NFL Picks Week 9: Bengals, Patriots win; Saints squeak past Titans – NOLA.com

A wise man once said never bet against a streak of three or more. The New Orleans Saints have entered that territory.

As you’ll see in my pick below, it’s really tough to be sold on the boys in black and gold, considering just five weeks ago even the most optimistic Who Dat was ready to write off the season. But a rule is a rule (yeah I know I have a lot of goofy rules), and picking the Saints is a no-brainer.

So is picking the Patriots, Bengals, Broncos and Panthers. And when you make the rules, you can do cool things like ignore them when it’s convenient – such as a hot St. Louis team traveling to Minnesota.

That way, when you’re wrong you can say dumb things like, “See what happens when you break the rules.” Good luck! Let’s see if we can pick you some winners.

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It’s free, and the weekly winner will be mentioned here on Tuesdays. The season winner will be featured before the first playoff weekend.

(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and top readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to Mindy Affrime for being the Week 8 winner and the overall leader, Robert Hobbs.)

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Here we go with Week 7 (home team in bold):

16 points: NO PICK due to byes.

Last week: No pick due to byes. 16-point record: 2-1.

15 points: NO PICK due to byes.

Last week: No pick due to byes. 15-point record: 2-2.

14 points: NO PICK due to byes.

Last week: New England over Miami (W). 14-point record: 8-0. ATS, Patriots -7.5 (W)

13 points: CINCINNATI over CLEVELAND, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.

Finally a not-so-hot week for Andy Dalton, who has been doing his best Tom Brady imitation, and at the same time the Bengals running game had an average day at best. This, and they still were able to defeat a good Pittsburgh team on the road. Tells me all I need to know about how good they are. Against the spread: Browns plus-10.5.

Last week: Atlanta over Tampa Bay (L). 13-point record: 5-3. ATS, Falcons -7.5 (L)

12 points: NEW ENGLAND over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon

Saw a hilarious meme last week not politically correct enough for me to share here on our family site. Let’s just say it was suggesting the Patriots are mocking the NFL with each game they play. It’s nothing but the truth. All that being said, and I wouldn’t even wager a Barq’s on it, but I’m not giving more than two touchdowns to anyone. At least not this season. Against the spread: Redskins plus-14.5.

Last week: Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (W). 12-point record: 7-1. ATS, Bengals +1.5 (W)

11 points: NEW ORLEANS over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon

The new-look New Orleans Saints. Which is really the old-look New Orleans Saints. Everything is all happy, rosy sunshine in the Big Easy again. Call me whatever names you will, but I am not sold just yet. I don’t think they will blow this one, but it will be much closer than it should be. They have a long way to go to make this season right, even with the “easy” schedule that remains on the docket. It would not surprise me if they lost, and I love the under. Early warning: next week at Washington is a trap game. Against the spread: Titans plus-8.5.

Last week: Seattle over Dallas (W). 11-point record: 6-2. ATS, Cowboys +5.5 (W)

10 points: NY JETS over JACKSONVILLE, Sunday at noon

Even with a banged-up quarterback, there are six very winnable games in a row ahead for the Jets, who could become the biggest surprise entry into the playoffs – along with possibly Oakland and St. Louis. They must defeat the teams they’re supposed to beat if they’re going to get there. Against the spread: Offline as I write this. I’m taking the Jets at 6.5 or less. Anything more, and I’d go the other way.

Last week: Arizona over Cleveland (W). 10-point record: 5-3. ATS, Cardinals -4.5 (W)

9 points: NY GIANTS over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

So how many of you would have bet against the Giants had I guaranteed you they’d score 49 points last week? Of course, Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees, which should give this horrendous defense at least a little break. Against the spread: Giants minus-1.5.

Last week: St. Louis over San Francisco (W). 9-point record: 4-4. ATS, 49ers +8.5 (W)

8 points: SAN DIEGO over CHICAGO, Monday at 7:30 p.m.

