Strike Zone: Projection Review: Hitters
Here’s the first of two columns looking at back at my hitting projections and how things ended up. I’ll be doing the top 10 for each position and other notables, starting with the catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen today.
Catchers
1. Buster Posey – Giants
Projection: .301/.366/.480, 19 HR, 74 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB in 492 AB
2015 stats: .318/.379/.470, 19 HR, 74 R, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 557 AB
2. Jonathan Lucroy – Brewers
Projection: .286/.350/.445, 16 HR, 76 R, 70 RBI, 4 SB in 528 AB
2015 stats: .264/.326/.391, 7 HR, 51 R, 43 RBI, 1 SB in 371 AB
3. Evan Gattis – Astros
Projection: .240/.299/.463, 28 HR, 70 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 499 AB
2015 stats: .246/.285/.463, 27 HR, 66 R, 88 RBI, 0 SB in 566 AB
4. Devin Mesoraco – Reds
Projection: .261/.339/.484, 23 HR, 60 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 417 AB
2015 stats: .178/.275/.244, 0 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 SB in 45 AB
5. Brian McCann – Yankees
Projection: .245/.313/.448, 26 HR, 62 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 462 AB
2015 stats: .232/.320/.437, 26 HR, 68 R, 94 RBI, 0 SB in 465 AB
You’ll notice a few examples here of players beating their run and RBI totals in otherwise fine projections. Run scoring was up 4 1/2 percent compared to 2014, which I wasn’t expecting after such a steady decline in recent seasons.
6. Salvador Perez – Royals
Projection: .282/.313/.434, 16 HR, 58 R, 69 RBI, 0 SB in 500 AB
2015 stats: .260/.280/.426, 21 HR, 52 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 531 AB
7. Matt Wieters – Orioles
Projection: .262/.319/.439, 19 HR, 57 R, 73 RBI, 1 SB in 451 AB
2015 stats: .267/.319/.422, 8 HR, 24 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB in 258 AB
It’ll be fascinating to see what happens with Wieters in free agency this winter. Two years ago, he was in line for a $150 million-$200 million contract even with his mediocre offense. However, between the Tommy John surgery and the modest hit his defensive rep has taken with Caleb Joseph playing so well in Baltimore, there’s now the chance we could see him take a one-year contract to rebuild his value. Still, I don’t really think it’ll come to that; there’s so little front-line catching out there that someone will make a big offer.
8. Yan Gomes – Indians
Projection: .264/.310/.442, 17 HR, 56 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB in 455 AB
2015 stats: .231/.267/.391, 12 HR, 38 R, 45 RBI, 0 SB in 363 AB
9. Russell Martin – Blue Jays
Projection: .233/.321/.397, 17 HR, 67 R, 58 RBI, 5 SB in 438 AB
2015 stats: .240/.329/.458, 23 HR, 76 R, 77 RBI, 4 SB in 441 AB
10. Wilson Ramos – Nationals
Projection: .272/.317/.438, 16 HR, 47 R, 60 RBI, 0 SB in 416 AB
2015 stats: .229/.258/.358, 15 HR, 41 R, 68 RBI, 0 SB in 475 AB
I thought Ramos would be quite a bit better than this if he ever put in a full season. He had fewer total bases in 475 at-bats this year than he did in 389 at-bats (his previous career high) in 2011.
Others
27 1B. Stephen Vogt – Athletics
Projection: .263/.318/.406, 12 HR, 53 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 429 AB
2015 stats: .261/.341/.443, 18 HR, 58 R, 71 RBI, 0 SB in 445 AB
Vogt was my No. 11 catcher in the preseason, though since he didn’t qualify, he was listed with the first basemen. I would have liked him even better had the A’s planned to use him in left field or at first base again. He had a 1.022 OPS through the end of May before the rigors of catching regularly took their toll.
11. Yadier Molina – Cardinals
Projection: .276/.329/.382, 9 HR, 49 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB in 468 AB
2015 stats: .270/.310/.350, 4 HR, 34 R, 61 RBI, 3 SB in 488 AB
12. Travis d’Arnaud – Mets
Projection: .267/.330/.435, 14 HR, 46 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 386 AB
2015 stats: .268/.340/.485, 12 HR, 31 R, 41 RBI, 0 SB in 239 AB
It’s going to be impossible to leave d’Arnaud out of the top 10 next year, but he’ll have the lowest at-bat projection of the group. He just seems like such a weak bet to stay healthy.
13. Yasmani Grandal – Dodgers
Projection: .245/.353/.425, 15 HR, 47 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 386 AB
2015 stats: .234/.353/.403, 16 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 355 AB
Grandal will be in the top 10 for sure, even though he collapsed due to shoulder issues during the final two months of this year. Actually, collapse hardly does it justice; he hit .065 in 92 at-bats after Aug. 7 (he was hitting .295/.400/.513 with 15 homers in 261 at-bats up until then).
