NFL Power Rankings: Which 4-0 team is most likely to miss the playoffs?

Since 1990, NFL teams that start 4-0 make the playoffs 83 percent of the time.

So the teams that have made it through the first quarter of the season without a loss are in great shape. It also means that one of every six 4-0 teams does not make the playoffs. There are six undefeated teams in the NFL right now (we’ll use the 3-0 New England Patriots in the 4-0 group as well, for fun).

So if, by history, one of the six is going to miss the playoffs, which team is most likely to miss the party?

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We can probably cross the Patriots and Green Bay Packers off the list quickly. Only a quarterback injury is keeping then out, and even then they might have a shot at sneaking in.

The Denver Broncos? It seems impossible that they’ll go on a long losing streak with that defense. Even if their wins have all been relatively close, I don’t see them losing seven games.

The Cincinnati Bengals have to be considered. They’ve played very well, but Andy Dalton’s play has turned on a dime before, and it could again with the Bengals’ fortunes going with him. I’m on board with the Bengals being for real, but come on, nobody would be too surprised if they fall apart.

Are we positive the Atlanta Falcons are a postseason lock? They’re playing pretty well, though they did need two big comebacks against the Cowboys and Giants and barely held on against an Eagles rally in Week 1. They look good but they shouldn’t start printing playoff tickets yet.

But if we have to pick one of The Undefeated Six to miss the playoffs, it has to be the Carolina Panthers. Are you totally sold? Cam Newton is carrying a huge load on his shoulders, and doing it tremendously well. But the Panthers seem vulnerable to injuries, especially on offense. They’re already thin at the skill positions. The Panthers have won games against teams quarterbacked by Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett, Luke McCown and Jameis Winston. And the Panthers have been outgained by those opponents 1,356-1,288. They have had two road games, but both short trips to Florida.

Credit to them for handling business to this point, but the road hasn’t been very tough. If you’re going to say that one of the six teams will fit right into the 17 percent of 4-0 teams that doesn’t make the playoffs, the obvious choice is the Panthers. There’s more reason to be skeptical of them than the other five.

Here are Shutdown Corner’s power rankings after Week 4:

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3, Last week: 30)

Sunday’s game was a scary one for the Jaguars, as it pertains to Blake Bortles. The Colts begged the Jaguars to win, but Bortles was not good enough to make the plays necessary to get it done. It doesn’t mean Bortles isn’t going to be a good quarterback. But Sunday was alarming.

31. Chicago Bears (1-3, LW: 32)

A nice win. There will be other days to wonder if or how that affected their 2016 draft status. But you don’t wanna be stuck on zero too long.

30. San Francisco 49ers (1-3, LW: 28)

Colin Kaepernick (AP) The odd thing about Colin Kaepernick lately is he’s not even throwing it as well as he has in years past. A few of his interceptions the past few weeks just haven’t had a lot of velocity. And no matter what we said about Kaepernick in years past, his physical tools were never in question.

29. New Orleans Saints (1-3, LW: 31)

Drew Brees obviously wasn’t fully healthy, which makes his 359-yard game against the Cowboys impressive. Though clearly C.J. Spiller gets most of the credit for the last 80 yards.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3, LW: 29)

The Buccaneers have been pretty bad in three of four games, but dominated the Saints in the other game at the Superdome. I don’t get it either.

27. Houston Texans (1-3, LW: 24)

Ryan Mallett will start again for the Texans on Thursday. It doesn’t really matter that much.

26. Cleveland Browns (1-3, LW: 23)

Duke Johnson had 45 snaps at running back this week, and Isaiah Crowell had 27 according to Pro Football Focus. Wouldn’t be a surprise if that gap continues to grow.

25. Detroit Lions (0-4, LW: 22)

It’s weird that this is the last winless team in the NFL. I don’t think they’re that bad. If not for a blown call Monday night, they’d have won at Seattle.

24. Miami Dolphins (1-3, LW: 20)

I don’t know if interim coach Dan Campbell will make much of a difference. But I do know Joe Philbin wasn’t going to turn it around.

23. Washington Redskins (2-2, LW: 27)

Jay Gruden deserves credit. I don’t think anyone thought Washington would be very good this year. They have been competitive in three of four games. They’ll still need to prove they can play well on the road, but it’s something.

22. Tennessee Titans (1-2, LW: 25)

The Titans get the Bills this week. Rex Ryan will throw everything at Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Fun matchup.

21. Oakland Raiders (2-2, LW: 18)

Charles Woodson (AP) Charles Woodson is still an impact playmaker in his 18th season. It’s amazing. His interception of Jay Cutler was almost the key play in a Raiders win, though Chicago came back to win at the end. If we’re making a short list of greatest defensive backs in NFL history, Woodson has to be somewhere on it.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3, LW: 17)

DeMarco Murray had a 30-yard run. That’s great news. His other seven carries gained 6 yards. Ryan Mathews, anyone?

19. Baltimore Ravens (1-3, LW: 19)

Without Steve Smith, who in the heck is Joe Flacco going to throw to? They now have the worst receiving corps in the NFL, until Smith comes back at least.

18. St. Louis Rams (2-2, LW: 21)

It was a costly win for the Rams, losing linebacker Alec Ogletree to an ankle injury that required surgery. He might be done for the year. That’s no small loss; Ogletree is a phenomenal playmaker.

17. San Diego Chargers (2-2, LW: 16)

I think I liked the Chargers more after their two losses in a row than after Sunday’s win. A last-second field goal to beat the Browns at home? Really? And they even needed a big break to get that last field goal, as the Browns jumped offsides on a miss.

16. Indianapolis Colts (2-2, LW: 15)

Andre Johnson has seven catches for 51 yards in four games. His return to Houston this week will get a lot of attention, especially on the broadcast I’m sure, and it’s a neat story. He’s a great player. But I’m not sure Johnson can make it a very memorable homecoming on the field.

15. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3, LW: 14)

The last three weeks they played the Broncos, Packers and Bengals. Not fun to lose three in a row but it’s also hard to blame them too much. That’s a brutal stretch.

14. Dallas Cowboys (2-2, LW: 12)

They led by 14 points three separate times against a pretty good Falcons team. They took the Saints to overtime on the road. So the Cowboys aren’t helpless without Tony Romo. But at some point you need to produce some results. It won’t be easier with the Patriots up next.

13. New York Giants (2-2, LW: 26)

Newsday reported Monday that defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul could possibly return for the final four games. Who knows if he can play like we’re used to seeing, but what a late-season boost that could possibly be for New York.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, LW: 9)

Michael Vick (AP) It will be interesting to see if Michael Vick throws the ball downfield more, or if the play-calling allows it. It’s really hard to win in the NFL when you have no downfield passing game.

11. Minnesota Vikings (2-2, LW: 10)

If the Vikings play as well as they did at Denver on Sunday, they’re going to win a lot of games against the teams that aren’t nearly as good as the Broncos.

10. Carolina Panthers (4-0, LW: 11)

If the Panthers keep it going like this, Cam Newton should get into the MVP conversation. He’s doing a great job without half the help the other top quarterbacks have.

9. Buffalo Bills (2-2, LW: 7)

Maybe we shouldn’t have been all full steam ahead on that Karlos Williams train. In place of LeSean McCoy Williams had 40 yards on 18 carries. A million new Williams owners in fantasy football wept.

8. New York Jets (3-1, LW: 13)

I dislike that coaches refuse to make necessary moves just because they don’t want to mess with a winning streak. The Jets are winning but it’s not like Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing out of his mind. It’ll be an interesting call for coach Todd Bowles when Geno Smith is healthy again.

7. Seattle Seahawks (2-2, LW: 6)

I know there are issues. The offense is a mess. They probably deserve to be moved down more. But look at the teams above them … how many would you truly pick on a neutral field against the Seahawks?

6. Arizona Cardinals (3-1, LW: 5)

The Cardinals are a good team, but I hope the plane tickets Arizona fans were buying to the Super Bowl last week are refundable. The hype machine got a little bit out of control last week.

5. Atlanta Falcons (4-0, LW: 8)

If you’re voting on NFL coach of the year today, it has to be Dan Quinn, right?

4. Denver Broncos (4-0, LW: 4)

For most of Sunday, when Teddy Bridgewater hit the back step of his drop he had a pass rusher in his lap. This Broncos defense is on a Seahawks level.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (4-0, LW: 3)

Among all quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers is first in quarterback rating at 125.9. Tom Brady is third at 119.6. In between them is Andy Dalton at 123. What a world.

2. Green Bay Packers (4-0, LW: 2)

Colin Kaepernick was not good on Sunday, but the Packers’ defense had something to do with that. They have allowed just 26 first-half points all year.

1. New England Patriots (3-0, LW: 1)

The Patriots have passed 133 times and ran the ball 71 times. But yet we’ll still hear people say you need to run the ball to win championships, when that’s clearly not true anymore.

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