NFL draft: Quarterbacks tough to project in 2016 Mock Draft 1.0

A quarter of the NFL season has flown past us, and we’re starting to get an idea of which teams still legitimately have a shot of making a playoff run and which ones are starting to think about next season.

This is our first attempt to diagnose and project the 2016 NFL draft picture, and it’s admittedly a serious reach. There are hundreds of factors that will change over the next six months before the draft descends in Chicago next spring.

[Play Yahoo Daily Fantasy and get a 100% deposit bonus with your first deposit]

But the picture slowly is revealing itself, and after a handful of conversations with league sources and talent evaluators, we have a bit better idea of how the talent pool in college football is starting to shape up. With that in mind, enjoy our first mock draft of the season — but first, some notes: 

• We used the inverse of Shutdown Corner’s Week 5 power rankings to determine the order. It’s far from a perfect system (we have, for instance, no AFC South or NFC East team picking below the 20th spot, which won’t happen; at least one from each division will make the postseason and, thus, pick somewhere between 21 and 31, with the New England Patriots losing a first-round pick this season because of Roger Goodell saying so).

• We intentionally excluded a few underclassmen of note, including: Penn State QB Christian Hackenburg, LSU CB Tre’Davious White, Clemson WR Mike Williams, Virginia Tech CB Kendall Fuller, Auburn DE Carl Lawson and West Virginia S Karl Joseph. Various reasons — injury, poor play, a possible desire to return to school next year — had us skipping over these talented players who, if they declare, could firmly find themselves in the first-round picture.

• Have some fun with this! We understand that undertaking a mock in early October is a serious stretch. But we’re going off the information we have now, making some projections and — yes — things most certainly will change from now until April. But there’s no reason to get angry over a mock draft. What did it ever do to you?

Without further ado …

1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
Stanley had a bit of a rough game against Clemson’s Shaq Lawson after having his leg rolled up on the week prior but has the look of a franchise left tackle who can anchor, steer and drive. The Jaguars went defense high a year ago with Dante Fowler Jr. and need to continue building a fortress around Blake Bortles, who has shown his talent and improvement this season.

2. Chicago Bears — California QB Jared Goff
I’ll be fascinated to see how Goff fares against a strong Utah Utes defense on Saturday and whether his stock cools a bit if he struggles some. Goff right now has a ton of upside and looks to be the best of a so-so group of possibly eligible quarterbacks, but he’s no finished product. The Bears might be tethered to Jay Cutler for another year anyway, but best to prep for the future as soon as possible. And if we’re being totally honest here, we don’t think Goff will eventually end up a Bear, for what it’s worth. This is not the second-worst team in the NFL, putting them more in the Connor Cook range (whatever that is) if they do look quarterback.

3. San Francisco 49ers — Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil
Will we see him this season? Tunsil has been held out of action amid an NCAA investigation into his eligibility, with no clear resolution in sight, and he’s missing out on valuable time to help his competitive team win games and boost his stock with quality tape for scouts to dissect. But even if Tunsil is forced to miss more time, he’s viewed as a top-tier talent at a position at the NFL badly needs more talent.

4. New Orleans Saints — Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves
There’s a risk in taking a 5-11 corner this high in the draft, history tells us, but he might be the best pure cover man to come out in a few years. His confidence, technique and ball-hawking all have increased dramatically the past two seasons, and VH3 appears to be a true difference maker at a need position for the Saints.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
A candidate to go even higher, Bosa has been off to a strangely slow start from a sack-production perspective, similar to where Jadeveon Clowney was in a three-sack final season at South Carolina. Obviously, it didn’t hurt Clowney much, as he went first overall. So could Bosa. But right now, we see him slipping a bit to this spot, where he’d be a great fit in Lovie Smith’s defense — if Smith returns, that is.

6. Houston Texans — Michigan State QB Connor Cook
Bill O’Brien has the worst quarterback situation in the NFL right now, and that’s saying something. Yes, worse than the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Browns, so think about that. Neither Ryan Mallett nor Brian Hoyer nor Tom Savage represent the future at all, and Cook — despite his accuracy concerns and some questions if he’s a true leader of men (why is he not a team captain for the Spartans?) — has enough tools for the demanding O’Brien to work with. ( Also, see the note above re: Hackenburg.)

7. Cleveland Browns — Ohio State QB Cardale Jones
Too easy, right? Cleveland kid, Buckeyes hero … Browns savior? Obviously, there are a lot of extenuating factors to where we admit this is a highly speculative pick right now. Jones has struggled somewhat despite a talented surrounding cast, and Johnny Manziel hasn’t been fully unleashed yet. Maybe those things happen this season (soon), or maybe they don’t. Maybe Jones gets back on track, or perhaps he’s benched (again). Whither Manziel? Too many factors to weigh right now, but it’s Cleveland and it’s Cardale, so for now it works.

8. Detroit Lions — Ole Miss DT Robert Nkemdiche
The Lions have been softened inside, and so even with all the offensive line concerns it might be tough in this spot to pass on Nkemdiche, who has multiple-position flexibility (playing end, tackle and, heck, running back, for that matter) and has been compared to Leonard Williams. The Lions are still a little lean inside on defense — and Haloti Ngata is a free-agent-to-be — and could benefit from Nkemdiche. Would an offensive lineman help more immediately? Sure.

9. Miami Dolphins — Ohio State OT Taylor Decker
We’re not even close to 100 percent sure that Decker is the third-best tackle right now, or worth a top-10 selection for that matter, but the Dolphins must protect Ryan Tannehill and cultivate a better run-blocking environment. We love the way Decker locks, loads and drives in the run game for such a tall (6-foot-7) player. He has played both left and right tackle and perhaps could allow for moving Ja’Wuan James inside to guard, assuming the long-term health for Branden Albert is good. This is not a perfect fit, Decker to Miami, but the lack of elite guards in this class has us wedging this square peg into a round hole.

10. Washington Redskins — Florida State CB-S Jalen Ramsey
A truly special specimen who could end up going higher come April, Ramsey has all the physical gifts you want in a corner, a safety and a special-teams contributor. The ball seems to find Ramsey, who can blitz, cover and affect the run game, too. The Redskins could have a pair of long corners to defend the NFC East’s best receivers and add a playmaking element to a defense that could be solid in time.

11. Tennessee Titans — Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
Jurrell Casey could use a bookend up front, and Buckner is a perfect left end fit opposite him in the Titans’ 3-4 scheme. The Titans could go Duck hunting with their first selection for a second straight season and land an instant-impact performer who is more talented and destructive than Arik Armstead, who was the 17th pick in the draft this past April.

12. Oakland Raiders — Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
Prediction: The pre-draft narrative will be that Smith, one of the best pure football players in college right now, won’t be drafted as high as he should. It makes some sense that Smith, an off-the-ball linebacker, won’t go in, say, the top five picks. But he could have the same effect on a defense as Luke Kuechly had when he joined the Carolina Panthers in a similar draft range (ninth pick). Smith, Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith could form the nucleus of a defense on the rise, even if secondary help is badly needed.

13. Philadelphia Eagles — UCLA DL Kenny Clark
The Eagles could use (well, a lot of things, but …) another impact front-seven player to go with interior run stoppers Beau Allen and Bennie Logan and the underrated Fletcher Cox. Clark has raised his stock by playing terrific ball despite losing running mate Eddie Vanderdoes, along with three other Bruins defensive starters, and has played multiple techniques in his college career.

14. Baltimore Ravens — Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
GM Ozzie Newsome hasn’t used a first- or second-round pick on a running back since Ray Rice in 2008, but Newsome is keen enough to realize that Elliott would be a perfect addition to an offense that could use some juice. Justin Forsett could be a great complementary back and is best when used as a receiver and a change-up runner. He, Elliott and Buck Allen would give John Harbaugh a very strong RB trio and help take pressure off Joe Flacco to have to be precise on every throw.

15. St. Louis Rams — USC C Max Tuerk
Jeff Fisher will know all about Tuerk, who has had a decorated career with the Trojans and yet isn’t your classically built pivot. He’s high-cut, looks more like a tackle (and has started half a dozen games at the position, as well as at guard) and needs to show he can handle lower-built interior players — those such as his would-be teammate Aaron Donald. Is Tuerk a slam-dunk first-rounder? By no means. But Cameron Erving went 19th overall after a strong finish to his final season, and Tuerk’s smarts and versatility could see him rise through the draft process, especially at a traditionally thin position.

16. San Diego Chargers — LSU OG Vadal Alexander
A potent, surprisingly mobile guard who has played tackle before, Alexander would fit the mold of zone-blocking lineman the team seeks out for its run/rhythm passing game. The Chargers have suffered injuries up front, exposing depth issues, and Alexander has potential similar to that of La’el Collins, who was projected to go in Round 1 before unfounded allegations dropped him in a draft-weekend freefall.

17. Indianapolis Colts — Alabama NT A’Shawn Robinson

Does GM Ryan Grigson keep his job? If so, he’ll have to realize at some point that his team needs reinforcements on both sides of the ball in the trenches. An offensive lineman would work well here. But so would a nose tackle built like a Zamboni, and that’s Robinson, who is more than just a run stopper. He’s a country-strong scheme-wrecker, and though Robinson might not be much of a playmaker in terms of sacks, tackles for loss and fumbles forced, he’s exactly the kind of blue-collar force the Colts seem to lack.

18. Kansas City Chiefs — Michigan State OT Jack Conklin

His left knee injury scared the daylights out of Spartan Nation, and though it’s not season-ending we don’t have much more clarity beyond that. Conklin had started 31 of the previous 32 games and has steadily improved over his strong career. But is he a left tackle? That’s likely what the Chiefs would need if they believe Eric Fisher’s long-term home is on the right side. Again, October is dart-throwing season as far as the draft goes. Conklin is not a special athlete, but he’s the kind of anchor Andy Reid looks for.

19. Dallas Cowboys — UCLA LB Myles Jack

Jack is betting on his healthy return from a torn ACL he suffered last month, and in this scenario the Cowboys are betting he’d be an impact defender — and, we think, a perfect fit in Rod Marinelli’s Tampa-2 scheme. With the unknown futures of Rolando McClain and Sean Lee in Dallas, the Cowboys could use another rangy playmaker who has a Derrick Brooks-like ceiling now that he’s fully committed to playing defense.

20. New York Giants — Georgia LB Leonard Floyd

The Giants were one of 10 NFL teams on hand to watch Floyd and the Bulldogs against Bama last Saturday, and though Floyd — as well as most of the UGA defense — had a quiet game he has been impactful this season as an edge rusher. The Giants might already have a player with a similar skill set in Devon Kennard, but Floyd would give a team that has the second-lowest sack-to-pass-attempt ratio in the NFL a little more fuel up front.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers — Duke S Jeremy Cash
If you were not smitten with Cash’s effort in the win over Georgia Tech (12 tackles, three TFLs, one sack, two forced fumbles, several big plays late), then we have nothing for you. Cash is a box safety/pseudo linebacker who could play a number of roles, including covering backs and tight ends and being an impact run defender. Can he play on the deep half? That’s the question for the 6-2, 205-pound Cash, but he has a chance to be a high pick for his instinctive and tough play.

22. Minnesota Vikings — Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
A little low for the first receiver to go off, eh? We agree. Treadwell could go as high as the top 10 with his game-changing ability, and though this admittedly feels too low we’d love him as Teddy Bridgwater’s eventual No. 1 in this situation. Treadwell has been unreal — even if his stats have been somewhat tame — coming off a devastating injury less than a year ago.

23. Carolina Panthers — Tennessee CB Cameron Sutton
If Josh Norman prices himself out of Charlotte (we’d assume the Raiders, among other teams, would make a big run at him if he hits the free-agent market), the Panthers likely would be looking hard at the draft’s top corners. Lost in the Vols’ disappointing season is the fact that the athletically gifted Sutton is having a fine season and could opt to turn pro with the UT program appearing to be in some disarray.

