The Line: Notre Dame (-7.5)

Notre Dame ranks No. 5 on Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, nearly 40 spots ahead of No. 44 Pittsburgh. The raw F/+ difference between the Irish and the Panthers (33.2 percent) is greater than the difference between the Panthers and No. 91 Florida Atlantic.

Which is to say, basically, that this game is an even bigger mismatch than it seems. Pitt is 6-2 and was ranked as recently as last week, but it’s always been a minor sham. It’s much-improved and scrappy, but the talent and execution aren’t there.

Notre Dame played a better team (Temple, No. 35) on a bigger stage (College GameDay was in Philly for a night game) last weekend and won despite a pair of red-zone turnovers. It needed a late touchdown to avoid catastrophe, but it should have won that game by 10 points.

At Pitt, it should win by even more than that.

The Pick: Notre Dame (-7.5)

The Line: North Carolina (-8.5)

The “How do they come back from that?” angle has always been overrated.

Duke learned that the hard way against Miami, which responded to the worst loss in program history with a win last week in Durham. 

Now it’s time for the Blue Devils to pay it forward. The “How do they come back from that?” angle is ripe after Miami’s eight-lateral kick return—a play for which the ACC admitted ref malpractice and suspended the officiating crew that called it. It’s unclear how they’ll respond against their biggest rival and the quietly 7-1 North Carolina Tar Heels.

But Duke head coach David Cutcliffe—despite actor Rob Lowe’s complaints about him being “weak cheese”—should wake his team up for a road game in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils have a nice little defense, something UNC hasn’t seen since…well, pretty much all year.

According to the F/+ ratings, Duke is actually the better team in this game. My eye test agrees with those numbers.

The Pick: Duke (+8.5)

The Line: Clemson (-12)

Twelve points is just too much.

Clemson should win this game, and it might well be by two touchdowns, but you can’t not take the points and run.

Florida State has, after all, beaten Clemson three straight times. These teams are obviously different, with Clemson ranking No. 1 to Florida State’s No. 20 on the F/+ ratings, but three straight wins are still three straight wins, and 12 points are still 12 points.

No matter who starts at quarterback, Everett Golson or Sean Maguire, an offense led by running back Dalvin Cook and coached by Jimbo Fisher will find room to operate against a defense that just allowed 389 yards at N.C. State.

Cook missed last week with a hamstring injury but is practicing, per David Visser of Tomahawk Nation, and his absence allowed wide receiver Travis Rudolph to find his footing as a No. 1 option against Syracuse.

The Pick: Florida State (+12)

The Line: TCU (-5)

Neither of these teams has played anybody, but TCU has looked slightly better on the whole than Oklahoma State.

However, the Horned Frogs’ home-road FBS splits leave much to be desired. Per the S&P+ percentile numbers at Football Study Hall:

• Average Home Performance: 90th percentile
• Average Road Performance: 67th percentile

Compare that with Oklahoma State’s home-road FBS splits:

• Average Home Performance: 79th percentile
• Average Road Performance: 62nd percentile

All things considered, TCU has outplayed Oklahoma State. But the Road Horned Frogs have been worse than the Home Cowboys, and it’s not really all that close. The difference between the 79th percentile and 67th percentile is the difference between a Top 25 team and a Top 35 team. To get the former plus points is a rare bit of value.

Does that mean Oklahoma State will win outright? I wouldn’t go that far. But it should bring this game down to the wire.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (+5)

The Line: Ole Miss (-11)

It feels like Arkansas is trending up—but why? What has it really done?

According to the S&P+ ratings, its past five games have featured three below the 50th percentile and one below the 70th percentile. Just once (against Tennessee) has it looked like a Top 25 team, while thrice (against Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Alabama) it has played like it belongs sub-Top 60.

Ole Miss has posted some stinkers, but its up games have still been impressive. It is two weeks removed from devouring A&M—its second straight home game above the 90th percentile. Only once (against Vanderbilt) have the Rebels failed to reach that mark in Oxford.

Feels like a decent spot to lay the points.

The Pick: Ole Miss (-11)

The Line: Michigan State (-5)

After starting 0-6 against the spread, Michigan State has covered twice in a row.

That mark is misleading after Sparty padded late points against Indiana, but still: All improvement is welcome.

Nebraska will throw its best punch at Mark Dantonio’s team, knowing well that another loss ends its bowl hopes. If the 3-6 Huskers have a last stand within them, this would be the place it shows up.

But they don’t have that last stand within them. Or at least they didn’t look like they did at Purdue. The pass defense has been a trainwreck all season, and with MSU quarterback Connor Cook playing the best football of his career, the Spartans have the weapons to exploit that.

