Week 7 Expert College Football Picks – 247Sports.com 
All good things must come to an end, even unbeaten football seasons.
And this week, look for many among the unbeaten to fall for the first time this year. Florida has yet to lose under first-year head coach Jim McElwain, starting the season 6-0 going into its trip to Death Valley this week. However, LSU is not only a 9.5-point favorite but also projected to cover that spread by the least squares optimization model used here to project the outcome of every college football game.
Michigan, another team playing well under a first-year head coach in Jim Harbaugh, is also favored to take down an undefeated team at home this week. Michigan State (6-0) travels to The Big House, where Michigan is projected to cover an 8-point spread.
Here are my picks this week. Further explanation after the jump …
But it’s not just home favorites who are projected to knock off unbeaten. Northwestern is at home but a 2.5-point underdog against an Iowa team that’s 6-0 for the third time in the last 30 years. But the Wildcats are projected to upset the Hawkeyes by 6.5 points.
Still, possibly the biggest upset the model calls for this week, is for a seven-point road underdog in Arizona State to go to Salt Lake City and take down Utah (5-0). The Sun Devils have been blown out by Texas A&M and USC this year but have otherwise played well this season, highlighted by a 38-23 win at UCLA earlier this month. The model calls for them to pick up another huge road victory this Saturday.
Last week, after making a few tweaks to the model, three of 12 underdogs picked by the model to win actually won – a 25% success rate that includes calling for 17-point underdog Washington to shock USC in what ended up being Steve Sarkisian’s final game as the Trojans’ head coach. All other underdogs went 7-36 (.163). The model went 28-27 (.509) against the spread and 39-17 (.696) straight up, performing particularly well in Power 5 games as it went 19-12 (.613) and 22-11 (.710) straight up.
In another notable Pac-12 matchup, Stanford (-6.5) is projected to cover and win at home against UCLA to stay unbeaten in Pac-12 play. Notre Dame (-7) is projected to do the same at home against USC. And in South Carolina’s first game since Steve Spurrier stepped down as head coach, the Gamecocks (-3) are projected to be upset by Vanderbilt at home Saturday.
Auburn (+2) is also a slight road underdog against Kentucky this week and is projected to win to avoid falling to 0-3 in SEC play. Kansas State nearly knocked off Oklahoma State and TCU the last two weeks and is a five-point underdog at home against Oklahoma this week but the Sooners are projected to both cover and win this week after losing to Texas in the Red River Showdown last weekend.
Louisville (+7) is projected to give unbeaten Florida State a run for its money this week but the model calls for the Cardinals to ultimately fall to the Seminoles by 1.9 points. There is currently no line for the Indiana-Rutgers game but the model projects the Hoosiers to win by 6.2 points. Below are this week’s picks.
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