2015-16 MLB Offseason: 10 trade and free-agent predictions – CBSSports.com
The 2015-16 offseason is officially upon us. The Royals clinched the 2015 World Series title with their win over the Mets on Sunday night, and, at 9 a.m. ET Monday, a total of 139 players became free agents. Here’s the list.
As always, the 2015-16 offseason promises to be action packed, with huge free-agent contracts handed out and blockbuster trades going down. The second wild-card spot has made it easier for teams to get to the postseason, so they’re all looking to make moves to put themselves in position to play in October.
So, with the offseason now underway, here are 10 possibly bold, possibly ridiculous, maybe eventually correct predictions for the winter. Just to be clear, this is all speculation. There’s no insider information here. Feel free to bookmark this post for future mocking purposes.
1. Jason Heyward gets $200 million, with a catch.
Heyward is the best free agent on the market, in my opinion. He just turned 26 in August and teams view him as an above-average offensive player and elite defensive outfielder whose best years are still ahead of him. Players Heyward’s age almost never hit free agency. He’s going to be in very high demand.
That’s why I think he’ll end up with a $200 million contract. Maybe he falls a little short and gets something like nine years and $198 million, but he’ll be in that $200 million ballpark. But there’s a catch: The contract will also include an opt-out clause after year three, allowing Heyward to become a free agent again at age 29, and potentially land an even bigger contract.
These opt-out clauses are beginning to be the norm for these huge deals. Zack Greinke will exercise his opt-out clause and become a free agent this winter. CC Sabathia leveraged one into an extension with the Yankees a few years ago. Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton and Masahiro Tanaka all have opt-out clauses as well.
An escape clause seems like something Heyward’s representatives will/should insist on getting during contract talks, so that way Heyward can go back out into free agency if he breaks out and has some monster seasons during his peak years from 2016-18.
2. Yasiel Puig gets traded.
I get the feeling Puig has worn out his welcome in Los Angeles. He’s not necessarily a malcontent, but he is a bit of a headache and can be a distraction with his occasionally late arrivals to the ballpark and whatnot. I think the new Andrew Friedman-led regime is ready to move on.
Possible suitors? Boy, there are plenty. The Orioles, Angels, Blue Jays, Tigers, Nationals, Marlins and Cubs all stand out as possibilities. Wouldn’t Puig be a smash hit in Miami? Add him to Stanton, Dee Gordon and Jose Fernandez and gosh, you’ve got the most exciting collection of players in baseball, I’d say.
3. Chris Davis gets a shockingly big contract.
Davis is one of my favorite players to watch because his home runs appear so effortless. I mean, look at this:
He flicked his wrists and the ball went 400 feet to the opposite field. Geez.
Davis has huge power, the kind of power that will play in any ballpark, and he’ll be a popular free agent despite his strikeout woes. My guess is whenever Davis does sign, a lot of people will be shocked by the size of his contract. Five years and $100 million seems like the floor to me.
4. Marcell Ozuna gets traded.
This is sort of cheating because the Marlins have already indicated a willingness to trade Ozuna. Scott Boras, Ozuna’s agent, called the team out for sending Ozuna to Triple-A this season, saying the move was made for service time reasons rather than performance reasons. That didn’t go over too well with owner Jeffrey Loria.
Ozuna is still only 24 and he’s a year removed from hitting 26 doubles and 23 home runs with a 114 OPS+ and strong center field defense, leading to 4.5 WAR. He also can’t become a free agent until after the 2019 season. Plenty of clubs figure to have interest in a young two-way outfielder like Ozuna. The Indians and their pitching depth could be a match.
5. Johnny Cueto gets his $100 million-plus.
Cueto had two brilliant performances in the postseason but was generally uneven and unpredictable with the Royals. He had some real stinkers. Coming into the season he was looking at six years and $150 million easily — Jon Lester money — but his rough stint in Kansas City and, more importantly, lingering concerns about his elbow may hurt his stock.