Across the line, Huskers quarterback Ryker Fyfe will likely make his second start. He played hard against the Boilermakers and proved he could move the ball in volume, but he also committed three costly turnovers.

MSU can be had in the secondary, but its defense makes enough plays to to run away with this by double digits.

The Pick: Michigan State (-5)

The Line: Washington (-1)

Beating Arizona by 46 points made a statement, but beating No. 13 Utah would send a message.

That will be Washington’s mindset when it hosts the Utes on Saturday. It’s coming off its best game under second-year head coach Chris Petersen, and as a result, it’s risen 21 spots to No. 19 on the F/+ ratings.

Funny thing about that ranking? It’s basically neck-and-neck with Utah. At first, this line looks weighted toward Washington, but in reality, the opposite is true. This line implies the Utes are a few points better, but these teams really have been more or less equal.

You might say Utah’s record disputes that, but records can be specious. Other specious arguments, such as the transitive property (“USC beat Utah, and Washington beat USC, so obviously…”), argue for the Huskies instead. None of that really means anything.

Focus on the signals, not the noise.

The Pick: Washington (-1)

The Line: Texas A&M (-7)

Last year, a down Texas A&M team upset a ranked Auburn team.

Can Auburn turn the table in 2015?

The answer depends on stopping Kyler Murray, the manic true freshman quarterback who starred in his first career start against South Carolina. Murray completed 20 of 28 passes for 223 yards, rushed 20 times for 156 yards and combined for three touchdowns in the 35-28 win.

“He was relaxed,” head coach Kevin Sumlin said on the SEC Network telecast, per Greg Wallace of Bleacher Report. “I thought he ran smart, slid, got on the ground and made plays when they were there, really didn’t force anything. That’s the biggest thing with a young guy, let the game come to him.”

Auburn’s defense forced Chad Kelly into turnovers against Ole Miss last week but still can’t be trusted down-to-down. Murray is a game-breaker who elevates the Aggies’ ceiling, and their defense should hold its own against an offense that’s looked better but still scored 19 points last weekend.

That 19 points count as “looked better” explains Auburn’s problems.

The Pick: Texas A&M (-7)

The Line: Ohio State (-23.5)

Ohio State solved its offensive problems, which appeared to be Cardale Jones problems, by inserting J.T. Barrett in the second half against Penn State. For roughly one week, things were merry.

And then they weren’t.

Barrett was arrested during the bye week for operating a vehicle under the influence, per Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com. Head coach Urban Meyer suspended him for one game, which means the return of The Cardale Show versus Minnesota.

When he last took meaningful snaps, Jones stumbled through a scoreless first quarter against the Nittany Lions. His big arm and frame make him a threat to record a highlight on any play, but he’s far less efficient on a down-to-down basis than Barrett.

Minnesota lost head coach Jerry Kill to early retirement and just lost a physical heartbreaker to Michigan. If not for the Barrett fiasco, I would rush to fade the Gophers because of the body-blow theory. But it’s hard to remount the Jones saddle after watching his prolonged struggles.

Not when he needs to cover 23.5 points.

The Pick: Minnesota (+23.5)

The Line: Alabama (-6.5)

In the battle of unstoppable force (LSU running back Leonard Fournette) versus immovable object (Alabama’s run defense), the edge as always goes to the defense.

Even generational talents such as Fournette can’t escape when there’s no room to run. And even a solid offensive line such as LSU’s can’t create room against A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Jonathan Allen, D.J. Pettway, Dalvin Tomlinson, Reggie Ragland, Reuben Foster, et al.

But scarier than Alabama’s No. 3-ranked run defense, per the S&P+ ratings, is its No. 1-ranked pass defense. Attacking through the air was supposed to be the best way to beat the Crimson Tide. Now it’s one of the quickest ways to lose.

Will LSU quarterback Brandon Harris make enough winning plays?

The Pick: Alabama (-6.5)

Northern Illinois at No. 20 Toledo (-8)

Tuesday night #MACtion pits Toledo against traditional conference powerhouse Northern Illinois. The Huskies had a funk in the middle of the season but have since won three straight games with an average performance in the 80th percentile of S&P+. Even in its three losses at Ohio State, Boston College and Central Michigan, NIU lost by seven, four and 10 points, respectively. Eight seems like a really big number.

The Pick: Northern Illinois (+8)

No. 2 Baylor (-17) at Kansas State

Kansas State has been a disaster. According to the S&P+ ratings, its past two games have been played in the seventh and 14th percentiles, and it hasn’t surpassed the 50th percentile since beating Louisiana Tech in mid-September. Even off a bye, in Manhattan, against a true freshman quarterback making his first career start, the Wildcats have no business hanging with Baylor. Jarrett Stidham gets off on the right foot.

