NHL Fantasy Hockey: 15 predictions for the 2015-16 season
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy’s resident fantasy hockey ‘expert’ since 2009.
We all have our hunches. And of course, we let them influence our selections at the draft table. But that’s a good thing provided your hunch isn’t something silly like believing Braden Holtby and Pekka Rinne became elite fantasy goalies on their own – Barry Trotz as coach was just coincidence. And you don’t want to move a player up or down 10 rounds because of a hunch either. Hunches are just for tweaking your list as the draft happens.
If you want to review a few of my hunches, which were better than yours (just ignore the dumb ones), here is what I had in this column last year.
And now for this year’s batch…
Anton Khudobin will create a goalie controversy
At some point in the season Frederik Andersen will miss a couple of weeks with an injury and for one reason or another the Ducks won’t turn to John Gibson (maybe he’ll be hurt too). So Khudobin will get consecutive starts and – wouldn’t you know it – he flourishes behind a great team and a strong system. By the time Andersen gets back Khudobin will have won eight of nine. From that point forward, anytime Andersen stumbles a little there will be clamoring to start Khudobin. Last year I said something similar here about Khudobin and Cam Ward…but hey – that’s the Hurricanes, this is the Ducks. Khudobin is a talented goaltender and maybe that doesn’t show behind a 2014-15 Carolina team, it will sure as hell show behind a powerful Anaheim Ducks squad.
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Brett Connolly will surprise
An easy thing to say the day after he scores two goals, but I had this on my list prior to Wednesday’s contest against the Rangers. Connolly is a good, talented player who is ready to take the next step. He just had the misfortune of being on a Tampa Bay team with several other similar-aged and very skilled players (also known as the Triplets). So with other players clearly deserving more ice time and PP time than he, Connolly was left playing in a depth role. Then, when he arrived to join his new team the Bruins, he promptly broke his finger in the first practice. Without bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. Despite how long the 23-year-old has been around, this is actually going to be just his third full NHL season. The Bruins need an offensive catalyst, given David Krejci’s wonky hips and Matt Beleskey’s wonky everything, so why not Connolly?
Marco Dano falls short
I like Dano. I think he’s a talented kid with potential. But I’ve had two of my three drafts now and I’m in awe as to how highly he is thought of by my fellow poolies. They seem to think he’ll replace Brandon Saad in the top six and will somehow upgrade the production. In three years, Saad managed between 47 and 52 points. That’s the best-case scenario for Dano, who has always been more of a two-way guy than a scoring-line guy. With coach Joel Quenneville mixing and matching his lines, you’re going to see Andrew Shaw, Bryan Bickell, Artemy Panarin, Teuvo Teräväinen and Dano in there at different times. I’ll take the “under” if the over/under is 39.5.
Nathan MacKinnon rebounds nicely
After a pretty kick-ass rookie season, I had MacKinnon penciled in as the next big thing. Perhaps even top 80 points as a sophomore? But then the train wreck happened (also known as MacKinnon’s 2014-15 NHL season). Since then, poolies have been sustaining ankle and knee injuries in their rush to jump off the wagon. But I’m still on it. I never got off. He’s a great player and he’ll lead the Avs in scoring this season.
Ryan Johansen turns water into wine
We saw it last season when the young Johansen turned 40-point plugger Nick Foligno into a 73-point star. Today poolies – myself included – are downgrading Foligno because there’s no way a player with that skill set can repeat, right? But I just can’t shake this feeling that RyJo can do it again with Foligno – and he’ll take Brandon Saad to the next level too. Johansen has 125 points in his last 147 games (70-point pace).
Anton Slepyshev makes a splash
He may not even make the team. Or he may get sent down as soon as Jordan Eberle returns. But while most poolies are focused on Nail Yakupov or perhaps Teddy Purcell getting a top six spot during Eberle’s absence, I’m watching what they do with Slepyshev. He seems to want it more, and that goes a long way in this league. It’s his first year in North America and he’s going to rocket up the keeper-league charts with his production in the AHL and NHL this season.
The Kings miss the playoffs again
Los Angeles improved during the offseason, led by the upgrade of Justin Williams to Milan Lucic. With a healthy Tanner Pearson and a steady vet on the blue line (Christian Ehrhoff), the team is definitely better. But not good enough. I see other Western Conference teams improving even more than the Kings – and not enough teams are getting weaker.
