ALCS preview: Royals, Blue Jays battle for American League supremacy

Remember when the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays faced off in a thrilling four-game series that felt like postseason baseball in the middle of the summer? How could you forget? There were beanballs, brawls and walk-off bombs. A rivalry was born, and there’s no better time to settle things in October.

This time Kansas City and Toronto could play up to seven games, with the stakes even higher: the winner moves onto the World Series.

That mid-summer series also represented a turning point in the Blue Jays’ season. They entered that series a .500 team at 51-51 and then reeled off 42 wins in their final 60 games to finish with the second best record in the American League behind the Royals, who established themselves early on as the team to beat in the AL.

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They both enter the ALCS coming off division series that went the distance, meaning neither team has an advantage setting up its starting rotation. The Blue Jays are known for their powerful bats and the Royals for their dominant bullpen and terrific defense, but these are two well-balanced teams that have absolutely earned the right to be on this stage.

SCHEDULE
Game 1: Friday in Kansas City, 7:30 p.m. ET (TV coverage on Fox Sports 1 and Sportsnet)
Game 2: Saturday in Kansas City, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1 and Sportsnet)
Game 3: Monday in Toronto, 7:00 p.m. ET (FS1 and Sportsnet)
Game 4: Tuesday in Toronto, TIME TBA (FS1 and Sportsnet)
Game 5:* Wednesday in Toronto, TIME TBA (FS1 and Sportsnet)
Game 6:* Friday, Oct. 17, in Kansas City, TIME TBA (FS1 and Sportsnet)
Game 7:* Saturday, Oct. 18 in Kansas City, TIME TBA (FS1 and Sportsnet)
* if necessary

PREVIOUSLY
The Blue Jays took three of four in the aforementioned series at Rogers Centre between July 30-Aug. 2, but it was the Royals that had the upper hand just a couple weeks earlier, winning two out of three at home right before the All-Star break.

Game 1 starters: Marco Estrada and Edinson Volquez

PITCHING
Game 1: Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55)
Game 2: David Price (18-5, 2.45) vs. Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08)
Game 3: Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44) vs. Marcus Stroman (4-0, 1.67)
Game 4: TBD vs. R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91)
Game 5: TBD
Game 6: TBD
Game 7: TBD

The starting rotations are quite evenly matched, though the stats give Toronto a slight edge. That Game 1 matchup between Estrada and Volquez is mighty interesting. The two veteran right-handers have put together nice seasons. Can one outshine the other under the bright lights? From there we get to see the two marquee trade deadline pick-ups take on dynamic up-and-comers, with David Price facing Yordano Ventura and Johnny Cueto matching up with Marcus Stroman.

Where the Royals have an advantage is in the bullpen. Led by Wade Davis, Kansas City’s relievers combined for the best ERA in baseball. The Blue Jays relief corps was much improved in the second half after adding Mark Lowe, LaTroy Hawkins and Aaron Sanchez to the late-inning mix to complement Roberto Osuna, but the loss of Brett Cecil to a calf tear he suffered in the ALDS leaves them without a reliable left-handed reliever.

THREE KEYS FOR BLUE JAYS

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher David Price throws against the Texas Rangers in the first inning of Game 1 of the American League Division Series in Toronto on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015. (Fred Thornhill/Pool Photo via AP)

THREE KEYS FOR THE BLUE JAYS
• Is the Price right?: The Blue Jays were able to overcome a David Price loss in Game 1 of the ALDS to win the series in five games. They might not be so fortunate if Price doesn’t bring the goods in his first start of this series. It’s not the first time he’s struggled in the postseason either, carrying a 5.04 ERA in 50 career playoff innings. He’ll get another shot to redeem himself Saturday.

• Defense wins championships: No team in baseball struck out less than Kansas City this season. That means they put the ball in the play, and that puts the onus on Toronto to make plays in the field. One mistake can lead to a whole bunch of runs, so they’ll have to be on their toes at all times.

• Throw ’em out: We know the Royals like to run: they were one of six major-league teams with over 100 stolen bases. We also know Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin loves showing off his arm: Martin threw out 44.4% of attempted base-stealers this season, the best caught-stealing percentage in the AL. If Kansas City speedsters Jarrod Dyson or Terrence Gore end up on the bases late in games, watch out. These plays could loom large and even decide a game.

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 14: Kansas City Royals fans pose for a picture during game five of the American League Division Series between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium on October 14, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

THREE KEYS FOR THE ROYALS
• Home-field heroes: When the Blue Jays rested their regulars for two games after clinching the AL East title during the final week of the regular season, they more or less let Kansas City finish with the AL’s best record and home-field through the playoffs. Now’s the time for the Royals to show them what they’re missing. If they can win Games 1 and 2, all they need to do is win one of three in Toronto before having the opportunity to wrap up the series back at Kauffman Stadium.

• Is Johnny Cueto back?: It sure looked like it in Wednesday’s NLDS Game 5 win against the Astros. Cueto went eight innings, giving up two runs and striking out eight. A couple more performances like that will go a long way in getting Kansas City to the World Series for a second straight year and solidify Cueto’s case for a big-time free-agent offer.

• Act like you’ve been there before: Though the Royals are a generally young team, they reached this point just last season. For many Blue Jays, including a number of their stars, this is the furthest they’ve ever advanced in the playoffs. Using that experience to their advantage could give them an edge in late-and-close situations.

Kansas City Royals pitcher Wade Davis, left, and catcher Salvador Perez celebrate the Royals' 5-1 win over the Minnesota Twins in a baseball game, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015, in Minneapolis. The Royals win ended the Twins playoff chances. Davis entered the ninth with the bases loaded and picked up the save. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS

• 7 —Earned runs allowed by Royals closer Wade Davis in 67 1/3 regular season innings, giving him a ridiculous 0.94 ERA. One of those runs? A solo homer by Jose Bautista.

• 8 —Earned runs allowed by Blue Jays ace David Price in 10 innings in the ALDS. Needless to say, he needs to be better against Kansas City.

• 36.2% —Fly-ball rate for Royals pitchers, the third-highest in the league. Against a team that mashes like Toronto, the difference in the series could be whether or not those fly balls end up over the fence. They got away with serving up 11 homers to Houston in the ALDS. They might not be so lucky against the Jays.

• 120 — Combined regular season home runs for Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Kansas City had 139 as a team. Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion combined for five in the ALDS as well.

• 30 — Years ago that the Royals and Blue Jays meet in the 1985 ALCS that’s remembered as one of the all-time classics. Kansas City rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win the series in seven games and went on to win the World Series. Will the 2015 version match the original? It has the potential to be even better.

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Israel Fehr is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter. Follow @israelfehr

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