5-on-5: Breaking down Heat-Pacers and Rockets-Kings
It’s doubleheader Friday with two intriguing matchups on ESPN and WatchESPN.
First, the Miami Heat visit Indianapolis (8 p.m. ET) to take on the Indiana Pacers and Paul George, who leads them in points, rebounds, assists and PER in his first full season back from injury. Then, the Houston Rockets get their first look at Rajon Rondo in a Sacramento Kings uniform (10:30 p.m. ET).
Ahead of the action, our expert panel breaks it all down.
1. Fact or fiction: The Pacers will be fighting for a playoff spot in April.
J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: Fact. “Fighting for.” I like that phrasing. It reminds me of how I’m “fighting for” six-pack abs. Ultimately, I think the Pacers’ pursuit will be just as frustrating as my quest for a flat stomach, because if Detroit is going to snag a playoff spot, I like Milwaukee’s chances of joining the field better than Indiana’s.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Fact. The East is shallow and wide beyond the top four, and the Pacers have enough talent to at least compete for one of the last few spots. Now, they have their fair share of obstacles in their way: George playing out of position, uncertainty at the center position between Ian Mahinmi (career backup) and Myles Turner (rookie), lack of backcourt depth, to name a few, but their starting five is good enough to keep them in the hunt.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Fact. That’s where Indiana is now, and while I think they’ll figure out the right balance between small-ball lineups and more traditional ones as the season goes on, I still see the Pacers’ shortcomings defending the paint leaving them around .500.
Michael Wallace, ESPN.com: Fact. It’s the Eastern Conference we’re talking about, after all. Nothing about the Pacers’ roster actually scares you. But you have to credit Larry Bird and Frank Vogel for completely reinventing the Pacers from the bulky, plodding team that could never get over the hump to a sleeker, quicker, small-ball squad that’s adapting to the new normal of the NBA. That said, one could be fighting for a playoff spot in the East almost despite hardly trying.
Calvin Watkins, ESPN.com: Fact. The Pacers will be in the mix toward the end of the season for a postseason berth. We’ve already seen some good victories over Detroit and Boston this week. Indiana should be very competitive in the weaker East. George is off to a good start as he works through a new position, power forward, and a new offense. Monta Ellis is a wild card here given he could be unpredictable with his shooting and attitude.
2. Fact or fiction: Hassan Whiteside will lead the Heat in PER this season.
Adande: Fact. Whiteside led the Heat in PER last season and finished among the top 10 in the league. And if Whiteside can simply match last year’s number (26.26) it would be higher than any Dwyane Wade season since 2011-12.
Elhassan: Fact. PER is skewed by high field goal percentage, rebounds (particularly on the offensive end) and blocks, all things that Whiteside excels at. Because his usage will probably not get too much higher than 20 percent, he’ll never have to fear the efficiency drop that comes with expansion of usage.
Pelton: Fact. That’s not a big improvement from last season’s 26.2 PER, which led Miami then. I don’t see Whiteside declining significantly or any other Heat player challenging him with a PER in the mid-20s.
Wallace: Fact. The most impressive thing about Whiteside’s impact so far this season is that he’s posting monster numbers without having many actual plays run for him at all. The fact that he can impact both ends of the court with just his length and timing says plenty. As long as he plays and stays healthy, he’ll be the most efficient player on the Heat this season, simply because he doesn’t take bad shots. Chasing down Wade and Chris Bosh in this department won’t be easy. But it’s doable.
Watkins: Fiction. It’s so early in the season and Whiteside is off to an excellent start. I just think Bosh, once he gets more comfortable after missing the majority of last season, will begin to show everybody he remains a top player at his position. This isn’t anything against Whiteside, it’s just that defenses will make adjustments to him to slow him down and there’s this other guy, Wade, who is going to take over.
3. Fact or fiction: We should be concerned about the Rockets’ slow start.
Adande: Fiction. The Rockets are within a game of the Spurs and Thunder, among others, and no one is sounding alarms on their behalf. James Harden‘s field goal shooting will climb over 30 percent, Ty Lawson will get more familiar with his new teammates. Maybe Dwight Howard‘s back will even get better.
