If 49ers do move on from Colin Kaepernick in 2016, they better be right
Before we start, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with Blaine Gabbert.
Sure, Gabbert played reasonably well in the San Francisco 49ers’ win over the Atlanta Falcons. No, he didn’t “win” the game — football is a team sport. “Quarterback wins” is not a real stat; teams win and lose games, not quarterbacks. Gabbert was solid. He was part of a winning effort. But he didn’t show any signs he’s the long-term answer in San Francisco.
Which leads to the next question: What is the long-term answer in San Francisco?
There was a report from CBS that said it is a “virtual certainty” Kaepernick won’t be back with the 49ers. The story cited the frayed relationship between the front office and the player. 
But here’s the problem: Do the 49ers have a better option than the 28-year-old Kaepernick? He’s still the same guy who looked like a rising star as recently as the end of the 2013 season, when he threw that pass that Richard Sherman tipped and Malcolm Smith intercepted, sending the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl. The problem is, not much has gone right since.
The money issue is the toughest obstacle to overcome, even if the 49ers did think it was best to bring Kaepernick back and try to figure out how to get him turned back around. Kaepernick’s $126 million contract, given shortly after that NFC championship game loss, was structured in a way that the 49ers could move on pretty easily. Kaepernick is due $16.7 million next season and $19.3 million the season after that. After the 49ers benched Kaepernick for Gabbert, who failed miserably with the Jacksonville Jaguars in his previous stop, they’re not paying Kaepernick $16.7 million next season without some kind of change between now and the end of the season. He’d have to show he can be the 2012 or 2013 Kaepernick and not the guy they’ve seen since then.
And if you buy that the organization has already decided Kaepernick will not be in their plans in 2016 no matter what, it is not acting that way publicly. It would have been easy for coach Jim Tomsula to say Gabbert would continue to be the starter after the Falcons win, but he didn’t. Tomsula’s comments — particularly the one that the move would “let him breathe” — have made it sound like the team could try Kaepernick again this season. No use in doing any of that if the decision about 2016 has already been made. Then again, if they’re truly done with Kaepernick, it’s not something they’d announce publicly now.
The money is an issue for Kaepernick. His play on the field has regressed so badly that it is hard at times to see him digging out of it and playing at a high level again. Apparently the front office isn’t thrilled with him. But rebooting at quarterback is not fun and something most organizations avoid at all costs. Giving up completely on Kaepernick now might signal a long rebuild is in store for San Francisco, unless they hit a home run right away at quarterback in the draft. And it wasn’t that long ago that Kaepernick was an effective quarterback, albeit with a great supporting cast. A lot of his physical skills are still intact. It would be a gamble to start over.
Some teams spend decades chasing franchise quarterbacks. If the 49ers have truly made up their minds they are done with Kaepernick, one thing is clear: They better be right.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
