NFL against the spread picks: Oakland Raiders, playoff team?
Weird as it sounds, if the season ended today, the Oakland Raiders would be the top wild-card team in the AFC.
If you’re still holding onto some skepticism about the Raiders, they have a prime chance to eliminate it Sunday. If they win at the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Raiders are in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs. They’d hold the tiebreaker over the New York Jets and Steelers in the wild-card race. The AFC isn’t that strong outside of the top three this season. Although we haven’t identified which team will make a run in the second half (Buffalo Bills, perhaps?), the Raiders are a win away from being 5-3. At that point they’d be penciled into the field until further notice.
How did this happen? The Raiders were supposed to be a year away, at least. But a couple of great drafts and a much, much better free agency this year by general manager Reggie McKenzie boosted the talent level. That was apparent all the way back in training camp. Then Derek Carr made a huge leap. He has a 105.7 rating. Only Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer — all MVP candidates — are better. And yes, the Houston Texans set their franchise back a decade by not picking Carr 33rd overall in 2014.
All that said, and as much as the Raiders story is a fun one this season, I’m not quite ready to give them a win this Sunday at the Steelers. Even though the Steelers don’t have Le’Veon Bell, I think Ben Roethlisberger will be better in his second game back and have a big day against the Raiders’ secondary. I’ll take Pittsburgh minus-4 in Sunday’s game.
But if the Raiders pull off the upset, the perception will change. They’ll go from being a feel-good story and a potential surprise as a playoff team to one you’d have to assume will be in the postseason in January. This is their biggest game in a long time.
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 9:
Bengals (-11) over Browns (picked Thursday): Another Thursday night thriller.
Bills (-3) over Dolphins: Really interesting game between a pair of 3-4 teams, because you can talk yourself into either winning and getting hot in the second half, but basically the loser is finished. Feels like an elimination game already.
Rams (+2.5) over Vikings: The Vikings have been good to me (picking them every week is the only reason by terrible record isn’t even worse), but I think Todd Gurley has transformed this Rams team. They seem kind of immune to those games in which they just show up looking unprepared because they can just keep feeding the ball to Gurley and eventually he’ll make a play.
Redskins (+14) over Patriots: The Patriots don’t have a phenomenal against-the-spread record as huge favorites. And no matter how good they are, it’s just hard to lay two touchdowns against any NFL team.
Titans (+8) over Saints: Saints still gave up 49 points last week. They’ll score, but the back door will be open all game.
Jets (off) over Jaguars: No line on the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em because of the Jets’ quarterback uncertainty. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems set to go, and I’m not sure it mattered all that much anyway.
Packers (-2.5) over Panthers: I understand the case for the Panthers. I understand the case against the Packers defense, with the way it’s playing lately. But when it comes down to it, I just can’t see Green Bay losing and falling two games behind Carolina. If they do, the NFC title is likely coming through Charlotte.
Falcons (-7) over 49ers: Come on, I’m not picking Blaine Gabbert.
Giants (-2.5) over Buccaneers: Tough call, because it’s clear now that the Giants defense is horrible. But I’m still holding on to that shred of hope I had for the Giants when they looked so good early this season. Probably a mistake.
Colts (+5) over Broncos: I don’t feel good about taking this Colts team against that Broncos defense. But the line seems a little inflated because of how the Broncos pounded the Packers. I might regret this one very early on.
Eagles (-2.5) over Cowboys: I don’t love the Eagles. But I’m not sure the Cowboys have any confidence they can win any game without Tony Romo.
Bears (+4) over Chargers: The Chargers aren’t very good and they have roughly a thousand injuries. I can’t justify picking them as a favorite.
Last week: 6-7-1
Season to date: 56-59-3
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
