College Football Picks Week 11: Top 25 Rankings, Schedule, Odds and Predictions – Bleacher Report
After Week 10 of the college football season saw five undefeated teams in the Associated Press Top 25 poll go down, Week 11 should bring some stability to the rankings.
Per OddsShark.com, 11 ranked teams opened as double-digit favorites, and another five are favored by at least a touchdown.
All Top 25 teams in action play Saturday, while the No. 23 Wisconsin Badgers are the only one off this week. Let’s take a look at the rankings, odds, predicted winners and a few teams that might be able to buck the expected trend in Week 11 and pull off an upset:
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Odds | Predicted Winner |
| No. 2 Ohio State at Illinois | 12:00 p.m. | Ohio State -16 | Ohio State |
| No. 11 Florida at South Carolina | 12:00 p.m. | Florida -8.5 | Florida |
| Kansas at No. 13 TCU | 12:00 p.m. | TCU -43 | TCU |
| Maryland at No. 14 Michigan State | 12:00 p.m. | Michigan State -16 | Michigan State |
| Purdue at No. 24 Northwestern | 12:00 p.m. | Northwestern -13 | Northwestern |
| North Carolina State at No. 19 Florida State | 12:30 p.m. | Florida State -10.5 | Florida State |
| No. 1 Clemson at Syracuse | 3:30 p.m. | Clemson -26.5 | Clemson |
| No. 3 Alabama at No. 20 Mississippi State | 3:30 p.m. | Alabama -7 | Alabama |
| No. 5 Oklahoma State at Iowa State | 3:30 p.m. | Oklahoma State -13.5 | Oklahoma State |
| Wake Forest at No. 6 Notre Dame | 3:30 p.m. | Notre Dame -27 | Notre Dame |
| No. 15 Michigan at Indiana | 3:30 p.m. | Michigan -11 | Michigan |
| Miami at No. 17 North Carolina | 3:30 p.m. | North Carolina -12.5 | North Carolina |
| No. 22 Navy vs. SMU | 3:30 p.m. | Navy -20 | Navy |
| No. 25 Memphis at No. 16 Houston | 7:00 p.m. | Houston -5 | Memphis |
| No. 21 Temple Owls at South Florida | 7:00 p.m. | Temple -3 | Temple |
| Arkansas at No. 9 LSU | 7:15 p.m. | LSU -9 | LSU |
| Oregon at No. 7 Stanford | 7:30 p.m. | Stanford -8.5 | Stanford |
| No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 4 Baylor | 8:00 p.m. | Baylor -6 | Baylor |
| Minnesota at No. 8 Iowa Hawkeyes | 8:00 p.m. | Iowa -11 | Iowa |
| No. 10 Utah at Arizona | 10:00 p.m. | Utah -4.5 | Arizona |
| Washington State at No. 18 UCLA | 10:45 p.m. | UCLA -8.5 | UCLA |
Lines per OddsShark
Memphis Will Bounce Back
The previously undefeated Tigers were embarrassed Nov. 7 at home in a 45-20 loss to Navy. Yes, the Midshipmen are 7-1 and have a shot at playing in a “New Year’s Six” bowl, but it was supposed to be Memphis in that position.
It was the Tigers offense, which had put up 40-plus points in six of its first eight games, that was supposed to lead the Tigers to an American Athletic Conference title. Instead, Navy ran for 374 yards and five touchdowns, using a triple-option Memphis could not stop.
Don’t look for that to happen Week 11 when the No. 16 Houston Cougars come to town. At 9-0, they are now the favorite to win the AAC West division, although Navy may have something to say about that.
Houston’s high-powered offense is averaging 44.4 points per game, but Memphis can one-up the Cougars with an average of 44.7. Houston’s defense is only allowing about 19 points per game but has shown some signs of weakness.
Cincinnati scored 30 in a Week 10 loss to Houston, while 1-8 SMU put up 28 against the Cougars. Numbers never lie, but it will be something else that leads to a Memphis victory: Houston’s catching the Tigers at the wrong time.
Memphis is too good to be embarrassed twice in a row at home. If Navy caught Memphis sleeping, Houston certainty won’t.
Cougars head coach Tom Herman already has addressed that point with his team, per Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle:
Houston coach Tom Herman on telling team about staying focus after Memphis upset by Navy over weekend pic.twitter.com/oQi2kk0vsC
— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) November 9, 2015
Hearing it from a coach and actually making it happen are two different things. The difference will be the play of Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch.
He has shown he should at least be mentioned in the Heisman Trophy talk. The junior has thrown for 3,014 yards, 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Houston struggled with Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel, allowing the quarterback to throw for 523 yards and four touchdowns. Herman said his team has to do better in the future, per ESPN.com:
Hats off to them, that’s an NFL quarterback throwing to probably a couple of NFL wide receivers. Obviously we’ve probably got to play better when faced with that. We were bringing a ton of stuff at them and couldn’t get a ton of pressure and when we did we made it count.
Lynch certainly has taken note of Kiel’s performance. Look for him to bounce back from a subpar performance against Navy and lead the Tigers to victory.
Memphis wins 31-28.
Time for an Arizona Upset
Utah was the darling of non-Power Five conference football midway through the season. After a 6-0 start, the Utes were ranked as high as third, and talk of a possible national championship season was circulating.
USC pretty much ended the discussion in Week 8 with a 42-24 victory over Utah. Still, at 5-1 in the Pac-12, the Utes control their own destiny in terms of winning the South division.
Devontae Booker has carried the team all season with 1,116 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. In victories over Washington and Oregon State since the USC loss, Booker totaled 271 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
He’s a star on a very good team. The Arizona Wildcats don’t care.
They play host Nov. 14 to the Utes on senior night.
At 5-5 with no marquee victory on the schedule, Arizona doesn’t look on paper like a team ready to pull off an upset. Even so, OddsShark.com opened the Wildcats as just 4.5-point underdogs despite playing host to the No. 10-ranked team in the country.
It may have something to do with the fact Arizona, under head coach Rich Rodriguez, has a knack for pulling off upsets.
In 2014, the Wildcats lost four games but won at No. 17 Utah and against No. 13 Arizona State.
In 2013, they were just 8-5 but upset No. 5 Oregon, 42-17, at home.
The year before, Rodriguez’s first in Tuscon, they lost three straight games to ranked teams in the middle of the season. Despite limping to a 4-3 start, they beat No. 9 USC, 39-36, eventually winning a bowl game later in the season.
Jason Scheer of WildcatAuthority.com thinks it’s time for Arizona to pick up that signature, upset victory:
I’m sure I’ll get crap for this but my initial thought is to pick Arizona to beat Utah.
— Jason Scheer (@JasonScheer) November 8, 2015
Playing in front of a home crowd with bowl eligibility on the line, look for the Wildcats to come out on top and salvage their season. It’s just what they do.
Arizona wins 41-35.
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