NFL against the spread picks: That amazing Steelers’ collapse
The Baltimore Ravens were favored by 2.5 points at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.
So many folks were either baffled or thrilled by one of the most stupefying coaching games of the season (well, at least the ones that didn’t involve Andy Reid handing it off for no reason with less than a minute to go). I was on the Steelers side, so let’s take a look at how the Steelers blew this one, shall we?
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2:29 left, fourth quarter: On fourth and 5, the Steelers trotted out Josh Scobee for a 49-yard field goal. I didn’t get this when it was happening. He’s a shaky kicker, in a stadium that’s notoriously tough on kickers. If Scobee missed, the Ravens don’t need to get much to get in range for their great kicker, Justin Tucker. Even if Scobee makes it the game isn’t over; you’re just up 6 points. The worst option was kicking a field goal. Punting here is insanely conservative but I still understand that better than a field-goal attempt. They kicked a field goal. Scobee missed.
2:04 left, fourth quarter: The Steelers forced a turnover on downs. If you’re Pittsburgh you know you can’t just try another long field goal with Scobee. With exactly 2:04 left, you can attempt a pass that will burn four seconds. All you’re doing by running is using four seconds. Four. On this possession you can’t just run it straight into the line three times to kick a long field goal. The Steelers ran for the first of three times right into the line.
1:06 left, fourth quarter: When Scobee came out for a 41-yarder, did you think he was going to make it? Me either. Again, once he misses, the Ravens’ field position isn’t bad and they don’t need a ton of yards for Tucker. Scobee missed. Tucker sent the game to overtime.
12:37 left, overtime: The Steelers have one of the best running backs in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell, and one of the best receivers, Antonio Brown. They called a quarterback sweep on fourth and 2 for their 35-year-old backup quarterback, Michael Vick. Vick was stuffed. What the heck was that? The whole game, offensive coordinator Todd Haley called it like he’d break out in hives if Vick had to throw it more than 4 yards downfield. This was another “we can’t trust Vick to pass” moment. But they trusted him to run. Whatever.
9:45 left, overtime: Fourth and 1. For all the arguing Phil Simms and Jim Nantz did on CBS for trying a 50-yard field goal, they’re wrong. The odds of the Steelers getting 1 yard are far, far, far better than Scobee (4-for-8 at home this season) nailing a 51-yard field goal. I don’t even know why Simms and Nantz would think twice about this, and have no idea why we heard about it for 20 minutes after the decision. Easy choice to go for it. And I don’t hate the out route to Brown. He was open. Vick just blew the pass. Maybe that’s why Haley was allergic to having Vick throw anything downfield.
So that’s how you take a game that you had a 93.8 percent chance to win (according to pro-football-reference.com), after James Harrison’s fourth-and-10 sack with 2:04 left in regulation and lose it.
Here are the against the spread picks for Week 4. Hope you got a lucky Ravens win to start your week:
Steelers (+2.5) over Ravens (picked Thursday): Moving on.
Jets (-1) over Dolphins: I’d like to see the Dolphins play hard once this season before I pick them again.
Texans (+6.5) over Falcons: I like the Falcons’ offense, they’re playing well, but it just seems like a few too many points.
Giants (+6) over Bills: The Giants had a few extra days to prepare, if you’re being very positive you can say they should be 3-0, and the backdoor cover should be open for the Giants’ offense even if they’re behind late.
Bears (+2.5) over Raiders: Not sure I’m willing to buy the Raiders as a road favorite against anyone yet. And yes, the Bears punted 10 times on 10 possessions last week … against the Seahawks. News flash: The Raiders’ defense is not Seattle’s defense.
Bengals (-4) over Chiefs: If I’m going to believe the Bengals are legit, I also have to buy into them handling business in games like these.
Jaguars (+9) over Colts: Haven’t seen anything from the Colts to get me to lay 9 points with them against anyone. Not to mention the Andrew Luck injury situation.
Buccaneers (+3) over Panthers: Tampa Bay is just that team (along with the Rams) that we never know if they’ll show up or not. I have no idea what to make of the Bucs in this game. I’ll just take the home dog.
Redskins (+3) over Eagles: Washington has played two home games and battled hard in both, going 1-1. The Redskins looked really bad last Thursday night against the Giants, but that happens on the short week sometimes. I don’t think Washington is any good, but I’m not sure the Eagles are right now either. There’s also a chance of terrible weather, and I’d rather have the points if that’s the case.
Chargers (-7.5) over Browns: Just because the Chargers lost tough back-to-back road games doesn’t make them a bad team. The Browns, on the other hand, might be a bad team.
Vikings (+6.5) over Broncos: I think Minnesota has a good shot at an upset here. The Broncos’ defense is great, I’m not sure yet the offense is, and most of their games will be low-scoring grinders. The Vikings should be in it at the end.
Rams (+6.5) over Cardinals: If I could pass every Rams game I would. When a team is this talented and this poorly coached, you can’t predict them.
49ers (+8.5) over Packers: A week ago, the line for 49ers at Cardinals was 6.5 points. Now they come home (so swing the normal 3-point home-field advantage in the 49ers’ way instead of against them), and the line is 2 points higher? Is Green Bay rated 8 points higher than Arizona? I highly doubt that. It means that there’s a huge overreaction to the 49ers looking awful a week ago.
Cowboys (off) over Saints: No line on the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em because we don’t know yet if Drew Brees will play. I’ll go with the Cowboys either way, because I don’t think Brees will be 100 percent yet if he plays, and I can’t imagine the Cowboys make the mistake of employing such a conservative passing game plan a second week in a row.
Seahawks (-9.5) over Lions: Seattle on a Monday night? I don’t like any road team’s chances in that atmosphere, much less an 0-3 Lions team that seems lost on offense.
Last week: 10-6
Season to date: 28-20-1
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
