers last Saturday.

Memphis had been red-hot entering the home game against Navy, but turnovers and explosive plays from Navy doomed the Tigers to a loss. The Tigers need a bounce-back performance on offense, and they’ll look to quarterback Paxton Lynch to keep them alive in the race for the AAC.

Houston has a sizable rushing advantage in this one, with the offense averaging 273 yards per game on the ground and the defense ranking seventh nationally in yards per play. In pass defense, Houston gives up its fair share of chunk plays, but it is tied for the fourth-most interceptions in college football this season. Lynch, who has only thrown two picks in 2015, needs to be extra sharp in order to pull the upset.

The trendy pick here is for Memphis to cover, but host Houston has won straight-up and against the spread in its last four matchups with the Tigers. Houston’s ability to dominate the ground game and time of possession makes me go against the grain here.

The Pick: Houston (-6.5)

The Line: LSU (-7.5)

These two SEC West rivals had completely different types of outcomes last weekend, with Arkansas pulling off an overtime road upset of Ole Miss in unbelievable fashion and LSU watching its undefeated season crumble with a 30-16 loss at Alabama.

LSU’s offense will have a good chance to get Heisman-contending running back Leonard Fournette back on track in this one, and the passing game has a favorable matchup against an Arkansas defense that is ranked 119th nationally in yards allowed per attempt this season.

But Arkansas’ offense is on a hot streak of its own this season, and it’s carried the Hogs to a 4-1 record both straight-up and against the spread in their last five games. Brandon Allen will look to carry over the momentum from his six-touchdown performance against Ole Miss against an LSU defense that hasn’t exactly shut down the passing game like it’s used to doing.

With the exception of last year’s surprise shutout win for Arkansas and LSU’s beatdown in 2011, the majority of the meetings between these two rivals have been decided by less than a touchdown. Arkansas is on a roll right now, and I’ll tab Bret Bielema‘s team to force another tight SEC West showdown against Les Miles and company.

The Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)

The Line: Baylor (-2.5)

Undefeated Baylor opened as six-point home favorites against Oklahoma, but that line has plummeted down to within three points in just a couple of days.

This is a Big 12 elimination game for Oklahoma, which fell flat in a loss to Texas earlier this season. Since then, the Sooners have destroyed their competition, outscoring four Big 12 opponents 232-50. The rushing attack has put up at least 230 yards in each game and even cracked the 400-yard mark against Texas Tech.

Baylor’s defense has allowed 230 rushing yards in back-to-back contests, including last week’s 31-24 road win over a Kansas State team that Oklahoma beat 55-0. But recent results haven’t meant much for Baylor heading into this Oklahoma game recently, as the Bears blew out the Sooners in 2013 and 2014.

I would’ve picked Oklahoma with the opening line, as I see this one turning into a uptempo shootout of in-form offenses. But with Baylor’s recent history at tormenting Oklahoma and home-field advantage in Waco, I’m going with the Bears in a close victory. 

The Pick: Baylor (-2.5)

The Line: Stanford (-10)

After what has been quite a shift in this Pac-12 North series, Oregon will head into Stanford on Saturday as a sizable, three-loss underdog. 

While Oregon’s first half of the season started in such disappointing fashion, the Ducks have thrived in the underdog role. They’ve covered in all three of their games in this position, including recent wins over Washington and Arizona State. Last week, a favored Oregon team posted a school-record 777 yards in a 16-point win over California.

Stanford has been money in its seven-game winning streak—especially at home. The Cardinal have covered in seven straight of their last eight and won all three of their home Pac-12 games by 17 or more points. The one team it didn’t beat against the spread? Uptempo, spread-it-out Washington State.

Although the Ducks and the Cougars do things a lot differently in terms of offensive style, Oregon also has enough healthy firepower to hang with Stanford on Saturday night. The Ducks may not pull off the upset, but they should keep things entertaining through against their big division rival.

The Pick: Oregon (+10)

The Line: Utah (-6)

Utah is fighting to stay alive in the Pac-12 and College Football Playoff races, and the Utes are looking to avoid a letdown Saturday night against a struggling Arizona team.

The Utes have recorded back-to-back double-digit wins since their loss at USC, and they’ve been a strong road team defensively outside of the trip to Los Angeles. The rushing attack, led by the hard-running Devontae Booker, has picked up the pace in the last two games as well.

Arizona needs one more win to become bowl-eligible as it has lost three straight games. The Wildcats’ defense has allowed more than 30 points and 450 yards in all but one of its Pac-12 contests this season—a blowout home win over a bad Oregon State team. Offensively, the Wildcats have been inconsistent thanks to a slew of injuries.

