As part of my year-long experiment to bet against every instinct that I have, the people at Oddsshark asked me to join their team in the Westgate SuperContest this year. My strategy all along has been to acknowledge the fact that I am the world’s biggest square when it comes to gambling, and therefore it would follow that the opposite of my real picks would be goo.

Some of this week’s picks are so bad that it gave me physical pain to go back and change them all at the last minute. That has to mean I’m on the right track. I hope.

Last week: 3-2

Total: 18-17

This week’s picks (Home team in CAPS):

Chiefs -5 over Lions (London game)

Anything can happen in crazy London town. The Chiefs have pretty much been a disaster against the spread this year and probably every year. I’m also maintaining my theory that the Lions have more talent, and are a better team than they’ve displayed so far, despite all evidence to the contrary. I basically see an offense with Calvin Johnson in it and I assume that they will throw three passing TDs every game. Plus, Jim Bob Cooter is the kind of guy who will breathe some life into your offense, because frankly anything is an upgrade at this point.

I wouldn’t trust Andy Reid to make smart time management decisions even if Big Ben is parked at midfield. Everything in my bones say to take the Lions and that five points is a ludicrous amount of points to take away from that terrible Chiefs offense. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last minute to Chiefs -5.

RAMS -8.5 over 49ers

Hmm, so you’re telling me I can bet on the Rams spotting a divisional rival more than a TD in a Jeff Fisher trap-game special? Yes, please. Jim Tomsula’s getting desperate, and this is a man who above all else, has parlayed desperation into being one of the top 32 most current professional football coaches in the world. Tomsula feels right at home when he’s backed into a corner. Todd Gurley is a beast but having a dynamic running threat (finally) also means that the Rams have a viable option when it comes to killing the clock in the second half after they ostensibly jump out to a lead. None of these accidental 50-yard, garbage-time passing TDs. 49ers are my lock of the week. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last minute to Rams -8.5.

STEELERS (pick ’em) over Bengals

Let’s see shall we? The Bengals are really good, and the Steelers have been white-knuckling it through Ben Roethlisberger’s absence. Well big Ben’s back but he’s returning to face the undefeated Bengals who are also undefeated against the spread this season at 5-0-1. Toss in the fact that they’re coming off a bye and I really like the Bengals to steal one on the road against Pittsburgh.

But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last minute to the Steelers.

RAIDERS +2.5 over Jets

Tough to look at any betting trends for the Raiders when this years’ team looks to be dramatically less terrible than in years past. I would go so far as to say that they look like a team that could compete for a wild card spot over the next few years. But you could say the same about the Jets, who have the best rushing defense in the NFL. Combine that with the Raiders 31st ranked ground game and this figures to be a low scoring affair that would favor the Jets, who are used to playing that type of game.

The public loves this Jets team, and for good reason: New York has gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine. Vegas is seeing 63 percent of all wagers for this game falling on the Jets side. And I would add myself to that list. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to the Raiders +2.5.

BRONCOS +3 over Packers

65 percent of the public is betting Packers and it’s easy to see why. They’re 5-1 ATS on the year, and 6-0 ATS for the last half-dozen seasons coming off their bye week. They seem to be able to outscore anyone, which in theory wouldn’t be that challenging given the Broncos anemic offense.

Denver’s D is great at creating big plays and forcing turnovers, but the Packers have actually been slightly better than the Broncos in terms of points allowed (16.83 to 17). There appears to be something physically wrong with Peyton Manning, and it’s been affecting his mental game as well to the point where I don’t see him outscoring the Packers — even at home. This would be a huge win for Green Bay, and I think they have the team to do it now that Mike McCarthy is no longer calling plays.

But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Broncos +3.

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