The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 5

We’ve made it through the first month and what was a very low scoring, uneven Week 4.  As usual, take note of the bye weeks during this time of the year. Make sure you get all of the Vikings, Jets, Dolphins and Panthers players to the bench this week.

As your token disclaimer and guide to this post, the intent isn’t a linear start/sit guide for rosters, but a vehicle to provide a game by game table of analysis with triple digit facts for the weekend. Take that information in conjunction with your own feelings and apply it to your Daily games and lineup conundrums. If you do wish to see my weekly player rankings, I do them weekly over at Fantasy Pros. Let’s roll into the Week 5 games…

Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.

Indianapolis vs. Houston

• DeAndre Hopkins leads all receivers with 20 targets 15 or more yards downfield, but just four have been complete. On throws 15 or more yards, Ryan Mallett is 5-22 while Brian Hoyer is 5-18.
• Mallett is 13th in the league in pass attempts (137), but 24th in completions (71).
• Houston averages the most plays per game in the first (37.8 plays) and second half (41.5) in the league.
• Hopkins’ first half splits for the season: 9 receptions, 106 yards on 23 targets. Second Half: 22 receptions, 304 yards on 37 targets.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Hopkins has already played 48 more snaps than the next-highest receiver (Keenan Allen) and run 38 more routes than the next closest non-Houston receiver (Jeremy Maclin).
• In his first game back, Arian Foster led the Texans backfield in snaps (33) and touches (11).
• Last week, Matt Hasselbeck was the first quarterback over 40 to throw a touchdown since Mark Brunell in 2011.
• T.Y. Hilton has gone over 75 receiving yards in five of six career games against Houston with six touchdowns.
• Donte Moncrief has had 19-23 percent of the Colts targets in every game this season.
• These two teams are the worst at first half scoring with a rate of 14 percent of their possessions. Houston has scored on four of 29 first half drives while Indianapolis has scored on just three of 22.

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (Vontae Davis is unlikely to play as well as Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington is questionable. Hopkins is devouring snaps and targets at an absurd pace), T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief (no matter the quarterback, both have shown quality floors that come with big upside)

Bust: Andrew Luck (his injury is ominous and he wasn’t playing well before it was officially released, tack on that it’s a Thursday game), Frank Gore (48 percent of his runs have gone for two yards or less and has been a disaster the goal line. If Luck starts, bump him up to lower RB2 starter), Ryan Mallett

Reasonable Return: Arian Foster (game script killed us getting a tangible look last week, but he got through it cleanly and was still rested for a short week), Coby Fleener (on a short week, Dwayne Allen could miss again. Fleener has been TE13 and TE2 in his absence)

Editor’s Note: Play against our writers in the Rotoworld Football Championship – a series of one-week fantasy contests on FanDuel with $20K in FREE prizes! Enter the Week 4 contest before it fills.

Buffalo vs. Tennessee

• Marcus Mariota ranks third in passing points per attempt (.632), behind Aaron Rodgers (.681) and Andy Dalton (.702).
• 53.5 percent of Mariota’s fantasy points have come from touchdowns, the highest rate of any quarterback.
• Mariota has been sacked on 11.6 percent of his dropbacks, highest rate in the league.
• Every quarterback to face Buffalo so far has attempted 35 passes or more.
• The Bills have allowed six top-24 wide receivers so far, tied with the Chiefs for the most in the league. Three have been primarily slot options in Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry and Dwayne Harris.
• Both of these teams are part of four teams (Browns and Raiders) that have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game so far.
• Charles Clay has continuously trended up, finishing as the TE20, TE15, TE4 and TE3.
• Clay had 31 percent of the team targets last week, a season high for any Bills player.
• After averaging .647 passing points per attempt through three weeks, Tyrod Taylor posted a .309 mark per attempt last week.