My guess is Cueto still gets a nine-figure contract, though now it may be more like five years and $110 million rather than six and $150 million. Only Kershaw (176 ERA+) and Greinke (142 ERA+) have been better at keeping runs off the board than Cueto (140 ERA+) since the start of the 2012 season. He’s still going to get paid.
6. The Red Sox trade for a top starter, but not an ace.
New president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already told reporters adding an ace-caliber starter is a goal this offseason. David Price is a free agent, and Dombrowski had Price with the Tigers, so there has been some speculation the two could match up again in Boston.
I think Dombowski will instead dip into the team’s collection of young players and trade for a top starter, but maybe not someone considered an ace by most. Tyson Ross of the Padres stands out as one possibility. Carlos Carrasco of the Indians is another. The Red Sox have all sorts of young players to offer — infielders, outfielders, pitchers, you name it.
7. Matt Wieters doesn’t sign until after spring training starts.
The Orioles are expected to make Wieters the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer, entitling them to draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. Wieters is a Boras client and Boras clients almost always go out onto the open market looking for the largest payday.
Catchers are in very high demand, and while Wieters is rather excellent when healthy, he was limited to only 26 games in 2014 and 75 games in 2015 due to Tommy John surgery. After returning this year, he started back-to-back days at catcher only five times.
Elbow reconstruction is a serious procedure for catchers and teams could have some hesitations when pursuing Wieters this offseason. Throw in Boras’ inevitably aggressive demands and Wieters could find himself unsigned when spring training starts, a la other Boras clients like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales two years ago.
8. The Padres make at least one blockbuster trade.
Last year, not a week went by without the Padres making a blockbuster move in the offseason. Or at least it felt that way. New GM A.J. Preller aggressively remade his ballclub and, well, it didn’t work. They went from 77-85 in 2014 to 74-88 in 2015.
Preller will again make a blockbuster this offseason, though with different motivations. He’s going to look to create some payroll flexibility and replenish the farm system this time around. The easiest way to do that is by dealing closer Craig Kimbrel, who is owed $24 million from 2016-17. Kimbrel’s name was floated before the trade deadline, remember.
9. The Royals re-sign Alex Gordon or Ben Zobrist, but not both.
The Royals have several important players hitting free agency this offseason, including Gordon, Zobrist, Cueto and Ryan Madson. (Gordon is expected to decline his $12.5 million player option.) The team’s payroll climbed from $81 million in 2013 to $92 million in 2014 to $113 million in 2015, and chances are it’ll go up again thanks to their World Series win. Playoff revenue is a beautiful thing.
That said, the Royals are not a big market club, and retaining all of their free agents just isn’t possible. They reportedly want to keep both Gordon and Zobrist, but my guess is they can only work out a deal with one. I bet it’s Gordon, the homegrown player who grew up a Royals fan not too far away in Nebraska. Zobrist is excellent, but he was a rental player. Gordon’s been around for the long haul.
10. The Mets have a disappointingly low-key offseason.
The Mets were three wins away from winning the World Series this year. Like the Royals, they have some important players due to hit free agency, most notably Yoenis Cespedes, Daniel Murphy, Bartolo Colon and Tyler Clippard. The team is expected to let Cespedes and Murphy walk, though they could end up retaining Colon and to a lesser likelihood Clippard.
Even with all the postseason revenue, the Mets aren’t likely to spent much this offseason, mostly because they’re going to owe significant arbitration raises to Matt Harvey and Lucas Duda, among others. MLB Trade Rumors projects $4.7 million and $6.8 million salaries for Harvey and Duda in 2016, respectively.
The Mets could use another bat or two, plus some pitching depth, but history suggests they will not make a big splash and instead look at mid-range free agents. After being thisclose to a world championship, that would qualify as a disappointing offseason, especially for a team in the game’s largest market.
What happens to Yasiel Puig and Matt Wieters this offseason? (USATSI)
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