24. Buffalo Bills — Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
A power end who can rush the passer ferociously, Ogbah fills a need for the Bills, who might have to make a tough decision on Mario Williams after this season. Plus, for as strong as the Bills are up front, they still lack some edge pressure overall. Oh, we also would love to see them draft a quarterback, but the lack of talent at the position in this class and the emergence of Tyrod Taylor takes them in this direction. Ogbah could shock people with his athletic testing at the scouting combine at 6-4 and 273 pounds.

25. New York Jets — Texas A&M OT Germain Ifedi
GM Mike Maccagnan is committed to building the team from the inside out, and though the O-line has performed rather admirably thus far this season it’s time to add some youth at tackle, where D’Brickashaw Ferguson turns 32 in December and might be past his peak years. Ifedi has the strength and flexibility to play guard or tackle and is the latest in a long line of good Aggies linemen being regarded highly in NFL circles.

26. Seattle Seahawks — Wisconsin C Dan Voltz
We’re used to the Seahawks going a bit against the grain in Round 1 of the draft, so although this might appear to be a reach it fits in line with what the team tends to target. Right now, the weak spot on the offensive line — and there are a few — is at center, where Drew Nowak appears overmatched. Voltz is an experienced, tough and smart pivot who compares to the Cowboys’ Travis Frederick, who ended up being good value as a late first-rounder in 2013.

27. Arizona Cardinals — Baylor DE Shawn Oakman
This would be a coup for the Cardinals as they look to add another force player up front. Oakman would have a perfect tutor in the fierce, determined and businesslike Calais Campbell to set the tone up front. The Cardinals have worked in some rookies slowly, others a little faster, but they would have the luxury of not needing this talented but somewhat enigmatic defender to perform at a high level immediately. Performances such as the one he turned in against Texas Tech OT Le’Raven Clark are the kinds of things that could keep the body-of-a-Greek-god Oakman — who will be 24 when the draft rolls around — from going higher.

28. Atlanta Falcons — Georgia OLB Jordan Jenkins
Pass rusher two years in a row? Don’t put it against Dan Quinn and Co. Although the defense has played admirably well and 2015 first-rounder Vic Beasley has provided a nice dose of pressure, he sure could use a bookend rusher on the strong side. Jenkins wins with smarts, toughness and a pro-ready makeup that would appeal to Quinn and a team that is in win-now mode.

29. Denver Broncos — Baylor DT Andrew Billings
The stout plugger would be a nice fit inside on this top-five defense, allowing Sylvester Williams to play inside and outside on what could be a tremendous front. Do the Broncos have other needs? Sure. But Wade Phillips always has had an affinity for two things: impact nose tackles and raw strength inside. Billings checks off both of those boxes. He squatted 805 pounds, benched 500 and deadlifted 705 … as an 18-year-old high-school senior.

30. Cincinnati Bengals — USC LB/S Su’a Cravens
This is likely low for Cravens, who could put on a show in workouts and at the scouting combine, and his strong start to the season — 27 tackles (four for losses), two sacks, and an interception — bodes well for his draft potential. The Bengals have done a pretty good job of letting good players fall to them in the draft in recent years. I expect to see Cravens rise higher than this the way things are going.

31. Green Bay Packers — Ohio State DT Adolphus Washington
Athletic yet stout enough to play as a 3-4 end, Washington has been a multi-technique monster for the Buckeyes, showing great movement skills, light feet and a nose for the ball. We like CBS’ Dane Brugler’s comparison of Washington to former Ohio State DT Cameron Heyward, who just signed a $60 million extension with the Steelers and is a key cog in the Steelers’ 3-4 front that’s similar to the one the Packers run.

32. New England Patriots — (pick forfeited because of that deflate-gate thing/non-thing)

Just missed the cut: Penn State DL Austin Johnson, TCU WR Josh Doctson, California WR Kenny Lawler, Auburn DE Carl Lawson, Florida DE Jonathan Bullard, Ohio State OLB Darron Lee, Ohio State SS Vonn Bell, Ohio State WR Michael Thomas, Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun, Alabama LB Reggie Ragland, Alabama DL Jarran Reed, Pitt WR Tyler Boyd.

– – – – – – –

Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm