Lucky or good? Patriots winning coin tosses at nearly impossible rate

Cue the conspiracy theories.

The New England Patriots, fair or not, are now and forever synonymous with cheating — or at least as long as head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady are doing their thing. From Spygate to deflate-gate or any other “gate” they have been suspected of — bugged locker rooms, doctored energy drinks, icy hot in the athletic supporters, and the like — there has been a pall cast over this team.

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But they also win a lot. Games and coin flips, it turns out.

Skill or luck? As noted by the Boston Globe, the Patriots have won 19 of their past 25 coin flips, which is about a 1 in 189.5 probability (or 0.5% chance). Worse odds even than when the NBA’s Cleveland Cavailiers lucked their way into the top pick in the draft, able to take Kyrie Irving.

How does Belichick do it?

Assuming he, or someone else with the team, is not pulling a McNally and doctoring the coins, the Patriots are just getting lucky. But it’s what they’re doing with that luck that gives them an advantage.

Winning the toss typically means that NFL teams defer to the second half and opt to kick off to start the game to the opponent. Why give them first dibs at the ball? There are a number of reasons, but gaining second-half momentum, adjusting to weather conditions or getting a first look at how a team comes out offensively could give the Patriots a window into what kind of gameplan the opponent is trying to execute.

The Patriots tend to defer but not always.

“It’s one of the things we discuss prior to the game,” Belichick said. “We try to do what’s best for that particular game, for that particular situation. Sometimes we actually withhold that decision until we see what the actual field conditions are for that particular game — like last Thursday night.”

Of course, the headline suggests something funny is at work here — that’s a pretty incredible success rate for a supposedly 50-50 proposition. And if it was any other team receiving the luck, no one would bat an eye. But with the no-stone-unturned Patriots — or to some of you, Those Cheating Dogs — this has a foul scent to it.

But, sorry … we don’t expect Coingate to be a yearlong, NFL-driven saga. That wouldn’t be money well spent.

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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm