NFL Picks Week 6: Packers, Seahawks win; Saints fall to Falcons – NOLA.com
In the glass half-full, half-empty department, it was one of those weeks where we were fantastic straight up, and much less than fantastic against the spread. In fact, I don’t remember such a disparagement between records.
Well, let’s don’t waste any more time before getting right to the picks this week. It’s a tough one for those in knockout pools this week, especially if you have already taken Green Bay and Seattle. But we’ll find a way to forge on and make it to Week 7! Good luck!
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Here we go with Week 6 (home team in bold):
16 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: No pick do to byes. 16-point record: 2-1.
15 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: No pick due to byes. 15-point record: 2-2.
14 points: GREEN BAY over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Let’s make it real simple for you: Until something really strange happens, take Green Bay at home with no questions asked. Against the spread: Packers minus-9.5.
Last week: Atlanta over Washington (W). 14-point record: 5-0. ATS, Falcons -8.5 (L)
13 points: SEATTLE over CAROLINA, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Making it even simpler: See the rule above and change Green Bay to Seattle. Against the spread: Seahawks minus-5.5.
Last week: Kansas City over Chicago (L). 13-point record: 4-1. ATS, Chiefs -9.5 (L)
12 points: MINNESOTA over KANSAS CITY, Sunday at noon
This up-and-coming Vikings team is on the fringe of becoming a solid group with a little bit of everything. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are in deep trouble without Jamaal Charles, and the only thing they’re on the fringe of is falling apart. Against the spread: Vikings minus-4.5.
Last week: New England over Dallas (W). 12-point record: 4-1. ATS, Cowboys +7.5 (L)
11 points: NEW ENGLAND over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
Never has a team responded like the Patriots have in their efforts to stick it to the league. If you get in their way they’ll run over you and your overinflated pieces of pigskin. And the Colts – the team that started this mess – are in their way this week. Doesn’t really matter whether Andrew Luck plays or not. Against the spread: Patriots minus-7.5.
Last week: NY Giants over San Francisco (W). 11-point record: 4-1. ATS, 49ers +7.5 (W)
10 points: DETROIT over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
One of these weeks, the Lions just HAVE to break the streak, right? Well, I guess there was that one time not all that long ago when they went 0-16. But if there’s any team worse than them (OK, there’s probably a few), it’s the Chicago Bears. Don’t be fooled by the win at Kansas City, which couldn’t score after Jamaal Charles left with his ACL injury. Against the spread: Lions minus-2.5.
Last week: Philadelphia over New Orleans (W). 10-point record: 3-2. ATS, Saints +4.5 (L)
9 points: ATLANTA over NEW ORLEANS, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
Have to say that as late as about an hour before I typed this, I thought this might be the easiest game to pick of the lot. I mean which guy in black and gold is going to cover Julio Jones or stop Devonta Freeman? And while I know this group of Falcons isn’t the same team that usually comes to the Superdome, I just can’t help but think the Saints will have their best prepared for their hated rivals. I mean if they have ANY pride whatsoever, they’ll be up for this one, right? Still, logic says to take Atlanta straight-up. However, something about this line really stinks, despite the usual golden rule that I’m not messing with one way or the other except to tell you what I’d do if I had a gun to my head. Against the spread: Saints plus-3.5.
Last week: Jacksonville over Tampa Bay (L). 9-point record: 2-3. ATS, Jaguars +2.5 (L)
8 points: PHILADELPHIA over NY GIANTS, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
I’m trying not to put too much stock into the Eagles steamrolling of the Saints last week, but rather I still think they’re a good football team. Oh, that, and Philly was won 11 out of the last 14 against their NFC East rivals. Against the spread: Eagles minus-3.5.
Last week: Buffalo over Tennessee (W). 8-point record: 1-4. (Broke that 8-point schneid.) ATS, Bills -2.5 (L)
7 points: NY JETS over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
If there is any team I have discredited beyond the point of what they’ve deserved it’s the Jets. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still not convinced, but I also have little faith in the Redskins despite their impressive performances the past two weeks. Close game goes to the home team on a Nick Folk field goal late or in overtime. Against the spread: Redskins plus-5.5.
Last week: Green Bay over St. Louis (W). 7-point record: 5-0. ATS, Rams +9.5 (L)
6 points: CINCINNATI over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
Well, one team I jumped on last week was Cincinnati. For about three quarters it appeared as if they would make me look silly. But Andy Dalton showed moxie, passing for 331 yards and rushing for a score. Buffalo without two key offensive players looks like they’re having trouble finding the end zone with a road map. Bengals and the under. Against the spread: Bengals minus-2.5.
Last week: Arizona over Detroit (W). 6-point record: 4-1. ATS, Cardinals -2.5 (W)
5 points: DENVER over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
Again, another game the Broncos should have an easy time, and I am just not convinced. I certainly wouldn’t touch this in a knockout pool, but I’m not picking Josh McCown against Peyton Manning. Not straight up, anyway. Against the spread: Browns plus-4.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Houston (W). 5-point record: 3-2. ATS, Colts even (W)
4 points: ARIZONA over PITTSBURGH, Sunday at noon
Except for one game this season, the Cardinals have been ridiculously good, and they really love feasting on bad to mediocre teams. Without Big Ben, I certainly would put Pittsburgh in that category. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-3.5.
Last week: Denver over Oakland (W). 4-point record: 3-2. ATS, Raiders +6.5 (L)
3 points: JACKSONVILLE over HOUSTON, Sunday at noon
Something exciting about this young Jaguars team. Well, it’s exciting because they can score points but can’t stop folks. Meanwhile, I’m not quite sure what the Texans are, at least not until I am convinced Arian Foster is healthy. Against the spread: Jaguars, even.
Last week: Baltimore over Cleveland (L). 3-point record: 0-5. (Ouch.) ATS, Ravens -6.5 (L)
2 points: TENNESSEE over MIAMI, Sunday at noon
The Titans – with their rookie quarterback – seem to be improving, while the Dolphins are a team in complete chaos. While teams often play well in their first game for a new coach, I still like the home team. Let’s hedge our bets with the Dolphins ATS. Against the spread: Dolphins plus-3.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over San Diego (W). 2-point record: 3-2. ATS, Steelers +3.5 (W)
1 point: SAN FRANCISCO over BALTIMORE, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Wow, Colin Kaepernick is some kind of bad. Really makes you wonder how they made the Super Bowl with that dude back there. In fact, it’s hard to believe these two teams faced off in the championship just three-plus seasons ago. Seems like 20. All that said, if Baltimore can’t beat Cleveland at home, I’m not picking them on the West Coast, where they already lost at Oakland. Against the spread: 49ers plus-2.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over Seattle (W). 1-point record: 2-3. ATS, Bengals -1.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from vegasinsider.com on Monday or Tuesday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 11-3. Season: 47-30 (.610).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 5-9. Season: 35-42 (.455).
POINT TOTALS
Week 5: 80/105 possible points. Weekly rank: T24 out of 124. Overall: 425/633. Overall rank: T26 of 210.
Week 5 READERS leader: Placentia Bay, 90/105.
Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 476/633.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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