Eight small-conference teams with Cinderella potential
Yahoo Sports’ 2015-16 college basketball season preview continues with a look at eight mid-majors with Cinderella potential this March. And for those wondering, you won’t find Wichita State, Gonzaga or any Atlantic 10 powers on this list. The Cinderella label doesn’t fit those programs.
1. VALPARAISO (28-6, 13-3 last year): With every rotation player back from a team that went 28-6 last year and pushed Maryland to the final possession in the NCAA tournament, Valparaiso enters the new season as an overwhelming favorite to win the Horizon League. In fact, the Crusaders have a chance to chase an at-large bid and not leave their fate to the Horizon League tournament if they can take advantage of opportunities for quality non-conference wins against Oregon, Oregon State, Rhode Island and Belmont. What made Valparaiso formidable last season was its blend of size, skill and outside shooting prowess. Alec Peters, a 6-foot-9 junior, led the Crusaders in scoring (16.8 ppg), rebounding (6.7 rpg) and 3-point shooting (.466). Six-foot-10 Vashil Fernandez is the Horizon League’s best rim protector and guards Darien Walker and Tevonn Walker are two-way standouts who both averaged double figures last year.
2. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (29-5, 17-1 last year): In the past three years, Stephen F. Austin has captured a trio of league titles and made back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances. The Lumberjacks have an excellent chance to extend both those streaks with every starter besides 2013-14 Southland Conference player of the year Jacob Parker back from last season. Stephen F. Austin’s most accomplished returner is reigning league player of the year Thomas Walkup, a do-it-all swingman who averaged 15.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season and connected on 61.2 percent of his shots in league play. Promising sophomore guard Ty Charles is also an all-conference candidate after averaging 10.2 points and 5.9 rebounds in league play as a freshman. Two years ago, Stephen F. Austin toppled VCU in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. Last year, the Lumberjacks suffered a narrow loss to Utah. Assuming they can repeat as Southland tourney champs, they’ll be a threat to pull another upset.
3. OLD DOMINION (27-8, 13-5 last year): For a team that won 27 games and upset VCU and LSU, Old Dominion ended last season with some regrets. The Monarchs fell out of Conference USA title contention with bad losses against Middle Tennessee and Texas-San Antonio and lost in the quarterfinals of the league tournament to eliminate hope of an NCAA bid. Old Dominion should have a chance to redeem itself this season with three starters back including senior guard Trey Freeman, the league’s leading returning scorer at 16.9 points per game. No other players averaged double figures last season, but the Monarchs typically won with defense and rebounding anyway. They led Conference USA in points per possession allowed and were in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. The loss of frontcourt starters Jonathan Arledge and Richard Ross hurts but junior Denzell Taylor and East Carolina transfer B.J. Stith are capable replacements. Taylor is a versatile defender who can guard multiple positions and Stith is an elite rebounder.
4. EVANSVILLE (24-12, 9-9 last year): While Northern Iowa and Illinois State both have realistic hope of emerging as the top challenger to Wichita State in the Valley, it’s Evansville who’s best positioned to ensure the Shockers don’t run away with the league title. The reigning CIT tournament champs return all five starters including first-team all-league standouts D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius, raising hope they could earn their first NCAA bid since 1999. Balentine, a prolific perimeter scorer, averaged more than 20 points per game both of the past two seasons. Mockevicius, who passed on the chance to turn pro in Europe this offseason, ranked fourth in the nation with 20 double-doubles last season. The addition of former junior college all-American Willie Wiley also gives Evansville something it has lacked recently — a true power forward to ease the interior burden on Mockevicius. The 6-foot-7 junior averaged 13.6 points and 8.3 boards his final year at Vincennes University in Indiana.
5. UC IRVINE (21-13, 11-5 last year): Wasted chances late in last year’s two-point NCAA tournament loss to Louisville may gnaw at UC Irvine, but the Anteaters can take solace in the fact that they shouldn’t be one-year wonders. They bring back 7-foot-6 Mamadou N’Diaye and seven other rotation players from their first-ever NCAA tournament team. N’Diaye’s injury-free offseason is cause for optimism after he missed 19 games last year with recurring foot problems. In the 15 he did play, he averaged 10.5 points per game and anchored the Big West’s best defense with his ability to alter shots. Dominant as N’Diaye can be, UC Irvine’s backcourt shouldn’t be overlooked. Senior point guard Alex Young is a four-year starter who has averaged at least 8.9 points per game every season while also producing at least a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Teammate Luke Nelson averaged double-digit points his first two seasons at UC Irvine and dished out four assists per game last year.
6. COLUMBIA (13-15, 5-9 last year): In a year in which Harvard may have lost too much talent to repeat as Ivy League champs, there are a trio of other teams capable of not only dethroning the Crimson but also putting a scare into an NCAA tournament foe. Yale has Ivy player of the year Justin Sears and several other standouts back from last year’s co-league champs, Princeton returns all five starters from a 16-win team, but the most talented squad may be Columbia thanks to the one-two punch of Alex Rosenberg and Maodo Lo. Rosenberg, a 6-foot-7 stretch forward who sat out all last season with a foot injury, averaged 16 points per game the previous year. Lo, a sweet-shooting 6-foot-3 guard, led the league in scoring at 18.4 points per game last season and is considered the Ivy’s top pro prospect. Those two will get ample scoring help from guards Grant Mullins and Kyle Castlin as well as top recruit Lukas Meisner. The real question, however, is whether Columbia will defend well enough to win the league. The Lions yielded an Ivy League-worst 1.07 points per possession last season.
7. BELMONT (22-11, 11-5 last year): Belmont’s two biggest league rivals lost their head coaches and their best players this past spring. That’s good news for a Bruins team that should be a prohibitive favorite to win the Ohio Valley Conference this season with four starters returning from a team that reached the NCAA tournament a year ago. Among those back is guard Craig Bradshaw, the league’s top returning scorer at 18.3 points per game. He’ll have help from ultra-efficient junior forward Evan Bradds and sharpshooter Taylor Barnette, hero of the Bruins’ thrilling OVC tournament title game victory over Murray State last March. Those three will ensure Belmont remains formidable offensively, but its defense that will determine if the Bruins are merely a good team or one capable of running away with the OVC title and doing damage in March. Belmont was 250th nationally in points per possession surrendered last season. Just a move toward the national average, and the Bruins could win 25-27 games this season.
8. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (22-14, 13-7 last year): When Shawn Long decided to return to school for his senior season last spring instead of entering the NBA draft, it instantly made Lousiana-Lafayette the favorite to dethrone Georgia State as Sun Belt Conference champs. The 6-foot-11 center averaged 16.4 points and 10.4 rebounds as a junior, upping his career total to 52 double-doubles. For Louisiana-Lafayette to win the Sun Belt and emerge as a threat to win a game in the NCAA tournament, the Ragin’ Cajuns need Long’s supporting cast to contribute consistently. Seven of the team’s eight leading scorers are back from last season including playmaking guard Jay Wright, combo guard Kasey Shepard and versatile 6-7 forward Devonta Walker. Last year, Louisiana-Lafayette’s biggest weaknesses were its turnover proclivity and a lack of outside shooting. If the Cajuns’ guards can solidify those weaknesses, that could go a long way toward making this a special season.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
