Offseason Beat: Who's Trending? Jump On Jimmy
Whether during the initial draft process or scanning the waiver wire once the action gets going, a good addition to your fantasy basketball team requires the use of foresight. Those who make reactionary pickups are seldom successful, and it takes far more than just a few prior game logs in order to correctly analyze a scenario.
With the NBA’s inaugural month officially here now that October has arrived, this Rotoworld column is designed to examine candidates trending in the right direction. We’re looking for players who can take advantage of a minutes and/or role increase that has yet to be delivered. Remember the owner in your league who added Jordan Clarkson before he broke out last season in Los Angeles? Let’s make sure that’s you this time around. For our first edition, we’ll focus on draft candidates with their arrow pointed firmly in the upward direction.
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1. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF Chicago Bulls
Jimmy Butler has been a slam-dunk first-round fantasy basketball since last season, but it was authored in cement when he signed his max contract to secure a long-term future in Chicago. Now with Derrick Rose (fractured orbital bone) on the shelf to begin training camp, Fred Hoiberg’s Bulls will waste no time ensuring that Butler is at the core of everything this team does. With his ability to be a playmaker, scorer and even stretch the floor, there is nothing Butler can’t do on a team that wants him to do it all. That’s a killer combination.
Establishing career-high marks in multiple categories, Butler finished last season doing his best Monta Ellis impression in terms of having it all. Averaging 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers on a rock solid 46.2 percent shooting, Butler is a star who truly contributes across the stat sheet. Between Butler’s belief he can handle the point and Hoiberg’s willingness to put him in a position to be a playmaker, there’s reason to belief Butler’s numbers can go up for the fifth straight season. If you’re trying to decide between taking someone like Butler vs. Carmelo Anthony, it’s really not a decision at all.
2. Terrence Jones, F Houston Rockets
Let’s just get this out of the way now: Last season was a frustrating one for Terrence Williams and those who had him on their fantasy basketball roster. Between a collapsed lung and a nerve issue in his leg/lower body, Jones was limited to just 33 games. But after Jones re-established himself and was able to play basketball with some continuity, a 23-game sample after the All-Star break provided a new context in which to judge him moving forward. Averaging 12.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 1.9 blocks on 54.4 percent shooting—including 36 percent from distance—Jones demonstrated why he was such a popular early-season target.
Flash forward to the present, and Jones once again finds a clear opportunity in front of him. Although the team around him is absolutely loaded with talent at every position, the power forward position remains Jones’ to claim emphatically. With just an injured Donatas Motiejunas (back surgery) behind him and a wet-behind-the-ears Montrezl Harrell after that, Jones can lay claim to his throne very early in the season. Given that he’s being drafted at a discount and will soon be sold at a premium, investing in TJ’s stock is a move I’d recommend making.
3. J.R. Smith, SG Cleveland Cavaliers
After signing a four-year, $40 million extension to remain with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the offseason, Iman Shumpert (wrist surgery) is unavailable for at least the next 12-14 weeks. Here is a look at the shooting guard depth chart in #TheLand after Shumpert: J.R. Smith, Austin Daye, Joe Harris, Jared Cunningham. If we want to include Mo Williams in that discussion for the sake of it, we certainly can, but it’s near impossible to imagine the Cavs deploying a backcourt of Williams with either Kyrie Irving or Matthew Dellavedova considering what it would do to the team defensively. No matter which road you take, the conclusion remains the same: Smith, after foolishly gambling on himself and losing in the process, has a wonderful opportunity to re-energize his stock around the league (again) with a solid start to the season. He’s going to be a big part of what the Cavs do by necessity for at least half.
After arriving in Cleveland in a trade with the New York Knicks as a Phil Jackson castoff, Smith averaged 12.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.8 3-pointers over 46 games. While his field goal percentage (42.5) was near identical to his career mark (42.4), that’s what comes with the territory when targeting a volume shooter. Between Cleveland’s lack of depth, two of their big three having their minutes managed coming off of surgical procedures and LeBron already talking about increasing his rest this year, Smith is certainly more appealing than he was just a week or two ago—but that still doesn’t mean you should overpay, and owners be wary of investing at all.
4. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Denver Nuggets
When the front office is responsible for drafting you, trades the incumbent starting point guard and anoints you the next in line all before you turn 20 years old, things are going pretty well to begin your NBA career. Enter Emmanuel Mudiay, my dark horse selection to win Rookie of the Year.
Saying all the right things about his willingness to learn and drawing praise from his veteran teammates before the first preseason game in the process, Mudiay looks like a player who is going to be an asset to fantasy teams right away. On a club that is desperate to make Mudiay its franchise face both on and off the floor, the Nuggets have set up an environment of success in which Mudiay should be allowed to thrive.
A pick-and-roll point guard standing at 6’5” and weighing in at right around 200 lbs., Mudiay is going to be a matchup nightmare from day one. Although the rookie is likely to struggle with his shot consistency during his first NBA season, you’re not drafting Mudiay on your team to be a 3-point marksman. We’re interested in dimes, defense and attacking the basket—all things this 19-year-old is more than capable of doing. Betting on both production and untapped potential, Mudiay will be one of those guys every owner who doesn’t take him on draft day will be wishing they did.
5. Tyreke Evans, PG New Orleans Pelicans
Calling this the “Year of Tyreke Evans” would be extremely aggressive and triple caffeinated considering New Orleans is A) Anthony Davis’ team and B) Davis just signed the largest contract extension in league history this offseason. But don’t let that temper your enthusiasm. Between Jrue Holiday’s (leg) medical restrictions, Alvin Gentry’s desire to play up-tempo and Evans’ ability to succeed when playing the point in that style, we could very well be getting shades of Rookie of the Year Tyreke again in 2015-16. For those who don’t remember or weren’t paying attention when Evans took it to the bank, Tyreke’s rookie season was filled with fantasy gold: 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals on 45.8 percent shooting.
As the starting small forward last season, a role he was never cast to play on any roster, Evans struggled mightily: 14.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.5 steals on a lousy 37.6 percent shooting. Starting in the backcourt, those numbers improved to 17.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks on 46.3 percent shooting. That’s obviously quite the difference, and with Gentry already saying that Evans will be spending most of his time playing point guard, Evans is set up nicely to be Davis’ PPIC—Pelican partner in crime.
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