Cole's recent approach vs. Cubs

Pirates ace Gerrit Cole has taken the next step in 2015. The UCLA product and former No. 1 overall pick has long had frontline velocity and stuff, but in his first two big-league seasons the results didn’t quite rise to meet the press clippings. That’s all changed this year, as the following numbers show …

(K%: Strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced; BB%: Walks as a percentage of batters faced; Soft%: Percentage of balls in play classified as weakly hit)

As you can see, there’s been significant improvement at the run-prevention level and at the underlying level. Part of Cole’s step forward has been skills growth and experience. As well, Cole has become more of a fastball-slider-sinker pitcher this year, and that more focused pitch mix has helped him make the strides noted above.

How will Gerrit Cole choose to use his powerful right arm against the Cubs on Wednesday night? (USATSI)

Cole, of course, is tasked with opposing Jake Arrieta and the Cubs on Wednesday night in the NL wild card game (CHC-PIT preview/GameTracker). As it happens, Cole this season has faced the Cubs on four occasions. In anticipation of Wednesday night’s “best of one” affair, let’s take a look at how the improved Cole has attacked Chicago hitters this season in those four starts.

Over those four starts, Cole has limited Cub hitters to an overall line of .225/.268/.236, which is pretty dominant, particularly in terms of power suppression. Now, let’s go start by start …

April 29: Pirates 8, Cubs 1

And here’s the lineup he faced …

And his pitch fix for the game in question …

Now some observations …

• Relative to his overall 2015 patters, Cole in this game used his sinker and curve a bit more than usual.
• He threw first-pitch fastball 75 percent of the time.
• Against right-handers, he went to the fastball and slider as his put-away pitch (i.e., with two strikes, while against lefties it was fastball, sinker, slider, for the most part. Cole this season has been much more comfortable using his slider against the opposite side, and that’s helped him conquer the modest platoon weaknesses he showed in the past. He throws the slider a little harder to lefties than he does hitters of the same hand, which probably helps it function as more of platoon-buster than it would otherwise.

As you can see, a strong outing by Cole, even though he took the loss. Now the Cubs lineup for this one …

Addison Russell had earned regular status by this point, but no Miguel Montero on account of Jon Lester‘s drawing the start for Chicago. This was also before Starling Castro played himself into something less than full-time, all-the-time duty.

The pitch mix …

• More sinkers and curves relative to last time, fewer four-seamers and sliders.
• Cole in this one also threw his sinker a healthy plurality of the time to left-handed hitters. That’s not typically a pitch you throw to the opposite side. This season, he’s thrown his two-seamer just 244 times to lefties, and 20 of those came in this start. Of course, scouting reports have much to do with approach, but some of it is based on feel during warm-ups and in the early encounters. Maybe Cole’s sinker just felt on. He increased his percentage of sinkers to left-handers when behind in the count, so it’s obvious he had confidence in that particular offering.

Sept. 15: Pirates 5, Cubs 4

And the Cubs’ lineup …

Kyle Schwarber, present and accounted for. What you see above is pretty similar to Joe Maddon’s Wednesday night lineup.

Pitch mix …

• Cole in this one started on eight days’ rest, and on Wednesday night he’ll be going on six-days’ rest. In 13 career starts on extra rest, he’s been less effective than usual (3.97 ERA, 2.90 K/BB when pitching on six or more days of rest), but that wasn’t the case on Sept. 15.
• Here, Cole continues the pattern of using his curve more each time he faces the Cubs. He particularly liked it in the first pitch of an at-bat, against both LHBs and RHBs.
• Otherwise, he was fastball-slider heavy against both sides in this start. He liked his four-seamer regardless of whether he was ahead or behind in the count.
• Given the lineup and rest similarities, this could be closest to Cole’s wild-card game approach. First-pitch curves, particularly to right-handed hitters, might be something to watch for.

Sept. 25: Pirates 3, Cubs 2

This is the Cole gem that kept the Cubs’ playoff-clinching champagne unpopped. Cubs lineup …

Pitch mix …

Regarding what you see above …

• Cole backed off on the curve this time around and went fastball-heavy. He touched 99 with the four-seamer on this day, so it crackling, especially by the standards of late September.
• What’s interesting is that Cole’s pitch percentages didn’t change too much regardless of what side of the plate the hitter was on. That generally held true throughout all ball-strike counts, too.
• Cole flashed the slider a bit more the third time through the order. However, in a do-or-die game like the one on Wednesday, even if he’s pitching well he may not see the Chicago lineup a third time.

As for his fifth start of 2015 against the Cubs, that situation is … developing.

(Data: Baseball-Reference, Brooks Baseball, FanGraphs)

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