Elhassan: Fiction. They’ve had a couple of injuries in the early going, but this is a team with known commodities and a defined style of play. They’ll hit their stride soon enough and this will all be a distant memory.
Pelton: Faction? I have some concerns about how they’ve defended with Lawson and Harden on the court together, but their shooting has been as atypically poor as their opponents’ shooting has been good. Add injuries at power forward and I don’t think this stretch is representative of Houston’s true ability.
Wallace: Fiction. But it’s on the verge of being a fact if these struggles persist for another couple of weeks, only because you can’t dig too deep of a hole in the West and expect to climb out in that mighty conference. The Rockets are dealing with attrition and chemistry problems because of Howard’s back and season-opening suspension as well as some natural kinks that will come with trying to work a new playmaker like Lawson into the mix. Soon, Harden will get back to being Harden and shoot this team back into the thick of things.
Watkins: Fiction. Sure the 0-3 start was unexpected but the Rockets didn’t have Howard for two of those games, Harden was shooting just 9 percent from 3-point range and Terrence Jones missed one game. Howard is just getting his sea legs after playing in just one preseason game because of a stiff back and there were numerous injuries that hurt the chemistry of the team at the start of the season. Once Harden gets going and Lawson finds a comfort level in the offense, the Rockets will get rolling again.
4. Fact or fiction: Rajon Rondo will resurrect his career with the Kings.
Adande: Fact. We’re going to see that National TV Rondo had nothing on Playing For A Contract Rondo. Plus he’s a guard who’s all about utilizing his teammates, and he has a lot more to work with in Sacramento than he had his last couple of years in Boston.
Elhassan: Fact … with the Los Angeles Kings as their new hotshot goalie.
Pelton: Fiction. Not unless he gets to play the Lakers’ defense every night.
Wallace: Fiction. Rondo admitted from the first days of camp that he and George Karl weren’t necessarily on the same page and had some issues to sort out. I’m not sure that can get done with two men as headstrong and driven to do things their own way as those two. Plus, Rondo’s deal is short and sweet. He’ll do just enough to recover some of his value that was torched in Dallas and then move on to the next stop of his enigmatic career.
Watkins: Fiction. I just think he’s done. The way it ended in Dallas was just embarrassing. You just don’t quit on your team the way Rondo did in the postseason last year. He does have lots to prove and I’m not sure if the skill set and the temperament in dealing with Karl will allow him to become an elite guard again. It kind of reminds me of how Vernon Maxwell quit on the Rockets in the mid-1990s during the postseason. He was never viewed the same way again.
5. Fact or fiction: George Karl will lead the Kings to the playoffs during his tenure as coach.
Adande: Fact. If the Kings are as committed to Karl as they seem, eventually the roster will stabilize enough for him to get it into the playoffs. Check his track record. Last year was his first losing season since 1987-88 and only the second time he missed the playoffs since then.
Elhassan: Fiction. This organization, under its current leadership, is far too volatile for sustainable success (and I don’t mean over the course of several years, I mean during the course of a single season) to occur, and that has nothing to do with the coaching. As long as decisions are made in a knee-jerk fashion, as long as the only constant is rampant change, as long as the owner continues to meddle, the Kings will remain the laughingstock they’ve been.
Pelton: Fiction. Hoping for the sake of our former ESPN colleague I’m wrong, but given Sacramento’s revolving door in the front office and on the sidelines, I’m not sure he’s going to get enough time to see the Kings amass playoff-caliber talent.
Wallace: Fiction. And it’s not necessarily an indictment of Karl. He could do a remarkable job of making the Kings respectable, but still fall outside of the playoff mix out West. There’s just not enough room to get in when you’re lining up talent- and chemistry-wise behind the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies, Rockets, Suns, Jazz and Mavericks among others.
Calvin: Fact. It might not happen this season but the confidence level is high on the Kings making the playoffs in the future. If ownership doesn’t meddle, then Karl and the front office have a chance to make gradual steps to the playoffs. DeMarcus Cousins is such a talented player and if the offense continues to run through him, the Kings’ arrow is pointing up.
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