Trust: Charles Clay (with Sammy Watkins expected to miss again, expect another pile of targets against a team that has been giving to tight ends), Karlos Williams/LeSean McCoy (neither may play, but if they do, I’ll be all over them posting big weeks against a team that allowed 4.7 YPC to Doug Martin, 4.8 to Isaiah Crowell and 6.1 to Frank Gore), Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker (Buffalo has only allowed Gronk to cross 40 yards at tight end, but this offense is built to create space for the tight ends)

Bust: All Titans running backs (Tennessee has had a top-21 scorer in every week of the season, but they’ve been three different players so far. Avoid the group in this matchup)

Reasonable Return: Marcus Mariota (short passing attacks have been the way to approach handling the Bills so far, but needs solid protection this week), Tyrod Taylor (would bump him up if his playmakers were healthy. This may be the week we see him run a lot), RB Bills not Williams or McCoy (if both do miss, there’s likely a hodgepodge of Anthony Dixon and an ancillary player, but the matchup is strong), Percy Harvin (eight plus targets each of the past two weeks, but the floor is low)

Cleveland vs. Baltimore

• Duke Johnson (116 yards) and Isaiah Crowell (125 yards) are the first set of Cleveland backs to each have 100 yards from scrimmage in the same game since William Green and Lee Suggs in Week 6, 2004.
• Johnson has now seen his snap share increase every week this season, going from 43.7 percent, 53.1 and 53.3 to 60.6 percent last week.
• Johnson was targeted on 24.4 percent of his snaps last week, the highest mark of all running backs.
• Josh McCown‘s 77.8 completion percentage (21-27) on third down is the highest of all quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts.
• Travis Benjamin has played 77.3 and 78.9 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and leads the Browns with 20 targets.
• Gary Barnidge‘s 10.7 yards per target trails only Rob Gronkowski‘s 11.0 yard mark for all tight ends with 15 or more targets.
• The Ravens have allowed just eight catches for 31 yards total to tight ends this season.
• Cleveland is allowing 6.3 yards per play, 31st in the league.
• Justin Forsett ranks 31st of all running backs in receiving points with 16.1.
• 12 of Forsett’s 27 carries last week went for five or more yards after he had just eight such runs on his 39 carries through three weeks.

Trust: Justin Forsett (will have to be the entire offense this week and Cleveland has allowed a top-13 back every week so far)

Bust: Gary Barnidge, Isaiah Crowell (Baltimore just allowed their first 100-yard rusher since 2013 last week, don’t expect a repeat), Joe Flacco (he has no viable targets available)

Reasonable Return: Duke Johnson (role is growing weekly and reception floor makes him a solid play), Travis Benjamin (Cleveland is hell bent on making him happen), Josh McCown (the Browns’ passing game is devoid of an alpha talent, but they have been effective for three straight weeks), Kamar Aiken (expected volume increase, but also a low floor), Crockett Gillmore (if active, should be heavily involved and Cleveland has allowed three different tight ends to score)

Chicago vs. Kansas City

• Jeremy Maclin is the first Chiefs WR to have back to back 100-yard games since Dwayne Bowe in 2011 and the first to have consecutive 140 yard games since Frank Jackson in 1964.
• Maclin’s target percentage per route has been one of the most consistent in the league, going from 23.5 percent, 21.9 percent and 23.1 percent to 22.2 percent through four weeks.
• Maclin is just one of four wide receivers (Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman and Antonio Brown) to have 25 percent of his team’s targets in every game this season.
• With his 75 yards rushing on 11 carries last week, Jamaal Charles now has 11 games in his career with at least 70 rushing yards on fewer than 15 carries. The only running backs with more since the 1970 merger are James Brooks and DeAngelo Williams at 12 games each.
• Charles has carried the ball on just 25.9 percent of his snaps, 38th of all backs who average 20 snaps per game.
• Alex Smith‘s 386 passing yards last week bested his career high 378 passing yards from the 2014 postseason. It was just the fifth time in 109 career regular season starts he threw for 300 passing yards.
• Smith has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of the first four weeks.
• Kansas City has allowed 17 sacks over the past three weeks, most in the league.
• The Chiefs have allowed 13 red zone touchdowns, most in the league.
• Matt Forte leads the league in runs for five or more yards at 29 and is tied for the league lead in runs for 10 or more yards (11).
• Martellus Bennett had the third highest average weekly rank in 2014 at TE12.3. In his two full games with Jay Cutler this season, he’s been the TE10 and the TE1.

Trust: Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, Alex Smith, Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett

Bust: Eddie Royal (flip him into Jeffery’s spot if he’s inactive, but fourth in line for targets when this roster is a full go), Jay Cutler (the overall yardage should be here, but the daunting Vegas line and low projected team total has me staying away)

Reasonable Return: Alshon Jeffery (if he’s back, it’s a great matchup), Travis Kelce (the up and down pattern of his season suggests this is a plus week for Kelce, but has shown a TE17 floor twice already)

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.