CHICAGO — On Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, the Mets beat the Cubs in Game 3 of the NLCS (NYM 5, CHC 2) to lead the series 3-0. Here’s what you need to know about the game that put the Mets within one win of the World Series …
1. History is squarely against a Cubs comeback.
After Tuesday night’s loss, the Cubs are now down 3-0 in the his best-of-seven affair. The 2015 Cubs thus become the 35th team in postseason baseball history to go down 3-0 in a series. Of those prior 34 teams, only one — the 2004 Red Sox — were able to surmount those odds. Stated another way, just 2.9 percent of teams down 3-0 have come back to win the series in question.
And what if the Cubs had managed to prevail in Game 3? They’d have been down 2-1, and teams down 2-1 in a best-of-seven go on to win the series 29.2 percent of the time. In other words, because of their Game 3 loss they’re now 10 times less likely to move on, at least according to historical outcomes.
2. The team down 3-0 almost never wins Game 4.
As long as we’re talking about historical trends as they apply to the Cubs, there’s this: The team that’s down 3-0 has won Game 4 just 17.6 percent of the time (they’re 6-28 in such contests). Things have even more grim for the home team who’s down 3-0, as they’ve gone 2-14 in such Game 4s.
3. Cub fans who believe in harbingers and omens and whatnot have cause for hope.
The aforementioned 2004 Red Sox, the only team to come back from down 3-0? They have some similarities with the Cubs and their current straits …
- Each was staring down an impossibly long World Series drought.
- Each was tasked with coming back in the LCS against a team from New York.
- Each had a front office helmed by Theo Epstein.
- Each would play Games 4 and 5 at home in a very old and very beloved ballpark.
- Each had or would go on to vanquish the Cardinals in that same postseason.
So if you’re the superstitious manner of Cubs rooter, then consider this to be a port in the NLCS storm.
4. Taking Jacob deGrom deep more than once in a start is hard to do.
During the regular season, deGrom allowed multiple home runs in just four of his 30 starts. In Game 3, though, he’d given home runs to Kyle Schwarber (opposite field) and Jorge Soler (to center) by the fourth inning.
Of course, deGrom, let it be said, settled down nicely …
He retired 11 in a row after the Soler homer — the last 11 batters he faced Tuesday night.
5. Daniel Murphy is two home runs from tying the record for a single postseason.
Murphy on Tuesday night homered for a record-tying fifth straight postseason game, and he now has six home runs in the 2015 playoffs. That means Murphy needs just two more to tie Barry Bonds (Giants, 2002) for the all-time record for homers in a single postseason. Presently, Murphy is tied on the all-time list with Albert Pujols (Cardinals, 2004), Melvin Upton Jr. (Rays, 2008), Alex Rodriguez (Yankees, 2009), Nelson Cruz (Rangers, 2010); and he’s one behind Carlos Beltran (Astros, 2004) and Cruz (Rangers, 2011). Murphy will have at least four more games to try to reach Bonds’ record.
6. Mets pitching is dominating Cubs hitting.
During the regular season, the Cubs ranked sixth in the NL with 4.25 runs scored per game. In the second half, that figure improved to 4.70 in the second half, as, among other developments, Kyle Schwarber became a lineup regular. Well, through three games of the NLCS the Cubs have managed a total of just five runs. It could be just one of those short-run things that happens in baseball, or it could be that the Cubs’ swing-and-miss vulnerabilities (their 24.5 team strikeout percentage paced all of baseball) are a poor match for a Mets playoff rotation that brings the high velocity like no other team can. Whatever the reasons, the Cubs haven’t been able to put enough runs on the board to be competitive in this series.
7. The Mets’ bullpen has been lights-out in the NLCS.
Those five runs the Cubs have scored this series? They’ve all come off Mets starters. Thus far in the NLCS, New York relievers Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia, Jon Niese and Addison Reed have combined for 6 2/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts, four hits and one walk over that span.
The Mets are on the brink of their first pennant since 2000. (USATSI)
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