Offseason Beat: Draft Breakdown and Podcast

We are almost there. No more guessing who will be ready from injury, who will step up in Summer League, which players will bust loose in preseason, and who will be the starting point guards for every team. OK, that last one isn’t true because we still do not know for sure who will start at point guard for the Jazz and 76ers. We don’t even know what 76ers will make the team for sure either.

Last week, Steve Alexander and I were kindly invited to the Yahoo! Friends and Family league. It is a 14-team, nine-category draft in a head-to-head format with weekly rosters. That means punting isn’t the worst idea out there, but it’s still something I’ll never do.

Before we get to the recap, make sure you check out Doctor A and I break it down with the return of the Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Podcast. We’ll be podcasting a lot this year, so stay tuned. We will be on iTunes any day now. Here it is: 

Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for stats, analysis, Vines, answers to questions, and more!

Not many surprises here. Anthony Davis finished the preseason with an otherworldly 34.7 usage rate to go with his averages of 23.5 points, 9.7 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.3 blocks and 1.2 treys in 29.1 minutes. A 34.7 usage rate? What? I would take him first in an eight-cat too. Joel B from Rotowire was slightly bold with KD at three, but I have KD there, too. I’m sold. I would never take LeBron in the first round of a head-to-head league because of the days off, but he’s going to put up numbers while he’s out there. Besides that, the only surprise to me was Damian Lillard falling to 13. I have him eighth right now.

Steve was a little aggressive with Eric Bledsoe in a nine-cat, but you certainly can’t knock it and you have to like Bledsoe as a PNR handler with Tyson Chandler. There really were not many surprises here either, but one thing I have to point out is how Joel B grabbed Drummond and mixed him with KD. When KD is on, he’s the best FT% guy, but taking Drummond basically zaps that value off him. If you take KD, Harden, Westbrook or Curry, don’t take Drummond, Whiteside, Howard or DeAndre.

I was shocked Marc Gasol was there for me on this turn (I like him more than Dipo). I thought Mike Conley was a really good pick and Rudy Gay is another nice guy with how he was a top-20 player per game after the break last year. Based on what I’ve seen from the Utah offense in the preseason, Derrick Favors isn’t going to be as involved in the offense, but he’s still one of the top five bigs on the board. I was surprised to see Chris Bosh slide, but it makes sense with all the depth. Jeff Teague could be awesome this year; he had better scoring numbers sans DeMarre Carroll. I thought Brook Lopez was a nice pickup this late too. Steve is doubling-down on the Manimal.

I was shocked to see Steve sneak Danny Green this late. Unless he can’t hit shots, he’ll be a top-25 player and maybe even top 15. Besides Green, I loved Nic Batum going where he did and wanted him to slide to me badly. Reggie Jackson is a nice pick this late. He led the NBA in  pick-and-roll plays run since he joined Detroit and that offense is going to create a lot of space. Marcin Gortat is probably the best center of the preseason and he was a first-rounder after the break. Seems like a lock for top 40 with top-10 upside. The only pick I didn’t like here was Wiggins, but he is taking more 3-pointers in the preseason. Towns looks amazing. If I miss out on Gortat, I’d want KAT.

Of course I took C.J. McCollum, but you don’t have to take him this early — I’m sure most people would call this a bad pick. I like Giannis and Goran Dragic going where they did quite a bit. DeMar DeRozan‘s numbers just don’t translate to nine-cat the way they should because he’s really just a two-cat guy. Monta Ellis was solid, but this recent knee surgery news scares me a bit. DeMarre Carroll kicked off six picks I really liked. Was T. Jones a tad early? Maybe, but he is capable of being a top-20 player and just needs to be healthy. 

Behrens went homer mode with Rose, but you have to admit he looked terrific in coach Fred Hoiberg‘s offense. After that, this round was crazy. Five years ago, there would have been like eight first round players. I tend not to draft older guys in the first half of a draft, but these picks are obvioulsy fine. Rubio could be very good and the Wolves will probably be one of the most fun teams to watch. Parsons isn’t healthy, but he’s solid there and I was hoping he’d slide in this weekly format.

The Pelicans are really banged up, so I went after Ryno in hopes he can flirt with 3.0 treys before the help comes back — stay healthy, Ryno. I’m not a Mudiay guy in nine-cat because he will destroy percentages and turnovers. He also has a minor hamstring injury, which is a slight concern after being injury prone in China. Jrue Holiday looks a lot better today than it did last week with the Pelicans lifting hims minutes cap to 18 on Friday — he will still have it for a while, but it might be 20 in a few weeks. Gorgui Dieng was a rock-solid pick right here and people should not get caught up in him coming off the bench. Meyers Leonard has a big upside with percentages, points, boards and treys.

I was hoping Aaron Gordon would slide, but nope. There’s more risk now with AG having foot issues on both feet now, though. Eric Gordon could be very good to start the year. I am not an Okafor guy at all in his first season because of low FT%, non-impressive FG%, and not many blocks. J.R. Smith should be able to smash this ADP based on his performance with the Cavs last season. He did slow down in the postseason, so that creates some doubt. David Lee could be a nice pickup with the Celtics running a lot of offense through him. I’m not a Rondo guy, but that isn’t a bad spot for him.

I double-dipped on Jazz with Hood and Burks. They should take most of the minutes next to Gordon Hayward and the Jazz are also playing four-wing lineups quite a bit. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Burks outscore Gordon. Thanks to the Wizards looking like an offensive powerhouse, Otto Porter has been rising up the rankings, which is justified. He could be awesome. John Henson is interesting for sure with his league-leading block rate last season, but coach Jason Kidd isn’t playing him next to Monroe, which is bad news while Jabari Parker is out. Joe Johnson should beat this ADP early on, but he might get traded. Mo Williams could be a nice rental, but there are a lot of other high-upside players out there.

If Nurkic’s knee gets right, he could be a very nice pick. I really wanted Alex Len to slide and this is a steal. Who cares if he comes off the bench? Kyle O’Quinn and Myles Turner are similar guys as bench bigs, but I’d give the edge to Turner for youth and being better at free throws — higher risk, though. C.J. Miles is going to start, but PG-13 is really soaking up usage and the offense will run through Monta a lot, too. Jabari Parker slid big time, which is justified based on how he couldn’t hit top-100 value last year while he was humming before the injury. I took Tony Parker at 140.

Sauce! Get healthy! Zaza Pachulia should be a fairly safe here, but he’s hurt a lot, too. I really like what Avery Bradley is doing this preseason. He won’t get dimes, but the added 3s can launch him into the top 80. Brandan Wright is a nice guy as a handcuff-type player because he’d blow up without Gasol or Z-Bo. Kris Humphries had a big preseason and is taking threes.

Trill is most likely going to start for the Kings, but his minutes will be in the low 20s. Patty Mills could step up once Parker misses time and he’ll get minutes at the two, too. Most of these guys are just low-ceiling, safe picks. I took Bjelica because why not?

Bobby Portis is a great Mr. Irrelevant. FREE BOBBY PORTIS! Tony Allen is probably the best bet to be a top-125 guy for his steals. Gerald Green could be effective once Dwyane Wade goes down and he’s even playing next to Wade, too. Clint Capela has stepped up and he’ll start on Wednesday, too. Jose Calderon was a nice pick here and should be solid while he’s healthy.

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