It is no surprise the Chargers have not been able to get anything going, and are just about to their breaking point. But Chicago has been worse and having to travel cross-country to play in prime time doesn’t bode well for them. Against the spread: Chargers minus-3.5.

Last week: Carolina over Indianapolis (W). 8-point record: 4-4. ATS, Panthers -6.5 (L)

7 points: BUFFALO over MIAMI, Sunday at noon

After such a nice start, the Bills have settled into being average and have had a week off to think about consecutive losses, including one to Jacksonville. If Rex Ryan is going to right the ship, this is a must-win against a team that has fallen to Earth after a honeymoon with its new interim coach. Against the spread: Bills minus-2.5.

Last week: Baltimore over San Diego (W). 7-point record: 8-0. ATS, Chargers +3.5 (W)

6 points: ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO, 3:05 p.m.

What the heck was that last week? Oh, you’re asking me which team I’m talking about? Take your pick. While the 49ers were expected to lose, it was a bit surprising to see they failed to show up at St. Louis. And Atlanta losing to Tampa Bay at home? It’s at least three weeks before Matty Ice is supposed to start his annual choke act. That being said, the Falcons are just too talented to lose to Frisco. Against the spread: 49ers plus-4.5.

Last week: Minnesota over Chicago (L). 6-point record: 7-1. ATS, Vikings -2.5 (W)

5 points: CAROLINA over GREEN BAY, Sunday at noon

Although Carolina isn’t Denver, it’s sort of weird for a team as good as the Panthers to be getting points at home, despite the need for overtime on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Packers proved they’re not the same team away from Lambeau Field. Should be one of the day’s best, but I like the Panthers and LOVE the under. Against the spread: Panthers plus-2.5.

Last week: New Orleans over NY Giants (W). (Raise your hand if you had the over-100.) 5-point record: 6-2. ATS, Saints -3.5 (L)

4 points: ST. LOUIS over MINNESOTA, Sunday at noon

Having won three of four – with the only loss coming at Green Bay – the Rams are becoming one of the NFC’s top teams, especially with Mr. Gurley putting on a rushing clinic. Two tough defenses set to face off, but St. Louis should be able to do just enough to slow down Adrian Peterson and the Vikings. Against the spread: Rams plus-2.5.

Last week: Green Bay over Denver (L). 4-point record: 3-5. ATS, Packers -2.5 (L)

3 points: DENVER over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

If the Broncos didn’t get their point across last week that they are so much more than Peyton Manning then you didn’t watch that defense give Aaron Rodgers and the Packers fits. I’ll be surprised if this spread doesn’t rise a point or two before Sunday, and I am still taking Denver. Against the spread: Broncos minus-3.5.

Last week: NY Jets over Oakland (L – I hate when I talk myself into picking against a team I believe in). 3-point record: 0-8. (Sigh.) ATS, Jets -2.5 (L)

2 points: DALLAS over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.

Weird spread with Tony Romo still being out. And every time I see a weird spread I think should be a couple points the other way, it tells me Vegas knows something I don’t. And that’s all I need to know. You know? Against the spread: Cowboys minus-2.5.

Last week: Detroit over Kansas City (L). 2-point record: 4-4. ATS, Lions +5.5 (L)

1 point: PITTSBURGH over OAKLAND, Sunday at noon

No Le’Veon Bell the rest of the season is a tough break for Pittsburgh, but still Big Ben should have enough help with DeAngelo Williams to beat a young team crossing the country coming off a big, emotional win at home. Against the spread: Raiders plus-4.5.

Last week: Tennessee over Houston (L). 1-point record: 4-4. ATS, Titans +3.5 (L)

* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.

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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 8-6. Season: 74-45 (.622).

Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 6-8. Season: 53-66 (.448).

POINT TOTALS

Week 8: 82/105 possible points. Weekly rank: T41 out of 119. Overall: 658/948. Overall rank: 16 of 237.

Week 8 READERS winner: Mindy Affrime, 94/105.

Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 685/948.

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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)

Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS

Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS

Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS

Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS

Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS

Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS

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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr. 

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