NEW YORK — Tuesday night, the 2015 postseason will officially get underway with the AL wild-card game. The Yankees will host the Astros at Yankee Stadium at 8pm ET. The game will air on ESPN. Winner plays the Royals in the ALDS, loser goes home.
Both the Yankees and Astros were among the highest scoring teams in baseball in 2015. New York averaged 4.72 runs per game, second most behind the Blue Jays (5.50!), while the Astros ranked sixth at 4.50 runs per game. Houston finished second in MLB with 230 home runs, the Yankees fourth with 212 homers.
Of course, runs may be at a premium in Tuesday’s wild-card game because each club is throwing their ace. Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel will be on the bump for the Astros while Masahiro Tanaka will get the ball for the Yankees. Let’s preview the pitching matchup.
LHP Dallas Keuchel, Astros: 20-8, 2.48 ERA (162 ERA+), 1.02 WHIP in 232 IP
Keuchel had an excellent season, a Cy Young caliber season, but it’s important to note he will be starting the wild-card game on three days’ rest. He started Friday night and threw 99 pitches across six innings. This will be Keuchel’s first big league start on short rest.
“I’ve done it a few times over the course of my career, not in professional ball, but I did it in college with the College World Series in Omaha. But it’s just something that’s going to need to be done,” said Keuchel on Monday. “And whether or not I feel good when the game starts, it’s going to be up to me to start the game and help the team win. So I’m very blessed I’m in this position, and I’m going to give them everything I’ve got and we’ll see at the end of the game whether that’s good enough or not.”
Keuchel faced the Yankees twice this season and totally dominated: 16 scoreless innings with nine hits allowed, one walk and 21 strikeouts. That includes seven innings of three-hit ball in Yankee Stadium on August 25. Here are his career head-to-head numbers against the Yankees:
There’s not much history here, unsurprisingly. This is only Keuchel’s third full season as a big leaguer and the Yankees and Astros aren’t division rivals. My guess is Young will be in the lineup Tuesday night, possibly in place of Gardner.
The Yankees really struggled against left-handed pitchers late in the season — they went 3-7 in their last 10 games against lefty starters — at least partly due to the loss of Mark Teixeira. Bird has filled in capably at first base since a foul ball broke Teixeira’s shin, but he is a left-handed hitter who didn’t touch lefties the final few weeks of the season. Teixeira’s switch-hitting power bat will be missed against Keuchel.
RHP Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: 12-7, 3.51 ERA (114 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP in 154 innings
A minor hamstring injury forced Tanaka to the sideline late last month, but he returned last week and looked rusty, allowing four runs in five innings against the Red Sox. He’ll be making the wild-card game start on extra rest. In fact, he made 19 of his 24 starts with extra rest this season. The Yankees have played it very safe with Tanaka following last year’s elbow injury.
Tanaka made one regular season start against the Astros this year and struggled, getting tagged for six runs in five innings at Minute Maid Park. That included three homers, one each by Chris Carter, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Here are Tanaka’s career numbers against Houston’s lineup:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Valbuena | 9 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .556 | .889 |
| Jose Altuve | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1.667 |
| Carlos Correa | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | 1.667 | 2.333 |
| Evan Gattis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Carlos Gomez | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 2.500 |
| Jed Lowrie | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Colby Rasmus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jon Singleton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| George Springer | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Chris Carter | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 |
| Jason Castro | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 37 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | .324 | .378 | .706 | 1.084 |
As with Keuchel and the Astros, there isn’t a whole lot of history between Tanaka and the Astros. Much less than Keuchel and the Yankees, in fact.
“Obviously I remember it not being a good one, a good outing,” said Tanaka through his translator on Monday when asked about his rough start against the Astros earlier this season. “But I do remember that I wasn’t at my best during that particular time. So this time around it’s going to be different.”
Offensively, the Astros had the second highest strikeout rate (22.9 percent) and 11th highest chase rate on pitches out of the zone (31.3 percent) in 2015. Tanaka, meanwhile, had the second highest chase rate (38.6 percent) among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings this season. So we’ve got a matchup between a pitcher who gets hitters to expand the zone as well as anyone and an offense known to chase pitches off the plate. That could be an interesting combination.
Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel will square off in Tuesday’s wild-card game. (USATSI)
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