14. Mike Zunino – Mariners
Projection: .225/.293/.416, 19 HR, 50 R, 57 RBI, 1 SB in 413 AB
2015 stats: .174/.230/.300, 11 HR, 28 R, 28 RBI, 0 SB in 350 AB
19. Derek Norris – Padres
Projection: .234/.337/.375, 11 HR, 43 R, 44 RBI, 4 SB in 389 AB
2015 stats: .250/.305/.404, 14 HR, 65 R, 62 RBI, 4 SB in 515 AB
26. Francisco Cervelli – Pirates
Projection: .265/.339/.360, 6 HR, 38 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 389 AB
2015 stats: .295/.370/.401, 7 HR, 56 R, 43 RBI, 1 SB in 451 AB
31. Blake Swihart – Red Sox
Projection: .243/.283/.376, 6 HR, 28 R, 29 RBI, 2 SB in 255 AB
2015 stats: .274/.319/.392, 5 HR, 47 R, 31 RBI, 4 SB in 288 AB
Swihart hit .303/.353/.452 in 155 at-bats after returning from a sprained foot in July. It looks like he’ll have to be Boston’s starting catcher, even if Christian Vazquez is ready to go on Opening Day following Tommy John surgery.
36. Dioner Navarro – Blue Jays
Projection: .254/.306/.378, 5 HR, 21 R, 22 RBI, 1 SB in 185 AB
2015 stats: .246/.307/.374, 5 HR, 17 R, 20 RBI, 0 SB in 171 AB
38. Ryan Hanigan – Red Sox
Projection: .243/.337/.327, 3 HR, 24 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 226 AB
2015 stats: .247/.337/.328, 2 HR, 28 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 174 AB
I had to throw in my two best backup catcher projections.
41. A.J. Pierzynski – Braves
Projection: .258/.298/.347, 4 HR, 17 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 213 AB
2015 stats: .300/.339/.430, 9 HR, 38 R, 49 RBI, 0 SB in 407 AB
165 OF. Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
Projection: .238/.319/.385, 4 HR, 15 R, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 122 AB
2015 stats: .246/.355/.487, 16 HR, 52 R, 43 RBI, 3 SB in 232 AB
The great news was that Schwarber eked out 20-game catcher eligibility down the stretch. If he’s penciled in to start in left field, he’ll be my No. 2 catcher behind Posey in the preseason projections.
First basemen
1. Miguel Cabrera – Tigers
Projection: .311/.377/.539, 32 HR, 98 R, 114 RBI, 1 SB in 570 AB
2015 stats: .338/.440/.534, 18 HR, 64 R, 76 RBI, 1 SB in 429 AB
2. Jose Abreu – White Sox
Projection: .296/.368/.523, 33 HR, 96 R, 118 RBI, 2 SB in 598 AB
2015 stats: .290/.347/.502, 30 HR, 88 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 613 AB
Abreu came close to meeting expectations. Too bad Adam LaRoche behind him and the White Sox’s No. 2 hitters ahead of him were disasters.
3. Edwin Encarnacion – Blue Jays
Projection: .283/.366/.544, 37 HR, 94 R, 118 RBI, 4 SB in 555 AB
2015 stats: .277/.372/.557, 39 HR, 94 R, 111 RBI, 3 SB in 528 AB
4. Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks
Projection: .286/.393/.518, 30 HR, 98 R, 96 RBI, 11 SB in 569 AB
2015 stats: .321/.435/.570, 33 HR, 103 R, 110 RBI, 21 SB in 567 AB
I underestimated the Diamondbacks’ lineup on the whole, but I was also a little down on Goldschmidt after the jump in his strikeout rate in 2014. He brought it back down some this year and hit .382 on balls in play (up from .343 in 2013 and .368 in 2014).
5. Prince Fielder – Rangers
Projection: .274/.377/.497, 32 HR, 85 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 563 AB
2015 stats: .305/.378/.463, 23 HR, 78 R, 98 RBI, 0 SB in 613 AB
It wasn’t exactly the Fielder of old, but no one is complaining. It’s still well worth noting that Fielder posted the lowest slugging percentage of his career to go along with his second highest average. Trading power for singles seemed like a conscious decision on his part following his neck surgery.
6. Albert Pujols – Angels
Projection: .284/.349/.469, 25 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 3 SB in 589 AB
2015 stats: .244/.307/.480, 40 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, 5 SB in 602 AB
Pujols’ worst average as a Cardinal was .312. His worst OBP was .394. Obviously, he’s not that player any longer. He came through with 40 homers this year and was a fine fantasy first baseman because of it, but I’m not quite sure what to think about him for 2016. The weird thing about the collapse in his batting average is that his strikeout rate remains terrific (72 K’s in 661 plate appearances this year).
7. Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
Projection: .272/.379/.479, 28 HR, 95 R, 93 RBI, 4 SB in 580 AB
2015 stats: .278/.387/.512, 31 HR, 94 R, 101 RBI, 17 SB in 586 AB
I certainly didn’t see the 17 steals coming. Rizzo was 6-for-11 and 5-for-9 in his previous two full seasons. If anything, it seemed like he’d run less, given his current status as a star and the previous poor success rate.
