Last week, I regressed to the mean in the best way possible. If you bailed on my picks — which I can’t blame anyone for doing — I’m sorry, you left too early.
A ridiculous 9-1 performance in Week 5 has me back to .500 at 25-25 on the season. Get hot and stay hot is the motto, so with that in mind here are my 10 over-under plays for Week 6.
Northwestern at Michigan UNDER 35: M00N 2: Electric Boogaloo is set to take place this weekend, and, that’s right, the point total is set at 35. The lowest closing point total since 2003 was 34.5 and this is a serious contender to break that record — ironically, the week after the record-high point total record got broken.
The thing is, this total still isn’t low enough for me. Michigan’s defense is filthy. The Wolverines haven’t allowed a point in two games and only 14 in the last four.
Northwestern’s defense is just as ridiculously good. You know that Stanford offense that’s been lighting up Pac-12 opponents? It scored just six points at Northwestern in the opener.
These two defenses are the two best scoring defenses in the country, allowing 7.0 points (Northwestern) and 7.6 points (Michigan) respectively. Neither offense is what one would call a juggernaut and this game should be played at as slow a pace as is possible.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this game finishes under 25 total points, so I’m absolutely on this under — bet get it quickly before it drops any more.
Wake Forest at Boston College UNDER 37: Another total well under 40 that I’m still taking the under on, and I don’t have to offer up too much.
The Eagles’ offense is incredibly bad, but the defense is fantastic. Since beating Howard 76-0, Boston College has scored 0, 17 and 7 points. The point totals in those games have been 14, 31 and 16.
Also, in the season opener, BC won 24-3 over Maine. The Eagles just don’t play high-scoring games. Under, please.
Akron at Eastern Michigan UNDER 54: This is a battle of two trends. Akron’s been hitting unders all season (4-1 under) while Eastern Michigan’s been crushing the over (4-1 over). So, something’s got to give this week and I think it holds under the total.
Akron’s coming off a 14-12 loss to Ohio and the Zips just don’t score enough for me to think this game will run the over. Eastern Michigan gave LSU a fight in Baton Rouge last week and, while I know the Eagles defense is bad, I think Akron’s offense is equally miserable.
Arkansas at Alabama UNDER 49.5: The Razorbacks are CRUSHING unders this year. Arkansas is a cool 4-1 on unders to start the season, and have done so against teams like Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Alabama just released its anger on the poor Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, and even with an official #BeatEmDown, the Tide held under the number.
Arkansas’ offense is going to find it hard to move the rock against Alabama and the pace of this game figures to be extremely slow. The Tide should roll in this one, but not in a high-scoring affair.
Washington at USC UNDER 56: The Huskies have been a really good under team this year (3-1 on unders) and just held the high-powered Cal offense to a 30-point performance in its last game. Washington has had a bye week to prepare for USC, while the Trojans might be peeking ahead on the schedule to a trip to Notre Dame next week.
The Huskies are yet to touch 56 total points in a game this season and I think that defense does enough of a job against the Trojans to hold this under the number and keep that streak intact.
Tulane at Temple UNDER 48.5: Temple at home has hit the under five out of its last six home games. Outside of the Cincinnati game — where Cincy has been over four out of five games — Temple has landed under this 48.5 total in every game this season.
The Owls are at home against a Tulane team that has not fared well against quality competition on the road — a combined 17 points against Duke and Georgia Tech to start the year. Temple’s defense should hold Tulane to a low output and keep this under the total.
New Mexico State at Ole Miss OVER 70.5: This is an ANGRY Ole Miss team coming home after an embarrassing loss to Florida last week going up against one of the nation’s worst scoring defenses — 126th at 45.8 ppg. That’s a recipe for disaster for the Aggies, and the Rebels might just cover this over by themselves.
Miami (FL) at Florida State OVER 49.5: The total in Miami’s games this season has gone over 50 in each game except for the opener — a 45-0 win over Bethune-Cookman. The Hurricanes’ defense was shredded in the first half by Cincinnati last week and now they must face the Seminoles on the road — star RB Dalvin Cook is questionable for Saturday.
Florida State has not been impressive yet this season, but a home game against rival Miami — following a very lackluster showing at Wake Forest — might be just what the Seminoles need to wake up a slumbering offense.
Boise State at Colorado State OVER 58.5: Boise State is starting to get in the Georgia Southern zone for me. The Broncos have put 50 points up in the last three games, and I’ll take them to hit the over in most games where it lands in the 50s — against a borderline competent offense, that is.
The Rams are, indeed, a borderline competent offense that should be capable of finding two touchdowns against the Broncos. If they do that, then this game should go over the total.
East Carolina at BYU OVER 54.5: BYU’s defense isn’t particularly good — they’ve allowed 24 or more in four out of five games — and the offense is fine, despite what that Michigan game may have said.
East Carolina is a confusing team, with a win over Virginia Tech and a close loss to Florida alongside a beatdown at the hands of Navy. However, almost all of its games have been high scoring — average point total of 60.8 this season.
I think this total should be right around that 60 number, but got put lower because of the perception of BYU after the Michigan loss — which I think says more about Michigan than the Cougars.
I like the over here, fairly comfortably.
Michigan and Northwestern will meet in a battle of the two best scoring defenses in college football. (USATSI)
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