The Breakdown: Cashing In on the Hype
There are a couple of things you learn in this job after a decade or so. One is to get off bad predictions as fast as you can. Two, don’t get too high or too low on things at the end of the first night of action. That’s an easy recipe for disaster.
I had C.J. McCollum ranked at No. 87 and 105 in 8- and 9-cat leagues, based on averages of 17.3 points, 15.8 field goals, 41 percent from the field, 83 percent foul shooting, 2.75 boards, 3.85 assists, 0.15 blocks, 1.2 steals and 2.24 turnovers per game in 32 minutes per contest and 74.5 games played.
That’s a damn good year for a promising young player who by all accounts ‘gets it’ and should give us a ton of excitement this season.
That said, I’m not ready to get off my projection after one night.
In order to best this projection, the thinking here is that McCollum will need to join this historic list of players that shot better than 42 percent while chucking up this volume of shots and threes (thank you Basketball-Reference.com for the numbers).
The fact that he plays for a bottom-tier team isn’t necessarily warming me up to the idea that he can hold his efficiency, because life is harder on a bad team, but especially when so many players before him haven’t been able to do it on good teams.
It’s a simple concept. The more you shoot the less you make.
But then again Steph Curry wasn’t thought of as Steph Curry until he was Steph Curry. Maybe McCollum can do it. And Isaiah Rider and Aaron Brooks made this list with less than 6.0 win shares, so things like this can happen.
I just don’t think one game against a team coming off a back-to-back against the champs, with a new coach and system, with everybody injured — literally limping into the Rose Garden with a broken Jrue Holiday and cut-by-the-Sixers Ish Smith – as they’re looking ahead to another rematch against the Warriors – is definitive enough to believe whatever the hype is at this point.
If I up his field goal percentage to 44 percent, which is extremely optimistic on the volume I propose above, he finishes in the top 60-80 players. What if we up his field goal attempts because he’s really going to shoot the crap out of the ball? Are we saying he holds onto that efficiency? Derrick Rose and Kobe Bryant are the most recent casualties of that line of thinking, but if he doesn’t completely fold percentage-wise then how far can he really climb?
My point is this – this might be the best sell-high moment you have on a guy this year. I don’t know how the average reader can see 37 points and the hyped up headlines and not think that he’s an early round play. Maybe he can be, but as you can see by the numbers he has an uphill climb.
The Blazers don’t play until Friday. McCollum owners, your clock is ticking.
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SIXTH MAN IN THE SKY
The Wolves played with heavy hearts and got a win in an emotional opener following the passing of Flip Saunders. Ricky Rubio had consistently slipped in drafts and came out firing to the tune of 28 points on 10-of-17 shooting with two rebounds, 14 assists, one steal, two treys and 6-of-7 makes from the line. Hopefully you drafted accordingly. Karl-Anthony Towns went for 14 and 12 in his debut but did not have a steal or block, and yet it was a total success as he most definitely looked the part.
Andrew Wiggins may have been struggling with a shoulder issue or maybe he just faded to the background with Rubio taking on so much offense. Either way, his 2-of-10 shooting for nine points (5-of-6 FTs) with practically no other stats is a perfect buy low opportunity. There’s been so much anti-hype about him on this site that you can probably steal him for a top-75 guy right about now.
Gorgui Dieng was very high in the B150 and came with a disclaimer about a slow start and that was definitely the case last night. He did manage to finish with a steal and two blocks, but even those came late and paired next to four points and four boards he was definitely ‘slow.’ Let’s see how he does in his next game before making sit/start choices.
SAME OLD STORY
We got answers on how the Lakers intend to deploy Kobe Bryant, as he logged 29 minutes and went 8-of-24 from the field for 24 points, three treys, four rebounds, one assist, two steals and 5-of-5 from the line. He really ran out of gas as the game went on and if anybody deserves some slack to be cut it’s a guy coming off two major injuries at his age. But therein lies the rub, and both owners and Lakers fans should hope that he stays in this mpg range but cuts those shots down by a third. That’s not how it works in L.A. so things should be interesting from night to night.
Roy Hibbert was able to live at the foul line and by virtue of 10 perfect free throws he went for 12 and 10 with four assists and two blocks in his 28 minutes. He has looked a bit edgy and definitely in better shape than he was in Indiana this past year. I’m not ruling him out as a top-100 guy but he has a lot to prove still. Julius Randle went for 15 and 11 but had no defensive stats. Get used to that.
D’Angelo Russell really fell down my rankings as it became clear that he wasn’t going to be a Towns-like rookie that is immediately effective like a veteran would be. That’s okay – very few players can clear that bar in their first year. He managed just four points on 2-of-7 shooting with three boards and two assists, and came away with some quotes that sounded like a guy frustrated his teammates weren’t catching passes. So basic rookie stuff. Jordan Clarkson, Kobe, the backup guards, and even Randle make Russell’s handling a luxury and not a necessity so the Lakers can bring him along slow, which is probably best for his development anyway. I think he has a 2-3 week ramp before he can be used but that’s just a wild guess.
Clarkson hit 5-of-12 shots for 14 points, four boards and three assists with no money counting stats. That’s the book on him and with other ballhandlers his assist numbers will be capped. My sense is that he will be a consistent late-round value and never really budge from that valuation.
FEELING IT OUT
The Jazz got tagged with a loss in Detroit and they looked like a team trying to figure out their new wealth of options on offense. Gordon Hayward was left out of the offense for spells and finished with 13 points on 5-of-11 shooting, four rebounds, one assist, one steal and one block. I’d bet that doesn’t happen the next time out. Derrick Favors took advantage of Ersan Ilyasova to the tune of 26 points on 10-of-15 shooting with six boards, one steal and one block. With all the mouths to feed in Utah I’m not as high on him as most, but only by a round or two.
