Chris Andrews, a professional handicapper and former bookmaker with 30-plus years of experience in the sports betting business, offers against the spread picks on a pair of Saturday’s college football games, each with major playff implications, No. 17 Florida State at No. 3 Clemson and  No. 4 LSU at No. 7 Alabama.

RENO — Alabama is getting a lot of heat in the college football community for being among the top four teams in the initial college football playoff rankings. Oh goody. Just what Nick Saban needs, another motivational tool.

Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite to upend LSU in Tuscaloosa Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, CBS). The over-under is set at 47.5 points. Visit The Linemakers on Sporting News’ odds page for update college football lines and totals. 

Saban has the kind of defense that can slow down the Tigers’ offense, which is armed with the nation’s best running back, Leonard Fournette. LSU is averaging 309.1 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards a carry on the season. ‘Bama, on the other hand, only gives up 2.6 yards per carry and 78.5 rushing yards a game. Needless to say, whoever wins this battle will go a long way in determining the winner of game. 

Both teams are coming off a bye (the schedule makers are no fools) so no real advantage there. Alabama is getting home-field advantage, but Les Miles has had good success in Tuscaloosa. As far as coaching goes, Saban is generally regarded as one of college football’s best, but Miles certainly has his own accomplishments with a national championship under his belt. Not much of an edge here either.

By the numbers: LSU vs. Alabama

Where Alabama has the advantage is if they can stop, or at least slow down Fournette. LSU’s options after that are not great, nor versatile. In all honesty, Tigers’ QB Brandon Harris has improved in his last three starts and is putting together a pretty good season. In the last three contests, however, Fournette had his way. The passing game was a nice auxiliary piece in the offense, not the ingredient that won the games.

This meeting should play out differently. Alabama has the defensive scheme and athletes to prevent Fournette from totally dominating the game. Once Harris and LSU need to pass, it will be a whole different contest.

Alabama has its own offensive weapons in QB Jake Coker and running back Derrick Henry. Henry is not Fournette’s equal, but he is still one of the best running backs in the country. On offense, ‘Bama is much more balanced the LSU. It runs 56 percent of the time while LSU leans on the rush in 71 percent of its play calling. ‘Bama’s run-to-pass yardage split is 188.5 to 232.4 while LSU’s is 309.1 to 156.9. If Fournette cannot contribute as normal, the Tigers are in big, big trouble.

Alabama’s defense gives up fewer total yards than LSU (274.3 to 310.4) and it is more efficient. The Crimson Tide allow a point for every 16.7 yards while the Tigers give away a point for every 13.8.

This should be a great game between two excellent teams, but there are a few things in Alabama’s favor that will swing the game its way.

Pick: Alabama -6.5

Line: Clemson -11, Total: 56

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This is an awfully high number (Clemson -11) for a game in which Florida State has dominated the matchup forever. But when I go down the line, Clemson is better in virtually every single statistical category.

Let’s look at offensive and defensive differentials; these numbers are key. Clemson has more total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, first downs, points per game, and a better passer rating, sack percentage, scoring per possession ratio, etc. The only thing Florida State has an edge in is turnover margin at nine-plus, Clemson is just one up on the year. 

Florida State has been a good team this season, it just hasn’t been great. Jimbo Fisher’s men only have one loss, the miracle Georgia Tech pulled on them. But the Seminoles are just 4-4 ATS.

Clemson is undefeated and atop the College Football Playoff rankings in the season’s first poll. Handicappers still have not caught on to how good this team is.

One more thing, I don’t think Clemson’s head coach Dabo Swinney appreciates all the disrespect he and his program get from the media, both national and local. I think if Swinney has a chance to keep his foot on the gas against an opponent that has dominated his outfit for years; he’ll put that pedal to the floor and keep it there til the final whistle. He’ll have that chance on Saturday.

Pick: Clemson -11

The Linemakers in Vegas have a pick and betting analysis on the Florida State-Clemson game, too. Check out what Micah Roberts and Kenny White have to say about the contest here. 

More college football picks: Four for Vegas

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Check out Chris Andrews’ Weekend Warrior picks package for both the NFL and college football seasons. Also, follow Chris on Twitter @andrewssports and visit his website, againstthenumber.com.