Utah won’t exactly light up the scoreboard like others in the Pac-12, but its balance on both sides of the ball should be enough to put some distance between the Utes and the Wildcats. Even away from home, I like Utah to cover.

The Pick: Utah (-6)

Maryland at No. 15 Michigan State (-15.5)

How will Michigan State respond after the heartbreaking loss to Nebraska? The Spartans have played things close with way too many underdogs this season, and Maryland has played in several close contests since the firing of head coach Randy Edsall. Don’t be surprised if Michigan State has to pull away late again.

The Pick: Maryland (+15.5)

Purdue at No. 24 Northwestern (-14.5)

After back-to-back close victories over Nebraska and Penn State, the Wildcats have a home matchup against a Purdue team that has mostly fallen flat against higher-quality teams this season. With running quarterback Clayton Thorson now expected to play against the Boilermakers, look for the Northwestern offense to have a great day against a two-win opponent. 

The Pick: Northwestern (-14.5)

Kansas at No. 13 TCU (-45)

TCU gets a much-needed opportunity to bounce back after its road loss at undefeated Oklahoma State and prepare for its big-time matchups against Oklahoma and Baylor. Look, Kansas is dreadful, but the Jayhawks have lost by 14, 10 and four points, respectively, in their three Big 12 matchups with TCU. This is a dangerous spread, but I’d lean toward Kansas to somehow cover.

The Pick: Kansas (+45)

NC State at No. 19 Florida State (-9.5)

Florida State looks vulnerable here after a hard-fought loss at Clemson, and NC State is quietly 6-3 this season with a rushing attack that knows how to find the end zone. The Wolfpack have done well in recent seasons with covering against Florida State, too. NC State might not win this one outright, but it has all the makings of a closer game on paper.

The Pick: NC State (+9.5)

Miami at No. 17 North Carolina (-12.5)

North Carolina’s offense is simply on fire right now, and the Tar Heels have a dangerous defense to go right along with it this season. Miami has put together two close wins after the departure of Al Golden, but do the Hurricanes have enough offensive firepower to hang with UNC on the road? The one-loss Heels want more respect from the rest of the country, and they’ll look to scorch this Miami defense in a big way Saturday.

The Pick: North Carolina (-12.5)

Wake Forest at No. 6 Notre Dame (-27.5)

This line is somewhat surprising to me, considering Wake Forest has only lost one game this badly all season, and Notre Dame only beat UMass by more than 28 points. Wake Forest’s defense has been better than expected this season and played close with the likes of Indiana, Florida State and Louisville. Notre Dame is more talented than all of those teams, but four touchdowns still look to be too much here.

The Pick: Wake Forest (+27.5)

SMU at No. 22 Navy (-21.5)

SMU’s defense is one of the worst in the country, and it just allowed 60 points and 268 rushing yards to a Temple offense that isn’t exactly light-’em-up material. Navy, on the other hand, is coming off an impressive 45-20 victory over previously undefeated Memphis. Keenan Reynolds and the Midshipmen option attack should put up a lot of points on the Mustangs.

The Pick: Navy (-21.5)

No. 5 Oklahoma State (-14) at Iowa State

Iowa State may have embarrassed Texas a couple of weeks ago, but the Cyclones couldn’t hang with the other big guns of the Big 12 in their previous matchups. Oklahoma State proved last weekend it’s just as dangerous on both sides of the ball as TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma, who all beat the Cyclones by a combined 82 points. Oklahoma State picks up some style points here away from home.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-14)

No. 21 Temple (-3) at South Florida

South Florida is on the verge of reaching bowl eligibility thanks to four wins in its last five games. The Bulls have been excellent at home this season, but Temple is a much stiffer test than any they’ve faced on their turf in 2015. Temple still has eyes on a big bowl berth, and the Owls should win and cover here.

The Pick: Temple (-3)

Minnesota at No. 8 Iowa (-11.5)

This has all the makings of an intriguing matchup in Iowa City. Iowa has pulled off several single-digit wins in the last month, and Minnesota didn’t go down lightly against Michigan and Ohio State. However, I expect Iowa to get a good-sized victory as the Golden Gophers run out of gas after two closer-than-expected losses.

The Pick: Iowa (-11.5)

Washington State at No. 18 UCLA (-9.5)

UCLA’s pass defense has made some much-needed improvement over the last several weeks, but Mike Leach’s Air Raid is on another level right now with Luke Falk at quarterback. Wazzu has been a nightmare matchup for anyone in the last month and a half. While I’m not sure if I like the Cougars straight up, I’ll pick them to make it close with their high-scoring ways.

The Pick: Washington State (+9.5)

Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders. 

Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.