8. Adrian Gonzalez – Dodgers
Projection: .282/.338/.458, 24 HR, 86 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 609 AB
2015 stats: .275/.350/.480, 28 HR, 76 R, 90 RBI, 0 SB in 571 AB
This one is kind of disappointing, if only because Gonzalez had like 40 RBI a week into the season.
9. Freddie Freeman – Braves
Projection: .277/.376/.472, 24 HR, 81 R, 84 RBI, 3 SB in 563 AB
2015 stats: .276/.370/.471, 18 HR, 62 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 416 AB
Freeman was at the very top of my avoid list this year. He might not be such a poor pick next year, even though the Braves offense still figures to be pretty bad.
10. Victor Martinez – Tigers
Projection: .303/.367/.457, 18 HR, 71 R, 89 RBI, 1 SB in 554 AB
2015 stats: .245/.301/.366, 11 HR, 39 R, 64 RBI, 0 SB in 440 AB
Others
11. Joey Votto – Reds
Projection: .291/.430/.470, 20 HR, 85 R, 77 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB
2015 stats: .314/.459/.541, 29 HR, 95 R, 80 RBI, 11 SB in 545 AB
29 homers. Hit .329 and slugged .595 with men on. 80 RBI. At least it made my projection look less bad.
12. Eric Hosmer – Royals
Projection: .281/.335/.431, 17 HR, 76 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 601 AB
2015 stats: .297/.363/.459, 18 HR, 98 R, 93 RBI, 7 SB in 599 AB
1 DH. David Ortiz – Red Sox
Projection: .273/.361/.481, 25 HR, 75 R, 93 RBI, 0 SB in 501 AB
2015 stats: .273/.360/.553, 37 HR, 73 R, 108 RBI, 0 SB in 528 AB
2 DH. Chris Carter – Astros
Projection: .232/.321/.473, 33 HR, 76 R, 100 RBI, 3 SB in 535 AB
2015 stats: .199/.307/.427, 24 HR, 50 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB in 391 AB
14. Lucas Duda – Mets
Projection: .245/.338/.464, 29 HR, 76 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 511 AB
2015 stats: .244/.352/.486, 27 HR, 67 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 471 AB
16. Joe Mauer – Twins
Projection: .306/.393/.434, 10 HR, 75 R, 74 RBI, 4 SB in 542 AB
2015 stats: .265/.338/.380, 10 HR, 69 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 592 AB
Mauer’s power came back a bit after his poor first year at first base. His strikeout rate went down slightly. Still, he wasn’t any good, not while hitting .265. It doesn’t seem like he was unlucky, either. I won’t be projecting him to hit .300 again.
17. Adam LaRoche – White Sox
Projection: .247/.334/.460, 28 HR, 73 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 506 AB
2015 stats: .207/.293/.340, 12 HR, 41 R, 44 RBI, 0 SB in 429 AB
20. Adam Lind – Blue Jays
Projection: .273/.338/.462, 21 HR, 64 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 519 AB
2015 stats: .277/.360/.460, 20 HR, 72 R, 87 RBI, 0 SB in 502 AB
24. Kendrys Morales – Royals
Projection: .258/.309/.424, 19 HR, 61 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 519 AB
2015 stats: .290/.362/.485, 22 HR, 81 R, 106 RBI, 0 SB in 569 AB
I didn’t buy that Morales’s 2014 struggles were all about his missing spring training and getting a late start. But he didn’t just bounce back in 2015, he posted the second-best season of his career, six years after the best. His .847 OPS was 60 points higher than his career mark or his marks from full seasons in 2012 and 2013.
25. Ryan Howard – Phillies
Projection: .234/.315/.409, 22 HR, 60 R, 81 RBI, 0 SB in 492 AB
2015 stats: .229/.277/.443, 23 HR, 53 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB in 467 AB
28. Mark Teixeira – Yankees
Projection: .224/.322/.412, 20 HR, 58 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 415 AB
2015 stats: .255/.357/.548, 31 HR, 57 R, 79 RBI, 2 SB in 392 AB
29. Steve Pearce – Orioles
Projection: .245/.325/.407, 15 HR, 56 R, 52 RBI, 3 SB in 408 AB
2015 stats: .218/.289/.422, 15 HR, 42 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 294 AB
We got an email in March from someone who wanted a refund on the Rotoworld Draft Guide all because Pearce wasn’t in the top 300.
34. C.J. Cron – Angels
Projection: .253/.294/.429, 13 HR, 43 R, 51 RBI, 2 SB in 336 AB
2015 stats: .262/.300/.439, 16 HR, 37 R, 51 RBI, 3 SB in 378 AB
35. Mitch Moreland – Rangers
Projection: .239/.299/.393, 12 HR, 40 R, 46 RBI, 0 SB in 331 AB
2015 stats: .278/.330/.482, 23 HR, 51 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 471 AB
I thought the Rangers would be better off playing Kyle Blanks. Whoops.
48. Justin Bour – Marlins
Projection: .244/.310/.374, 3 HR, 13 R, 15 RBI, 1 SB in 145 AB
2015 stats: .262/.321/.479, 23 HR, 42 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 409 AB
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
