The Line: UCLA -3

Cal quarterback Jared Goff is the present. UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen is the future. Both have struggled with interceptions, but for the most part this quarterback duel should be awesome.

Goff has had two weeks to stew in the disaster at Utah, when he threw five picks in a 30-24 loss. But despite that proliferation of turnovers, he still had his moments in that game, and for the year he still ranks No. 1 on Pro Football Focus’ college QB rankings.

Plus Utah’s defense is one of the best in college football, especially at forcing turnovers, while UCLA’s defense is pillow soft. Without defensive end Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback Fabian Moreau—all of whom are out for the year with injuries—the Bruins made Stanford look like Baylor last Thursday.

Goff should lead Cal to at least 35-40 points.

The Pick: Cal (+3)

The Line: Clemson (-7)

Not to be outdone by Cal at UCLA, Clemson at Miami features the best quarterback matchup of the week and maybe the year.

Sophomores Deshaun Watson (Clemson) and Brad Kaaya (Miami) each started as freshmen last season, each showed flashes of brilliance and each improved in 2015. At this rate they figure to compete for the top QB spot on 2016 NFL draft boards.

The problem for Miami is that Watson, unlike Kaaya, has the backing of a well-rounded team. He might have the backing of the nation’s best team. That’s where the S&P+ ratings have Clemson after seven weeks, while Miami ranks No. 47. Per those rankings, the Tigers have a top-25 run offense, a top-10 pass defense, a top-five pass offense and the No. 1 run defense.

Seven points seems just a fraction too low.

The Pick: Clemson (-7)

The Line: Michigan State (-16)

Michigan State covered for the first time at Michigan—and that was the case even before the miracle fumble return to win outright.

Quarterback Connor Cook played his best game of the season, and Sparty on the whole fixed some issues. The special teams, however, looked as porous and undisciplined as ever, and the secondary depth has gone from minor to major concern.

MSU is hanging by a thread, and while this shouldn’t be the week it goes down outright, there’s no good reason to expect it wins by 16 points. Indiana quarterback Nate Sudfeld leads a potent passing attack, and the Hoosiers, even against stronger MSU defenses, have covered five of their past six games against Sparty.

The Pick: Indiana (+16)

The Line: Alabama (-15)

Alabama has won the past eight meetings, and most haven’t even been close.

Last year, however, was different. Tennessee made a furious comeback after trailing 27-0 early, cutting the lead to 27-17. It eventually lost 34-20, but the strides it made behind quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who entered mid-game as a backup but kept the starting job moving forward, propelled it to a strong end of the year.

The Vols have lost close games against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas but got a much-needed win against Georgia before last week’s bye. They need a win here desperately, while Alabama is in a trap spot between Texas A&M (No. 9 at the time of kickoff) and LSU (the current No. 5).

Staying within 15 points sounds reasonable.

The Pick: Tennessee (+15)

The Line: Oklahoma (-14.5)

Texas Tech struggled to beat Kansas last week, while Oklahoma had its way with Kansas State. That explains this 14.5-point line.

The week before that, however, Oklahoma had its face rocked by Texas, and two weeks before that, Texas Tech nearly upset TCU. That explains why I’m all over the underdog.

Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 0-2 against Oklahoma, but even last year, when his team failed to make a bowl, he never lost by more than 12 points. His offense can score on anyone, and Oklahoma has allowed at least 24 points in four of six games.

Always take the points in a shootout.

The Pick: Texas Tech (+14.5)

The Line: Virginia Tech (-3)

Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Brewer, who played last week for the first time since going down against Ohio State, is slated to make his second start of the season, per Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com.

Presumably, that explains why 3-3 Virginia Tech is laying three points against 5-1 Duke. Even at less than 100 percent, Brewer has to be an upgrade over Brenden Motley, whose inconsistency had plagued the team all season. That and Virginia Tech’s desperation—how badly does this coaching staff need a win?—shade the line a few points in its direction.

But that’s wrong. It’s an affront. Duke should be at least a three-point favorite. The S&P+ projections, which rate Duke No. 13 in the country and Virginia Tech No. 56, have the Blue Devils winning by 7.8 points with an outright win probability of 67 percent.

And you’re saying that team gets an extra field goal?

The Pick: Duke (+3)

The Line: LSU (-17)

Fun fact about Western Kentucky: Despite playing in the Sun Belt, it ranks No. 21 in the country on the S&P+ ratings, ahead of “ranked” teams such as Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Cal, Texas A&M and others.

None of those teams would receive 17 points against anyone, even LSU in Tiger Stadium. Western Kentucky’s reputation, rather than its actual performance, pushes the line toward the Tigers and creates a spot of value.

This is doubly true when you consider the situation: Western Kentucky, like Memphis in Week 7, has circled this game as its best chance to make a ripple nationally. LSU, like Ole Miss in Week 7, has circled its next game as one of the biggest on its schedule. The Rebels lost to Memphis before playing Texas A&M; the Tigers get Western Kentucky before Alabama.

Does this mean LSU will lose outright? No. Running back Leonard Fournette won’t allow that. But watch for him to have a big game, because the Tigers will need all the points they can get. Their defense isn’t what it used to be, and Hilltoppers quarterback Brandon Doughty has the No. 2 QB rating in the country and is a legit NFL prospect.

The Pick: Western Kentucky (+17)

The Line: Ole Miss (-6)

Six points feels large for a team that just had its bell rung by Memphis, even against a team that just had its bell rung by Alabama.

The Rebels get back left tackle Laremy Tunsil, a future top-10 NFL draft pick who missed the first seven weeks pending an NCAA investigation, but might lose defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, another future top-10 pick who left last week’s game with a concussion. Cornerback Trae Elston is also undergoing concussion protocol, while center Robert Conyers tore his ACL.

