AL wild card preview: It’s youth against experience when Astros meet Yankees

They’re both surprises when you think about it. Nobody expected the young and re-tooled Houston Astros to make the postseason this year. In a couple years? Sure. But 2015 is ahead of the schedule.

Likewise, the New York Yankees weren’t a popular postseason pick, not with their aging lineup and injury concerns headed into the season. But here they both are, playing for the season in the AL wild-card game on Tuesday night.

Expectations aside, the teams are quite different — there’s the young and postseason-inexperienced Astros and the veteran Yankees, who have been there time and time and time before, although this group in particular hasn’t been to the postseason since 2012. Both teams can score runs, though, whether it’s the one of the Houston’s sluggers hitting the ball out of the ballpark or if that’s ever-surprising Alex Rodriguez, whose offensive contributions are even more important with Mark Teixeira sidelined.

Whoever wins, they have a tough task ahead, facing the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS. Now let’s have a closer look at the matchup.

PARTICULARS
First pitch is at 8:07 p.m. ET Tuesday at Yankee Stadium in New York. The game airs live on ESPN. Rosters haven’t been announced yet.

PITCHERS
The postseason will kick off with a dandy pitching matchup. The Astros will send Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48) to the hill against the Yankees’ prized free-agent signing from a year ago, Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51).

It’s an interesting matchup for several reasons. Chief among them, Keuchel is enjoying the type of season Tanaka did in his rookie campaign. Houston’s 27-year-old left-hander has been a bulldog on the hill and a true difference maker. Like Tanaka, Keuchel is more comfortable at home (15-0, 1.46) than on the road (5-8, 3.77), but he’s the clear choice to make this start, even on three days’ rest.

As for Tanaka, he hasn’t been a picture this season either. After missing three months while rehabilitating a partial ligament tear in his elbow last season, Tanaka missed an additional six weeks this season nursing a right forearm flexor tendon issue. Tanaka also suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain on Sept. 18 while running out of the batter’s box. Manager Joe Girardi says he’s good to go, but it’s possible he won’t be 100 percent.

PREVIOUSLY
The Astros led the season series 4-3 against the Yankees. The teams split a four-game series in Houston at the end of June, before the Astros won two of three in New York from Aug. 24-26. Of note here, Dallas Keuchel has not allowed a run in two starts against the Yankees this season. He allowed just nine hits and one walk while striking out 21 over 16 innings.

Yankees reliever Dellin Betances is one of the keys to their bullpen. (Getty Images)

THE YANKEES WILL WIN IF …
They get to the seventh inning with a lead. The Yankees are a remarkable 66-3 when leading after six innings, which is about five wins better than the AL average. The back-end of their bullpen is stacked lefty Justin Wilson and perhaps the game’s most dominant reliever in Dellin Betances. Then there’s closer Andrew Miller, who’s 36 of 38 in save chances and sports a 1.91 ERA. It might not be the Royals are all over again, but it’s close.

THE ASTROS WILL WIN IF…
Dallas Keuchel is on his game. We’ve already noted his overall numbers this season and his numbers against the Yankees. But it will be interesting to see how effective he can be on short rest. It’s still the right call knowing that Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers pitched over the weekend and Scott Kazmir is struggling, but how Keuchel sets the tone will be huge in this game.

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS

• 442: Homers hit this season by the Astros and Yankees combined. Houston ranked No. 2 in MLB while New York ranked No. 4. Think we might see a homer or two?

• 1.31: The difference between the Houston Astros’ team ERA for the 2015 season (a very good 3.57) and their ERA in September (4.88).

• 10.80: Masahiro Tanaka’s ERA against the Astros this season. He gave up six runs in five innings in a June start against them. But, hey, the Yankees won that game.

• 0: Times in his career that Keuchel has pitched on three days’ rest.

• .120: A-Rod’s batting average in the 2012 postseason, in which he went 2-for-16 in the ALDS then 1-for-9 in the ALCS.

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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813

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