Goal Line Stand: Week 6 Rankings
Updated 10/17 at 11:05 AM ET. Added LeSean McCoy. Added DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal. Moved Justin Forsett down. Moved T.J. Yeldon down. Ticked Odell Beckham down. Added Vernon Davis. Moved Martellus Bennett down.
On the “trust” scale, Andy Dalton falls somewhere between John Fox and John Edwards. Before 2015, the Red Rifle was known for one thing: Disappointment. For the first four years of his career, Dalton was the king of summiting a peak only to immediately tumble down into the valley below. He was so frustrating, so inconsistent that he got a dividing line named after him.
But through five games, only Tom Brady is averaging more fantasy points. Dalton is posting a weekly 27.5, and has yet to manage fewer than 21.6, a number which would rank 13th on its own. Dalton has finished as the QB12, QB15, QB2, QB12 and QB4. He’s averaging 9.49 yards per attempt, which would blow away his previous career best by 2.16. He’s managed multiple scores in 4-of-5 starts, and rattled off three straight 300-yard performances. Dalton has put the Bengals on his back, and against good competition. He’s fresh off leading a 17-point comeback against the Seahawks, compiling 32.4 roto points in the process.
Perhaps it’s time to finally start trusting him.
For Week 6, Dalton is headed on the road against Rex Ryan’s Bills. It’s the kind of foreboding matchup that would have rendered Dalton a no-go in years past. But Dalton has yet to be the Dalton of years past, and the Bills’ play hasn’t matched their reputation. Only eight teams are allowing more fantasy points to quarterbacks. Ryan’s secondary is permitting 274 yards per game. Playing the best ball of his career — and sporting the best supporting cast — Dalton has earned the benefit of the doubt.
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Week 6 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Even in his roughest home start since 2012, Aaron Rodgers still managed 24.0 fantasy points. The Chargers aren’t a cake matchup, but it will remain “Advantage: Rodgers” against a defense making a 2,180 mile road trip. … It seems like there’s a Tom Brady “revenge” narrative every other week. He must be an angry guy. Brady has actually been pedestrian in his past three starts against the Colts, completing 61.1 percent of his passes while averaging 227 yards and 7.56 yards per attempt. He’s thrown five touchdowns against three picks. The upshot, of course, is that the Pats have obliterated Indy with the run. With New England boasting its best running back duo in some time, the only concern for Brady owners is that he might not have enough to do in Indy. … Carson Palmer tossed three touchdowns on 14 attempts in Week 5. The only thing to slow Palmer down this season has been the ineptitude of Arizona’s opponents. The Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers represent another potential blowout, but Palmer is playing too well to be ranked outside the top five.
The QB17 by average fantasy points, Matt Ryan has had some rough touchdown luck, but was just plain rough in Sunday’s win over the Redskins. He’s got a great matchup in the Saints, but it comes on the road in a short week. Expect a steady, but not spectacular, performance. … Coming off the first two absences of his career, Andrew Luck returns to a matchup with his arch-nemesis, New England. In four matchups with Bill Belichick’s defense, Luck has completed 82-of-163 passes (50.3 percent) for 1,094 yards (6.71 YPA), six touchdowns and 10 interceptions. They’re ugly numbers for a quarterback who has tossed at least two picks in each of his three starts this season. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Luck has had 10 days to prepare, and three weeks to reset since barely slipping by Tennessee. Last year’s QB1 is going to get rolling at some point, but Sunday isn’t going to be his best game of the year. … Eli Manning has an excellent Week 6 matchup in the Eagles, but his Nos. 1 and 2 receivers, Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle, are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Manning could be ranked lower by the time the Sunday morning update comes around.
Philip Rivers is the QB6, but has averaged a modest 18.5 points in his two road starts. Headed to Green Bay, he gets a Packers defense quietly allowing the third fewest fantasy points to enemy signal callers. Through five games, Dom Capers’ defense is allowing just 186 weekly passing yards. A man with so many weapons has to be fired up as a top-eight option, but Rivers should perhaps be avoided in DFS. … Drew Brees has posted back-to-back top-10 efforts, but only after throwing the most meaningless touchdown you will ever see in Week 5. Brees’ 14-yard strike to Brandin Cooks came with the Saints trailing 39-10, and no time left on the clock. These are not the Saints you remember. On a short week, Brees is not an elite play against a defense that’s allowed a mere six passing touchdowns through five games. … Russell Wilson remains on pace for career highs in attempts (480) and rushes (118), but is just the QB15 for an offense that’s been inefficient. The Panthers, who are allowing a microscopic 5.7 yards per attempt and have twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdowns against (four), are not an easy Week 6 matchup, even in Seattle.
Averaging 26 fantasy points over his past two starts, Sam Bradford gets a Giants defense allowing the most weekly passing yards (304) in the league. Bradford remains capable of going off the rails in any given matchup, but at the very least, has stabilized his streaming value. … Peyton Manning is the QB28, behind such luminaries as Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston. He has one score over his past two games. Clearly I’m giving Manning the benefit of the doubt — his YPA and completion percentage have stabilized, and he’s still throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — but time is running out. … Week 5 was the first time Marcus Mariota was held below 22.8 fantasy points. This is a conservative ranking for a dual threat facing a defense trying to remake itself on the fly. … Cam Newton’s 2015 is the tale of two monster games at home, and two quiet ones on the road. Sunday he’ll be on the road against a Seahawks defense allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and smarting over last week’s come-from-ahead loss in Cincinnati.
Blake Bortles is completing just 57.1 percent of his passes and averaging 6.87 yards per attempt, but continues to goose his fantasy value with big plays and garbage time. The Texans are not a great matchup, but Bortles should find a way to top-16 value. … Miami’s bye came at a great time for Ryan Tannehill, who needed to reset after completing just 44-of-93 attempts (47.3 percent) across Weeks 3 and 4. Joe Philbin is gone, but with so many resources devoted to the Dolphins’ passing game, Tannehill’s volume will remain. … Playing decent football even without Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler should finally have his No. 1 receiver back for Week 6. He gets a Lions defense allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and is firmly on the streaming radar. … Josh McCown is fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback over the past three weeks. I wanted to rank him higher, but it’s simply too difficult against the Broncos’ league-best defense. … Teddy Bridgewater has a dream matchup in a Chiefs secondary that’s allowed 13 passing touchdowns in five games, but it’s hard to go all in on a player averaging 194 yards. … E.J. Manuel will be a rock-bottom DFS punt play, but don’t be surprised if he’s a trainwreck against the Bengals.
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