Aggies quarterback Kyle Allen threw three pick-sixes against the Crimson Tide, playing every bit as poorly as his stat line indicates, but he’s still a solid player. His career body of work suggests last week was the exception, not the rule. Worse comes to worst, he can just flare the ball to Christian Kirk, wind him up and let him go.

No matter who wins, this game should be close.

The Pick: Texas A&M (+6)

The Line: Florida State (-5.5)

It’s almost do-or-die for Georgia Tech, which entered the year a playoff contender but has now lost five straight games. A sixth straight loss would drop it to 2-6 with must-win games at Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech, at Miami and vs. Georgia to make a bowl.

Because of that, the Yellow Jackets will come out with everything they have. The question is whether that’s enough.

In my gut, I think it’s enough to hang around for a half or maybe three quarters, but not 60 minutes. Florida State matches up too well. To beat Georgia Tech, you must be able to run and stop the run. Florida State ranks No. 1 in the country in run offense S&P+ (GT ranks No. 100 on defense) and No. 10 in run defense S&P+ (GT ranks No. 10 on offense).

The Pick: Florida State (-5.5)

The Line: USC (-3.5)

USC’s season—or at least the season it dreamed all summer of having—is over. It won’t win the Pac-12 or make the playoff.

What it can do, however, is spoil the teams around it. And what better team to spoil than No. 3 Utah, which last year beat the Trojans, 24-21?

In its first game since the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian, USC nearly upset Notre Dame. It was tied in the fourth quarter on the road against one of the best teams in the country. Even though it lost, it showed resolve and heart and fire through adversity.

“This loss wasn’t what we wanted, but I feel like [it] brought us closer as a team,” linebacker Su’a Cravens told reporters after the game. “I feel like we’re gonna come out strong last week.”

Notre Dame ranks No. 12 on the S&P+ ratings, ahead of No. 18 Utah. The Trojans actually rank No. 11, which helps explain this curious line. The supposed No. 3 team in the country is getting a field goal plus the hook against a team without a coach that’s lost three games. Except the latter has more talent and is now back on its home field.

It’s tricky, but I’m going with my gut.

The Pick: USC (-3.5)

No. 22 Temple at East Carolina (-3)

East Carolina isn’t great, but it’s the best team Temple has played since Penn State in Week 1. The Owls have looked vulnerable recently—check how long it took them to ice Central Florida last weekend—and this game is on the road on Thursday night, which lends itself to upset potential, too. Despite that, Temple’s defense is by far the best unit on the field, and you can feel this team wanting to win one more game and advance to 7-0 before Notre Dame week.

The Pick: Temple (+3)

No. 18 Memphis (-10.5) at Tulsa

Tulsa is coming off its worst game of the season—getting stymied by East Carolina—but still has a pulse under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricanes lost by 14 points apiece against Oklahoma and Houston, proving they could hang with quality teams, and now they get Memphis in a letdown spot after last week’s massive win against Ole Miss. The Tigers should pull this out eventually, but 10.5 is decent protection for an offense that can score.

The Pick: Tulsa (+10.5)

No. 21 Houston (-21.5) at Central Florida

Even after hanging with Temple with last week, Central Florida is one of the five worst teams in the country. Its house is divided and can no longer stand, while Houston plugs along and covers big spreads. Against teams ranked No. 110 or lower in S&P+ this season (Texas State and Tulane), the Cougars are 2-0 with a plus-80 scoring margin.

The Pick: Houston (-21.5)

No. 25 Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Syracuse

Secretly Decent Pitt, as it’s been branded by The Solid Verbal, has won with balanced offense and exceptional pass defense. The run defense, though, has been suspect, and Syracuse has been feisty at home. The Panthers should win and stay ranked, but don’t expect a blowout in the Carrier Dome. Freshman quarterback Eric Dungey is finding his legs for the Orange, who hung close with LSU in their previous game against a ranked opponent.

The Pick: Syracuse (+6.5)

Iowa State at No. 2 Baylor (-37.5)

How do you pick Baylor laying 37.5 points? Then again: How do you not? This offense is shattering record books and proved last week that it’s not a total product of competition by dropping 62 points on West Virginia. Despite that, I’ll play the number and back Iowa State to score enough to cover. The S&P+ projections have Baylor winning by 25 points, and even if that number is short, a 12.5-point disparity is significant.

The Pick: Iowa State (+37.5)

No. 19 Toledo (-14.5) at UMass

Toledo has done a good job handing teams it should handle. At some point it will play another close game, but for now it’s beaten non-power conference teams by 30, 14, 31 and 43 points, respectively. The problem? Those 30-point wins all came at home, while the 14-point win came at Ball State. UMass ranks higher than Ball State on the S&P+ ratings and has enough weapons to keep this within two scores.

The Pick: UMass (+14.5)

Kansas at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-34.5)

Kansas played its guts out against Texas Tech last week, losing by just 10 in by far its best performance of the season. The way the Jayhawks played presumably pushed this line beneath five touchdowns, which in some ways creates value for Oklahoma State. I’ve been low on the Cowboys all season, but I like this situation coming off a bye against a team that just played with emotion. Prior to landing in the 50th percentile against the Red Raiders, Kansas’ average S&P+ percentile was 16.4.

The Pick: Oklahoma State (-34.5)

Week 7 Record: 8-9-0 (47.0%)

Overall Record: 59-63-2 (48.4%)

Note: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All Week 5 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders.

No. 1 Ohio State at Rutgers and Washington at No. 10 Stanford are both without early spreads. Scarlet Knights receiver Leonte Carroo (among others) and Huskies quarterback Jake Browning are questionable with injuries, so books haven’t posted a line. That is why those games have been omitted.