Astros turn to Dallas Keuchel in Game 5 of ALDS, but a little too late
With the season on the line, the Houston Astros turned to their best pitcher. Dallas Keuchel received opportunity to pitch in Game 5 of the ALDS, but his appearance caused more questions than expected.
With the Astros down 4-2 in the eighth, Astros manager A.J. Hinch turned to Keuchel in order to keep the Royals from doing any more damage. On the surface, the move made sense. Keuchel had been the club’s best pitcher all season, and given the bullpen’s struggles in Game 4, it was easy to see why Hinch would turn to his ace starter in a do-or-die game.
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Ultimately, it didn’t work out. Keuchel gave up a leadoff double to Alcides Escobar to open the frame. After a lineup, he issued an intentional walk against Lorenzo Cain. Eric Hosmer followed that up by popping out to the catcher, and it started to look like Keuchel would escape after some early trouble.
That wasn’t the case. Kendrys Morales tagged Keuchel for a three-run homer during the next at-bat. Morales drove an 80 mph slider out to left center, driving the final nail into the Astros coffin.
All of it happened with the club’s best pitcher on the mound.
Typically, you want your team’s best pitcher out there during the biggest moment in the game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that may have taken place in the fifth inning.
Therein lies the question. The fifth inning represented the biggest moment in the game for both teams. With the Astros up by a run, Collin McHugh put runners on second and third with no outs. Hinch decided to turn to the bullpen at that point, calling for Mike Fiers instead.
With the game on the line, Fiers gave up a two-run double to Alex Rios, allowing the Royals to take the lead. He would later give up another run on a sac fly, pushing the lead further out of reach.
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So, as Jeff Passan pointed out, if Hinch knew Keuchel was available, why didn’t he turn to his best pitcher at that point in the game?
A quick look at the numbers makes it tough to justify the choice. It’s not just Keuchel’s superior ERA (2.48 vs 3.69) or FIP (2.91 vs 4.01) that makes him the best choice in that situation. Keuchel posted a better walk rate and WHIP than Fiers. And though he’s not really considered a strikeout pitcher, Keuchel’s 23.7 percent strikeout rate was exactly the same figure put up by Fiers.
The only reason for putting Fiers on the mound instead of Keuchel in that situation may have to do with the type of contact they induce. Keuchel is an extreme ground ball pitcher. In fact, his 61.7 percent ground ball rate was good for second in the majors this season, just behind Brett Anderson. With men on second and third, Keuchel couldn’t induce an inning-ending double play. A grounder may have resulted in a run scoring even if Keuchel managed an out.
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Fiers, on the other hand, is an extreme fly ball pitcher. His 37.6 percent ground ball rate ranked as the eighth-lowest among qualified pitchers. He’s basically the anti-Keuchel. While a fly ball would have hurt the Astros in this situation, it’s possible Hinch was playing for a popup. If that was the case, going to Fiers might make sense.
Keuchel’s best pitch for inducing popups this season was his cutter. That pitch induced a 1.69 percent popup rate this season, according to BrooksBaseball.net. Fiers, by comparison, has three pitches with a higher popup rate this season: His fastball, his cutter and his slider. The slider has been Fiers’ best weapon for pop outs, resulting in a 3.06 percent rate. If Fiers was able to induce some weak popups, maybe the Astros could get through the inning without giving up a run. It’s a long shot, but that scenario was probably more likely with Fiers on the mound.
We have no idea whether that was Hinch’s line of thinking here, and it’s not like it matters. Keuchel didn’t head out to the bullpen until the inning, and the meltdown, was complete. While he was a candidate to pitch, and eventually did get in the game, he wasn’t a candidate to pitch in that moment.
Using Keuchel at that time may not have mattered anyway. It was incredibly likely the Royals would have scored at least one run in that scenario no matter who was on the mound. Whoever Hinch turned to was coming in to a vicious situation.
It also didn’t help that Keuchel ran into trouble later in the game. Things would not have played out the same way had he been used in the fifth, but it’s not as if Keuchel completely dominated during his only inning of work. That takes some of the second-guessing out of the equation.
In the end, Keuchel’s poor appearance should not take away from his incredible season. For 232 regular season innings, and 13 postseason frames, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. One bad inning shouldn’t take away from that, particularly in a game that already seemed out of reach.
Hinch, much like the Astros, is still inexperienced. He’ll grow and learn from his mistakes, much like his promising young players. Given the way the team has built, this seems like it could be the start of a strong run for Houston.
Next time the season is on the line, Hinch will be better prepared. And Keuchel will be eager to erase the tiny blip in an otherwise phenomenal year.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