The Pick: Baylor (-17)

No. 24 Mississippi State (-8) at Missouri

Missouri’s offense has gone from bad to tragic. It ranks No. 127 in points per game, No. 125 in S&P+ and hasn’t produced a touchdown since Oct. 3. Four of the Tigers’ past five games have been played below the 35th percentile, while the Bulldogs have played three straight above the 80th with an average of 88. It’s hard not to back Dak Prescott, even laying big chalk on the road.

The Pick: Mississippi State (-8)

No. 23 Temple (-11.5) at SMU

SMU was a cute story early when it covered against Baylor and TCU, but now it’s 1-6 with the lone win over North Texas. Chad Morris has worked wonders with a stillborn Mustangs offense, but the defense has lagged behind. It’s hard to peg how Temple will play after an emotional loss to Notre Dame. Here’s betting Matt Rhule gets his team up and ready; if he does, this line is six points too short.

The Pick: Temple (-11.5)

Vanderbilt at No. 11 Florida (-20.5)

It’s a prime letdown spot for Florida, which just pasted rival Georgia, and a prime bounce-back spot for Vanderbilt, which just lost 34-0 at Houston. The Commodores are better than they looked in Week 9, having beaten Missouri and hung close with Ole Miss this season. They’ve gone five straight SEC games without a 20-point loss, which makes them live dogs in Gainesville.

The Pick: Vanderbilt (+20.5)

No. 9 Stanford (-16) at Colorado

Colorado’s not as feisty as you think, having failed to perform in the 50th percentile against a Power Five opponent, but it’s feisty enough to hang close with the Cardinal at home.

Stanford has been a different team away from Palo Alto, starting the year with a loss at Northwestern, winning by just 18 at Oregon State and then barely beating Washington State last weekend. Yes, it also beat USC in Los Angeles, but this team still plays down to competition on the road, especially coming off an emotional win at Wazzu and looking ahead to next week against Oregon.

The Pick: Colorado (+16)

Cincinnati at No. 18 Houston (-9)

Houston ranks No. 31 on the S&P+ ratings. Cincinnati’s losses have all come against teams ranked in the 30s (Temple, 39; Memphis, 34; BYU, 38), with two of three losses by fewer than nine points. Houston just played its most complete game of the year against Vanderbilt—a big bad SEC school—and has a season-defining game next week against Memphis. Beware the letdown-lookahead sandwich.

The Pick: Cincinnati (+8)

No. 10 Iowa (-6.5) at Indiana

It’s getting harder to distrust Iowa. But for one more week…let’s roll the dice. Indiana has hung close against Ohio State and Michigan State—ignore the final score in East Lansing; the Hoosiers trailed by five until the late fourth quarter—and will test the Hawkeyes defense like no team before it. At the very least, that gives the Hoosiers a shot.

The Pick: Indiana (+6.5)

No. 22 UCLA (-17.5) at Oregon State

UCLA has not been a “blowout team.” Its last win by 17.5 or more points came against Arizona in late-September, and the Wildcats’ stock has tumbled in the five weeks since. But this seems like a ripe opportunity to get back on the right track. Oregon State is the Pac-12’s worst team by a considerable margin, ranking eight spots lower in F/+ than UNLV, which the Bruins beat 37-3 in Vegas.

The Pick: UCLA (-17.5)

Iowa State at No. 14 Oklahoma (-26)

Texas beat Oklahoma by seven, Iowa State beat Texas by 27, so Iowa State should beat Oklahoma by 34. Right? Or does the transitive property not work? It doesn’t, but this is still a nice number for the Cyclones. The Sooners have played four of five games above the 85th percentile of S&P+ with an average of 93 in those wins, but Iowa State stayed within 26 points against both TCU and Baylor. Why should this game be any different?

The Pick: Iowa State (+26)

Navy at No. 15 Memphis (-9)

It flies under the radar as a quality one-loss team, but take a look at Navy’s resume. The Midshipmen are 6-1 with decent-enough wins over Air Force and East Carolina and their only loss coming at Notre Dame. More to the point, Memphis has an FBS-average run defense, which leaves it vulnerable against Keenan Reynolds and Navy’s triple-option. These teams are more even than people realize.

The Pick: Navy (+9)

Week 9 Record: 8-8-0 (50.0 percent)

Overall Record: 76-78-2 (49.7 percent)

Note 1: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All Week 10 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders. 

Note 2: There is no early line for Rutgers at No. 16 Michigan. Scarlet Knights receiver Leonte Carroo and Wolverines quarterback Jake Rudock are questionable to play with injuries, so sportsbooks have abstained from posting numbers. That is why the game is absent.