Goal Line Stand: Week 4 Rankings

Updated 10/4 at 1:15 AM ET. Moved Chris Ivory down based on ESPN New York’s report that the Jets are worried he may not be able to finish Sunday morning’s game against the Dolphins. Moved down Eric Decker due to continued concern about his status. 

The first thing you notice about Latavius Murray is his size. Unusually big for a running back at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Murray looks it on the field. He’s not sneaking through any holes or blending in with any defensive backs. This is a big dude, one not dissimilar to the back he’s replacing, Darren McFadden.

Like DMC, Murray had 4.4 wheels coming out of college, but he’s faster than quick. Murray isn’t juking guys out of their shoes in tight spaces. He’s making one cut and looking for what’s blocked. But when Murray does get in the open field, he has the jets to hit home runs, as last year’s 90-yard touchdown against the Chiefs can attest. In rushing for a career-high 139 yards against the Browns, Murray mixed in a 54-yard scamper that reversed fields and set the tone for the second half.

The RB6 through the season’s first three weeks, Murray was quiet in Week 1, solid in Week 2 and spectacular in Week 3. His big day came against the league’s worst run defense, but that’s something good players are supposed to do: Beat up on bad competition. Murray has another mouthwatering matchup for Week 4, the soft collection of 11 players the Bears call a “defense.” John Fox’s unit was already allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 135.7 yards per game, and then it went and traded Jared Allen. Allen has never been much of a run defender, but his loss further thins an already laughably-thin defense, and forces a new starting 11 onto the field just as Murray is coming to town.

Murray may not be an elite player, but he’s done what’s been expected of him thus far in 2015, and what’s expected on Sunday is a top-five day against a bottom-five defense.     

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Week 4 Quarterbacks

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QB Notes: Aaron Rodgers has just 5.7 fewer fantasy points than Tom Brady on 341 fewer yards. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. His last pick at Lambeau Field came a month after Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election. He is the best player in football, and this week he gets the collapsing 49ers. … Andrew Luck’s YPAs by week: 4.96, 6.76 and 8.67. The never-ending Twitter debate has still managed to commit at least two turnovers in every start, but seems to be finding the lay of the land with his new skill corps behind his ramshackle offensive line. The Jaguars, who have been getting smoked by the pass, offer another stepping stone matchup. … Carson Palmer is the QB6, which is fairly remarkable considering that the Cardinals have had their past two games salted away by halftime. Blowout potential remains for Week 4 against the Rams, but run-it-up coach Bruce Arians has no love lost for Jeff Fisher’s squad. Palmer should burn Janoris Jenkins and company for at least 2-3 scores before trading in his helmet for a clipboard.

Ndamukong Suh took the Lions’ defense with him (Aside: And then lost it.). Detroit is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and getting smoked for an 8.7 YPA against. The Lions are coughing up a weekly 284 yards through the air. With Russell Wilson throwing more than ever, he should have another easy day at home as the Seahawks continue to work the kinks out of their offense. … Just like it was premature to declare Peyton Manning “dead,” it’s premature to call him “back,” but Week 3 was a huge step in the right direction. Manning completed 31-of-42 passes in his first 300-yard game of the season, and unlike Week 2’s “maybe he’s not done” performance against the Chiefs, he didn’t throw 2-3 more passes that could have been intercepted. Manning’s arm strength has sailed down river, but he’s still got command of the boat. … Matt Ryan is playing arguably the best football of his career, but some fluky touchdown luck — Leonard Hankerson and Julio Jones getting tackled at the one in Week 2, Devonta Freeman becoming Emmitt Smith in Week 3 — means he doesn’t have the scores to show for it. Some positive regression can’t be far away. Despite the presence of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, the Texans have yet to be an imposing matchup for opposing passers.

Cam Newton is completing just 56.5 percent of his passes. His 6.92 YPA would be the lowest of his career. And yet, here he is, the QB4 through three games. He has his legs to thank. Newton is averaging 10.3 runs per game, putting him on pace for 165. That would better his previous career best by 38, no small margin for a quarterback. There are going to be games where Newton’s total lack of a receiver corps nukes his fantasy output, but going up against Lovie Smith’s barely-there defense, Week 4 will not be one of them. … So Newton is the QB4. Can you guess the QB3? Not even Andy Dalton would guess Andy Dalton, but alas. Dalton has tossed multiple scores in each of his first three starts, a remarkable feat considering A.J. Green entered Week 3 with just eight catches for 108 yards. Dalton’s peaks tend to give way to vast valleys, but it’s hard to see how he doesn’t keep his hot start going against the Chiefs. No team has allowed more fantasy points to enemy QBs, and Andy Reid’s team will be playing on the road in a short week six days after getting demolished by Aaron Rodgers. Dalton is a QB1 for Week 4.

So we’ve covered the QB3 and the QB4. How about the QB5, Tyrod Taylor. Obvious caveats apply. A huge chunk of Taylor’s production came in garbage time against the Patriots, while opposing defensive coordinators are just now getting a batch of film to study. But this is a player who has been remarkably poised through his first three NFL starts, completing 74.4 percent of his passes while remaining patient in the pocket. It’s quite possible we’ve already witnessed Taylor’s best three-game stretch, but he’s not going away, especially in Week 4 against the Giants’ slipshod defense. … Philip Rivers is coming off a tough day in Minnesota, but gets a Browns defense that hasn’t been living up to its reputation against the pass. Only six teams are permitting a worse opposing passer rating. … Joe Flacco has rallied after his dreadful Week 1, and now gets the Steelers’ undermanned secondary for Thursday Night Football. The only downside is that the golden matchup is coming on a short week. … The Bills’ supposedly dominant pass defense has looked anything but the past two weeks, but the QB22 thus far, it’s hard to trust Eli Manning as anything more than a borderline QB1 on the road in Buffalo.  

Is Derek Carr for real? It’s too early to tell, but it’s not too early to declare this the best two-game stretch of his career. Stretch — that’s something Amari Cooper has been helping Carr do to opposing defenses after he posted a pitiful 5.46 YPA as a rookie. There are going to be more growing pains, but Carr has forced his way into QB1 consideration for A+ matchups like the one he has against the Bears. … It’s a good matchup for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but let last week serve as a reminder that he’s often a good matchup for opposing defenses, as well. … Sam Bradford hasn’t been good. There’s really no way around it. I still believe in the matrimony of Bradford’s arm to Chip Kelly’s system, but it’s hard to muster excitement for the former No. 1 overall pick in a tough road date with the Redskins. … Michael Vick has become a poor impression of his former self, but has just enough big-play ability remaining that he can be a serviceable QB2 in good matchups like the one he has on Thursday evening. Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown can do the heavy lifting. … Is this a new Brandon Weeden? It’s certainly a new offensive line for the 31-year-old redshirt junior to play behind. The Saints are so pathetic that Weeden is firmly on the QB2 radar.    

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