Devan Dubnyk is the real deal
I’m seeing a lot of fantasy owners still hesitate with this guy. They don’t trust him. Statements like “partial season” and “unproven” are being used liberally. It’s okay. You can trust him. Contracts like the one he signed this summer will see to it that he succeeds. Because he’ll get unlimited chances to work through any problems. Just look no further than Cam Ward – no matter how bad that guy was, he was still thrown out there game after game. But in the Minnesota system there won’t be any such issues and Dubnyk will be elite in terms of fantasy numbers. You may think I’m nuts when I say this, and frankly I don’t care – if I own Henrik Lundqvist I trade him for Devan Dubnyk plus. Because the ‘plus’ is a nice bonus, and I think Dubnyk’s numbers will beat Henrik’s. Sure, I’m wrong sometimes. But last year I pumped Braden Holtby’s tires and the year before that I was all about Ben Bishop. I know my goalies.
Lars Eller finally emerges
Okay, this one is influenced by preseason. And yes, I suckered for it when Eller kicked off 2013-14 with five points in two games. But between his move to the wing and his chemistry with the Alexs – Galchenyuk and Semin – I think this is it. He’s also 26 which is often a year in which a talented player comes into his own. Eller had 30 points in 46 lockout-shortened games, lending credence to his ability to top 50 over a full campaign.
One of Tlusty or Palmieri become stars
Well…”stars” is a relative term, since we’re talking about the Devils. After all, this is a team that turns to Adam Henrique for offensive leadership. Kyle Palmieri is a goal scorer and the Devils don’t have many of them. So he’ll get all the ice time in the world and then some. Provided he can stay healthy (an issue with him), he’ll flirt with 50 points. Tlusty has shown offense in the past, for example the lockout year in which he got 38 points in 48 games. Like Palmieri, the Devils will lean on him heavily for offense. He’s 27 and in his prime.
It will be Anders Lee, not Brock Nelson, who takes the next big step
Nelson is 24 in a couple of weeks and Lee is 25. Nelson had 42 points last year and Lee had 41. But because Nelson started the 2014-15 campaign with 18 points in 18 games, poolies tend to favor him. But he’s going to be that steady player in that 55 to 60 range year in and year out. Whereas Lee has the tools to go him one better. So while Nelson is the safer player to own (so valuable to his team in all areas of the game), Lee has more upside and you’ll see that in the year ahead.
It finally works out for Sam Gagner
It’s a good situation in Philadelphia for Gagner. They need him and they need his production, but they don’t “need need” him. He’s not “the guy” or even “the backup guy”. He’s just a nice bonus who can play any forward position on any of the top three lines. With the pressure off and decent talent to pass to on an actual winning team, Gagner will set career highs this year. He’s also 26 years old and right in that 26-27 range I look for that extra level from talented players who have gone far too long without showing it.
Kris Letang finally has a healthy season
Is this a plea or a hunch? I own Letang in two of my three keepers (so there’s your disclosure). But isn’t the hard-luck Pittsburgh defenseman due? Defining 75 games as a “healthy season”, couldn’t Letang make it at least once more in his career? I’m having a hard time determining if this is a hunch or a hope, but I just can’t shake the feeling.
Stalock takes the starting job by February
I wrote this last year, too. But an injury at the worst possible time completely derailed any momentum Stalock had. The Sharks wanted him to steal the job from pending UFA Antti Niemi, but instead he missed the better part of a month and struggled to return to form. By the time he was back on track it was March but then he allowed 15 goals in his last seven games. Meanwhile, Martin Jones was just as promising in 2013-14…and just as bad in 2014-15. So these two will be back and forth in the first half, but my hunch is that Stalock eventually runs with it.
Vladimir Tarasenko leads the league in scoring at some point in March
He may not win the Art Ross. In fact, I don’t think he will. But Tarasenko will be among three or four other players in contention for the scoring lead and at some point in March he will be on top. I’d tell you which exact day but my crystal ball is dirty.
Hey! Pick up Dobber’s 10th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide . And while you’re in a charitable mood, follow Dobber on Twitter @DobberHockey for more fantasy hockey tidbits.
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