Royals stun Mets in Game 4 to take 3-1 WS lead

In Game 4 of the 2015 World Series, the Royals shocked the Mets by a score of 5-3 (box score), and now the series stands at 3-1 in favor of Kansas City. Here are the key takeaways from a wild Game 4 at Citi Field …

1. The Royals notched their seventh comeback win of the 2015 postseason.

In this very space, we not long ago broke down the Royals’ six comeback wins this postseason. Well, after Game 4 you can make it seven comeback wins. Here’s how it looked on the win-expectancy chart …

Source: FanGraphs

As you can see, the Mets had an 84.6 percent chance of winning Game 4 one into that fated eighth inning. A couple of grounders to the right side later, and things looked drastically different. All of this would be surprising if it weren’t the Royals’ way of doing things over the last month or so.

2. Alcides Escobar continues to thrive.

The Royals’ shortstop and leadoff man entered Game 4 batting .356/.375/.559 for the 2015 postseason and .267/.267/.600 for the 2015 World Series. The freshly crowned ALCS MVP kept it going on Saturday night with his first inning single off Steven Matz.

And that brings us to …

This is a hitter who in the 2015 regular season batted .257/.293/.320, which is inadequate even for a slick-fielding shortstop. In the playoffs, though, it’s been a reversal of fortunes for Escobar.

3. Wade Davis still hasn’t allowed a run this postseason.

After Saturday night’s two-inning, high-leverage save, Davis has now worked 9 2/3 innings this postseason without allowing a run. Throw in his work in the 2014 postseason, and Davis now boasts a playoff ERA of 0.38 as a Royal. Over that span of 24 innings, he’s struck ot 35 against just five walks.

4. Royals starting pitchers have struggled on the road this postseason.

Coming into Game 4, there was this unfortunate figure staring down the KC rotation …

Sure, Johnny Cueto‘s blow-up in Game 3 of the ALCS (2 IP, 8 ER) skews the numbers a bit, but remove his start from the calculus and the Royals’ starters still have a road ERA of 6.84 this postseason.

As for Game 4, KC starter Chris Young didn’t pitch poorly, but his two earned in 4.0 innings scales to a 4.50 ERA for the night. Hey, after those late-inning results, the Royals will take it.

5. Terry Collins probably left Steven Matz in too long.

It wound up not costing him the game, but the Mets’ manager probably should’ve had a quicker hook with the young lefty. Matz had allowed a run and flirted with allowing more in a 19-pitch fifth inning. Collins allowed Matz to bat in the home half of the fifth with one out, after Conforto had homered for the second time, and ahead of Curtis Granderson and David Wright. Then, facing the meat of the KC order for the third time in the game, Matz allowed a double to Ben Zobrist and an RBI single to Lorenzo Cain. He left without retiring a batter in the frame. Matz pitched well, but his troubles to start the sixth were foreseeable.

6. Yoenis Cespedes still isn’t hitting.

Cespedes was an absolute thumper for the Mets after being acquired prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, as he put up an OPS of .942 with 17 homers in 57 games. The postseason, however, has been less kind to the slugging free-agent-to-be. He came into Saturday night’s tilt batting .234/.245/.383 for the current playoffs and .154/.143/.154 in the World Series. In Game 4, he went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts (and a critical error on the bases that lead to the game-ending double play).

7. Michael Conforto joined rare company with his two homers.

With his third-inning, 395-foot home run, Mets rookie Conforto achieved this footnote …

Conforto is 22. As it turns out, he wasn’t done, as Conforto in the sixth would hit his second homer of Game 4, this one measuring 390 feet. Relevant …

Is the power for real? During the regular season, he slugged .502, put up an impressive Isolated Power (ISO) of .232, and tallied an extra-base hit every 7.6 at-bats. As well, the ball in 2015 left his bat at 93.27 mph versus a league-average mark of 89.28 mph. In the minors, Conforto didn’t quite show that level of raw power, but he spent his time in pitcher’s parks and pitcher’s leagues for the most part (bear in mind he skipped over Triple-A Las Vegas).

So more to come from Conforto, one assumes.

8. The Royals continue to deliver with runners on base.

The Royals during the current playoffs had been batting a robust .343/.404/.435 with runners on base entering Saturday night. In Game 4, they went 4-for-10 in such spots. Now, that kind of thing isn’t sustainable or a reflection of genuine team-wide skill (for instance, the Royals in the regular season ranked a good-but-not-great fifth in the AL in OPS with runners in scoring position). That said, it’s a heck of a way to win some games when the chips are down.

9. Daniel Murphy‘s eighth-inning error was one of the most costly in World Series history.

Here’s the play …

And here are the numbers …

That means Murphy’s miscue — that one single play — reduced the Mets’ chances of winning Game 4 by a whopping 35 percent. Only Bill Buckner’s error in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series against the Mets grades out as more costly, at least insofar as the Fall Classic is concerned.

10. The Mets face long odds.

The Mets are down 3-1, which means they’re tasked with winning three in a row from the Royals, two of which would be back in Kansas City. Throughout history just 12 of 79 teams (15.2 percent) down 3-1 in a best-of-seven series have come back to win said series. In this particular situation, with the Mets’ having to play Games 6 and 7 on the road, just six of 42 teams (14.3 percent) have pulled that off.

The last team to come back from 3-1 to win the World Series? That would be the 1985 Royals.

The Royals are one win away from hoisting the trophy. (USATSI)

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