Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 9 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for setting DFS lineups, as these are the players I’ll likely be filling out my cash lineups with on Sunday. As is the case each week, I’m ignoring the Thursday night game.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Raiders: Big Ben’s had a week to knock the rust off after coming back from his knee injury. At home against a Raiders team coming to the East Coast for an early start after a big home win against the Jets, Oakland is in a prime letdown spot while Pittsburgh needs a win after dropping a divisional game Week 8. A slimmed-down DeAngelo Williams is no slouch, but with Le’Veon Bell (torn MCL) out for the year, more is going to be on Big Ben’s plate. According to Rich Hribar’s Week 9 Worksheet, the Raiders have allowed a 250-yard passer 10 consecutive games dating back to last season. Oakland has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and this game has the third-highest over-under of Week 9 at 48 points.
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Starts
Tyrod Taylor vs. Dolphins: After missing Weeks 6 and 7 with a sprained MCL and the Bills coming off their bye, Taylor is ready to roll after practicing in full Wednesday. The long layoff is a bit concerning, but coach Rex Ryan said this is as healthy Taylor has been all year. Taylor had his best statistical game of the season against these same Dolphins in Week 3, completing 72.4 percent of his passes for 277 yards, three scores, and no picks. And that was on the road. He’s also averaged nearly 40 yards rushing per game across his five starts as an added bonus. Taylor’s surrounding parts look to be nearing health, as Sammy Watkins (ankle) is practicing and LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams will be available in the backfield after McCoy missed a decent chunk of the previous Miami-Buffalo matchup. The Dolphins have yielded the ninth-most fantasy points to passers.
Eli Manning at Bucs: Manning is coming off a 350-yard, six-touchdown assault of the Saints in a losing effort and heads back on the road in a similarly-attractive spot. The Bucs have been shredded via the pass, giving up 7.86 YPA, the second-most passing touchdowns, and third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Giants don’t have a running game to speak of, so this offense is going to operate through the air. New York runs the third-highest-paced offense in the league, while this game is tied with Oakland-Pittsburgh for the third-highest over-under of Week 9 at 48 points. Odell Beckham, after going bonkers in Week 8, gets another cake-walk, on-paper matchup.
Jay Cutler at Chargers: Cutler has been super-consistent the past four games, scoring no fewer than 17.2 fantasy points. He hasn’t topped 19.5 in that stretch, but we’re not looking for a monster game. San Diego’s once-dominant pass defense has crashed and burned the past couple weeks. With no Matt Forte (knee), the Bears will likely want more out of Cutler. Alshon Jeffery gets a dream matchup against shadow corner Jason Verrett, whom Jeffery has a five-inch and 40-pound advantage over. No. 2 receiver Marquess Wilson — with Eddie Royal (knee) out — will run the bulk of his routes at burnable No. 2 CB Brandon Flowers, who’s PFF’s third-worst cover corner out of 113 qualifiers. The Chargers’ pass-rush unit is ranked 30th in PFF’s team grades. The 49-point over-under is second-highest of Week 9, and San Diego is favored by just four.
Peyton Manning at Colts: The Broncos’ once-dead rushing “attack” came to life Week 8 against the Packers, taking pressure off 39-year-old Manning. With signs of life from C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, it makes defenses have to respect the pass. And Manning burned Green Bay for 340 yards. It was the best Manning had looked since Week 3. Might this be the start of a turnaround? We’ll see. The Colts don’t have a pass rush, Vontae Davis has looked human, and Indianapolis is coming off a short week after losing a heart-breaker to the Panthers on Monday night. Manning is coming back to the house he built, Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts are in a tailspin, and this game features two of the top-ten fastest-paced offenses. The Broncos are favored by five with an implied team total of 25 points. The Colts allow the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
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Sits
Teddy Bridgewater vs. Rams: Even with six teams on bye, Bridgewater is a bottom-five fantasy quarterback at home against a Rams defense that is right behind the Broncos in terms of eliteness. Denver and St. Louis has each allowed just five passing touchdowns. The Rams have PFF’s No. 1-ranked run defense, No. 5-ranked pass rush, and No. 6-ranked coverage unit. Bridgewater has topped 250 passing yards twice and tossed more than one touchdown once. Rams-Vikings has the lowest over-under of the week at 40 points and projects to be run-dominated.
Andrew Luck vs. Broncos: Luck is allegedly “fully healthy” after battling shoulder, ribs, and ankle issues the first eight weeks. Still, this is his toughest spot of the season, even at home. The Broncos are locking pass offenses down and surrendered just 77 yards passing to Aaron Rodgers in Week 8. Denver is allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It has yielded just five passing touchdowns, and is one of four teams to pick off more passes than its allowed touchdowns. The Broncos have PFF’s No. 2-ranked pass rush and No. 2-ranked coverage unit.
Blake Bortles at Jets: Bortles has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of garbage time. With a 40-point over-under and 2.5-point spread, Jaguars-Jets doesn’t project to get out of hand. The Jets’ strength is their run defense, but they still have a top-11 pass defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Bortles will likely be able to fire off a few deep balls, but is as equally likely to turn the ball over. Gang Green has 15 takeaways, good for sixth-most in the league.
Sam Bradford at Cowboys: Only Andrew Luck (12), Peyton Manning (11), and Matthew Stafford (11) have throws more interceptions than Bradford (10), and those three have each played eight games to Bradford’s seven. Among full-time starters, only Luck’s 6.34 YPA is worse than Bradford’s 6.45 mark. The Cowboys don’t take the ball away, with only four on the year, but Dallas’ offense is the slowest-paced unit in football, limiting the opposing team’s possessions. Bradford has been a train wreck, and the only things keeping him in the starting lineup are his salary and the fact that Mark Sanchez isn’t any better. Dallas allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to passers.
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