Spread Options: Dr. Saturday’s Week 9 picks against the spread

Back to .500 after a 4-6 week at 37-37-6. Blah.

Nebraska at Purdue (+7.5), Noon ET: Upset? Maybe. Ryker Fife is starting at quarterback for Nebraska after Tommy Armstrong was declared out. Nebraska is likely a much better team than its record because of all the close games its lost this year. But given the way that Nebraska’s season has gone, it’s impossible to predict against a close game again, especially with a backup quarterback.

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-16.5), Noon ET: This is simply a bounceback pick. Texas A&M is one frustrated football team at the moment and South Carolina is a good opportunity to release those frustrations. If the A&M offense can’t get back on track against the Gamecock defense, it’s not going to get in sync against anyone.

Ole Miss (-7) at Auburn, Noon ET: The Tigers are playing better, even if Will Muschamp’s defense isn’t exactly stellar this year. But if Auburn wants to win this game, Sean White has to throw a touchdown. He has no passing touchdowns in his four starts this season. He may get one, but we like the Ole Miss defense here. Ole Miss is much better than Arkansas is.

UCF at Cincinnati (-27.5), Noon ET: We’re going to simply keep picking against UCF until the Knights are competitive. We’re not sure that this will be the day that UCF is competitive. The Cincinnati offense can be explosive and UCF has given up less than 30 points twice in 2015. Those games were against Florida International and Furman. Yikes.

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Boston College, 12:30 p.m. ET: This has the lowest over/under of the weekend (38). And with good reason. The Eagles once again proved that they’re a team with endless defense and no offense against Louisville, which is why we like Virginia Tech to win by a field goal or more here. This game will also probably hit the under too.

Clemson (-10) at North Carolina State, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Wolfpack are breaking out the special uniforms for this one. It won’t be enough. Clemson has shed the Clemsoning label and while this can be a trap game as the Tigers look ahead to Florida State next week, we’re confident it won’t happen. DeShaun Watson is the best player on the field and it’s not even close.

Oklahoma at Kansas (+39.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: Week 9 isn’t a very fun week. And we’re picking this game not because the week is terrible, but because it’s time to be nice to Kansas. If Oklahoma jumps out to to a big lead in the first half, we envision the Sooners letting up in the second half. Or maybe Kansas will keep it (relatively) close throughout the entire game.

Michigan at Minnesota (+13), 7 p.m. ET: This one is for retired Minnesota coach Jerry Kill. The Gophers may not pull off the upset, but the ingredients are there for a close game. Tracy Claeys performed well as the interim coach in 2013 and should have Minnesota well-prepared for the fighting Harbaughs. The over/under (38.5) on this game seems about perfect. Something like 23-17 sounds right.

Texas at Iowa State (+5.5), 7 p.m. ET: Upset special of the week. Every year it seems that Iowa State gives someone a major scare or pulls off a big upset. This is that game. The Cyclone defense played well against Baylor on Saturday and forced the Bears into the most punts of the season. As you know, Baylor’s offense is a bit more powerful than Texas’. It may be ugly, but the Cyclones get the win.

Tennessee at Kentucky (+9): The Vols are having to stay in Cincinnati Friday night. We’re not picking Kentucky on the strength of that, however. Tennessee can be a maddeningly inconsistent team; even within the same game. And both of these teams have a propensity for close games. Until last week, all of Kentucky’s games had been decided by eight points or less. The only two Tennessee games that haven’t been within seven points are wins against Bowling Green and Western Carolina.

NOT-SO-LOCKS OF THE WEEK

Nick Bromberg (3-5): Georgia at Florida (-2), 3:30 p.m. ET: This pick comes on the heels of the report that third-string QB Faton Bauta will be starting for Georgia. Bauta is more a of a running threat than Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, so the Georgia hope is that he’ll give Florida’s defense fits. I’m not so sure about that. Florida essentially clinches the SEC East in Jacksonville.

Sam Cooper (2-6): Illinois at Penn State (-4), Noon ET: Neither of these teams is very good (neither are my picks), but Penn State has a clear edge with its defense – especially at home. Illinois will be without starting running back Josh Ferguson for a third straight week, which will force the Illini and Wes Lunt to throw early and often. Penn State’s heavy pass rush will be the difference here in a messy, low-scoring game.

Graham Watson (1-6-1): Rutgers (+20) at Wisconsin, Noon ET: There are two reasons why I like this line: 1) Rutgers is not this bad; 2) Wisconsin doesn’t blow out conference opponents. Wisconsin’s biggest margin of victory against a conference foe this year was 17 points against Purdue and I think Rutgers is a bit better than Purdue. Rutgers won’t win this game, but it will keep it closer than three touchdowns.