Rodney Hood fired off 15 shot attempts and missed all seven of his threes, finishing with 12 points, four boards and six assists. He’ll come back to center a little bit and give those looks back to Hayward, but I like his late-round floor and hint of mid-round upside. Alec Burks (18 points, six boards, one assist, no money counting stats) is just as talented and also a late-round value, but fantasy deficiencies make him a more stable late-round asset with less upside than Hood.
YOUR UNDEFEATED DETROIT PISTONS
Andre Drummond hit 5-of-11 shots last night and had a solid 18 and 10 with one steal and two blocks. He even hit 8-of-11 freebies, but don’t hold your breath waiting for that every night. He needs to be a high field goal percentage guy to sniff the hype in fantasy circles, and the bugaboo here is that Stan Van Gundy is feeding him in the post with an eye on the future. Right now he’s not looking like a great bet to go over 60 percent, and the hope is that he doesn’t tumble down toward 55 percent or worse.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been having a nice preseason and though his limited fantasy stat-set won’t change due to Jodie Meeks’ Jones fracture (foot), he will have a better floor. He should be owned in most standard formats. Marcus Morris is getting heavy minutes and can be evaluated as a late-round guy for now, while Stanley Johnson may not be worth the squeeze as a stash – though you may wait a week or so before making that evaluation. The 20-24 minutes freed up by Meeks’ injury can’t hurt.
Ersan Ilyasova (eight points, two threes, elbow issue, 22 minutes) has never been a big minute guy so if you’re squeezing late-round value in the next week or so that’s probably a win.
GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS
The Hornets have an uphill climb no matter how one slices it and rumors about Steve Clifford’s job aren’t going to help matters, for what it’s worth. The good news was somewhat there, as Al Jefferson looks fit and ended up with 17 points and five boards with one steal, but he didn’t play the last 15:44 of the game as the Heat went small.
Similar good-news, bad-news stuff hit the rest of the lineup, as Jeremy Lin scored 17 points with two threes and 5-of-6 freebies but not much else, and Kemba Walker scored 19 points with 8-of-9 makes from the line, four boards, four assists, two steals, one block and one three. Walker managed to hit just 5-of-16 shots, though, and field goal percentage has been the big sap to his value. Nicolas Batum had a very Batum-like line of nine points on 3-of-12 shooting with six boards, three assists and two treys, and didn’t manage any defensive stats on the night.
P.J. Hairston (18 minutes, three points) didn’t do anything with his minutes and he’ll be a hot-hand guy that doesn’t get much run otherwise. The glut of power forwards saw Cody Zeller (seven points, 12 boards, one steal) and Marvin Williams (10 points, 10 boards, three assists, 0-for-5 3PTs) both get 30 and 38 minutes, respectively. Until one emerges owners can stay away. Frank Kaminsky saw just six minutes and that’s either one strike or two strikes with owners because he’s not projected to be more than a late-round value in most realistic scenarios. That’s not good math for a stash. Owners certainly shouldn’t move the needle after one game, even if the guys played to some of their stereotypes on Opening Night.
THE BATTLE FOR THE THERMOMETER
Questions about whether or not Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade could co-exist surrounded the preseason, and we got the answer from Dragic’s perspective last night as he managed just eight points, one board, six assists and two blocks in his 31 minutes. Meanwhile, Dwyane Wade scored 20 points on 7-of-16 shooting with three rebounds, five assists and one block in 29 minutes.
This seems like it’s going to take about 2-3 weeks before they really get the balance of who handles what figured out. They have barely played as a starting five with Chris Bosh (21 points, 10 boards, one steal, one block, two threes) going down last year and Hassan Whiteside being a relatively new addition. Still, one has to think that the Heat would rather play at Dragic’s tempo and have him going, while preserving Wade for the playoffs, but old dogs don’t learn new tricks and especially when the whole team is in a contract year.
Gerald Green continued to be a one-man bench with 19 points, one rebound, one assist and five treys, which was good for mid-round value on the night. Josh McRoberts’ knee issue is nowhere near progressed to the point folks in Miami made it seem about 2-3 weeks ago, as he played just 13 minutes with negligible stats. Owners can watch this action from the wire, but if he starts to show signs of health he will fit well in the second unit and might be a sneaky low-end value.
Hassan Whiteside played 20 minutes with four points, six boards and two blocks and got the Al Jefferson treatment last night. Udonis Haslem got the nod fairly early and has a fairly good history against him, so this was a matchup-based decision but it does highlight how green Whiteside is. His ride will be among the most interesting to follow this season, at least until we figure out what he’s going to be.
RETURN OF PAUL GEORGE
The Pacers didn’t have enough in the tank to get a win in Toronto, but we did see encouraging production from Paul George, Ian Mahinmi, George Hill and C.J. Miles. George hit just 4-of-17 shots, but a 9-of-10 mark at the line pushed him to 17 points, 12 boards, eight assists and three steals. The usage is what’s telling the story and I’m just glad I wasn’t on the anti-George train that rolled throughout the preseason.
Mahinmi went for 10 and eight with three assists, two steals and two blocks in his 25 minutes, and he has genuinely improved this season. He’s a fine low-end center. George Hill scored 19 points on 6-of-10 shooting with five treys, three boards, two assists, two steals and a block. Think of him as a past version playing off the ball but that’s a whole lot better. Miles had a normal ‘good’ night with 18 points and four treys, which is what you’re going for if you’re riding that ride. Monta Ellis managed just nine points on 3-of-11 shooting with six assists and two steals, and along with getting dinged up in the preseason he has to learn the new system. It could be a bumpy ride for the first few weeks.
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