The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 4
Three weeks are in the books as we reach the bye week season, so make sure no Patriots or Titans are in your lineups this week. We’re starting to see tangible trends developing and some early noise start to fall to the small sample size wayside.
As usual, this post isn’t intended to be a linear start/sit guide, so use proper context on the players mentioned in the personal player section. As the author, I would highlight that the player section is simply the vehicle to provide 125-plus total facts on the games and the game by game data splits tables. Those two sections have a lot more actionable value when applied properly with your own initial thoughts on games and lineup situations, so take matters into your own hands where you can. All lines are taken from BetUs. Without further hindrance, let’s dive into the Week 4 games.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, fantasy news columns, IDP, injury analysis, dynasty and much more, check out the Rotoworld Season Pass.
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
| Ravens | @ | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 |
| 23 | Team O/U | 20.5 |
| 64.7 | Plays/Gm | 58.3 |
| 66.7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 |
| 34.0% | Rush % | 41.1% |
| 66.0% | Pass % | 58.9% |
| 37.5% | Opp. Rush % | 38.6% |
| 62.5% | Opp. Pass % | 61.4% |
- Le’Veon Bell has five or more receptions in his past three games against Baltimore.
- In Bell’s first game back; he played 95.2 percent (60) of the offensive snaps, the highest percentage any back played for their team this past week.
- Baltimore has allowed just two runs of 10 or more yards, fewest on the season. They allowed the third-fewest all of 2014.
- Of the 42 quarterbacks that attempted at least 100 passes last seasons, Mike Vick had the lowest completion percentage at 52.9 percent (64-121) and lowest adjusted yards per attempt at 4.7 yards.
- Joe Flacco threw multiple touchdowns in all three meetings against the Steelers last season.
- With Crockett Gillmore dealing with a calf injury, Maxx Williams played 45 snaps and has seen seven targets.
- Steve Smith has been targeted on 36.5 percent of his routes, the second-highest in the league behind Julio Jones (38.4 percent). The next highest on Baltimore is Gillmore at 16.9 percent of his routes.
- The past two weeks have been the first time in Smith’s career that he’s had back-to-back games with double-digit receptions.
- Justin Forsett carried 33 times for 134 yards with no scores in the three meetings between these teams a year ago.
- The Ravens have allowed just 30 receiving yards to tight ends this season, fewest in the league.
Trust: Joe Flacco (even on Thursday Night and post-Nick Foles debacle, I’m not running away from targeting the Steelers’ pass defense weekly), Steve Smith (target vacuum by necessity against a subpar back end), Antonio Brown (I have no clue what type of Mike Vick we’ll see, but Pittsburgh will get touches for Brown)
Bust: Heath Miller, Justin Forsett (woes date back to late last season and not catching passes or seeing goal line opportunities), Mike Vick (played poorly in a far inferior environment a year ago, so that may not matter, but on a short week I don’t see how you roll him out in lineups)
Reasonable Return: Le’Veon Bell (expecting limited rushing stats, but always has a floor with his receiving ability), Crockett Gillmore (if he’s ready to go on a short week, otherwise swap in Maxx Williams), Kamar Aiken (Baltimore will need to attack Pittsburgh’s secondary and Smith will be drawing plenty of attention)
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New York (AFC) vs. Miami
| Jets | @ | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 |
| 21.5 | Team O/U | 20 |
| 65.7 | Plays/Gm | 62.7 |
| 64.0 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.0 |
| 40.1% | Rush % | 28.7% |
| 59.9% | Pass % | 71.3% |
| 47.4% | Opp. Rush % | 52.5% |
| 52.6% | Opp. Pass % | 47.5% |
- Ryan Tannehill has just one top-15 scoring week in five complete games facing the Jets.
- Rishard Matthews ranks fifth in yards per targets (11.4 yards) and fourth in points per target (2.62).
- Jarvis Landry is just one of four receivers to have eight receptions in every game so far, joining Julian Edelman, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown.
- Miami ranks 30th in rushing points per attempt at .404 points. The Jets are allowing the second fewest rushing points per attempt at .330 points.
- The Jets are allowing just .214 points per play, lowest mark in the league.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick is 9-30 for 208 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions on passes 15 or more yards in the air.
- Fitzpatrick’s fantasy weeks so far: QB20, QB21, QB20.
Trust: Brandon Marshall (outside of Brent Grimes, this Miami secondary is a weekly target)
Bust: Lamar Miller (there are little to no positive signs here for Miller turning it around before the bye), Ryan Tannehill, Rishard Matthews (volume has been there and could be again, but this matchup is rough)
Reasonable Return: Jarvis Landry (you know where the floor is here), Chris Ivory (Miami’s front has woefully underperformed), Eric Decker (if he’s back, he returns in a good spot), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jordan Cameron (the receivers should struggle in this one against the Jets corners, forcing action his way)
New York (NFC) vs. Buffalo
| Giants | @ | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 |
| 20 | Team O/U | 27 |
| 63.0 | Plays/Gm | 61.0 |
| 69.3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 71.7 |
| 41.3% | Rush % | 53.0% |
| 58.7% | Pass % | 47.0% |
| 31.3% | Opp. Rush % | 24.2% |
| 68.8% | Opp. Pass % | 75.8% |
- Through three games, just 14 of the Giants 78 (17.9%) rush attempts have gone for over five yards. Eli Manning has two of those and Dwayne Harris has one.
- Buffalo sees just 17.3 rush attempts per game, lowest in the league.
- 81.5 percent of the yards against the Bills have been through the air, second-highest split towards passing in the league.
- The Giants have just one turnover on 30 possessions (three percent), lowest percentage in the league.
- The Giants are tied for sixth in the league with 11 red zone trips, but are last in the league in red zone touchdown rate (27.3 percent), scoring just three touchdowns.
- The Bills are third in the league in points per play (.546), but 30th in red zone opportunities per game at 2.0.
- They have seven touchdowns outside of the red zone, which leads the league. They had just nine such scoring plays all of 2014.
- Tyrod Taylor has completed 85.2 percent (51 of 62) of his throws within 15 yards, the highest completion percentage of any quarterback with 40 or more such attempts.
- Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass once every 11.1 pass attempts, which is third in the league only behind Carson Palmer (9.8 attempts) and Aaron Rodgers (9.1).
- Percy Harvin leads all wide receivers in catch rate at 88.9 percent (16 of 18 targets) and has four or more receptions in three consecutive games for the first time since 2011.
- Karlos Williams leads all running backs with at least 20 carries in yards per attempt (7.8), and rushing fantasy points per attempt (1.53).
- New York is allowing 39.8 yards per opponent’s drive, highest in the league.
Trust: Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams, Charles Clay (usage growing and the Giants have allowed the TE5, TE12 and TE6 through three weeks)
Bust: Eli Manning (has been playing his best football over the past year plus, but on the road in a tough spot here), Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams, Larry Donnell, Rueben Randle (finally was involved and even maximized those opportunities, but not expecting a rollover)
Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham (expecting the Giants to be limited, but you’re not running away from him), Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins (this is a great spot for the Bills’ offense altogether, but the volume isn’t here for high ceiling as I’d prefer to play Taylor over his targets), Shane Vereen (no receptions a week ago, but the script is expected to be much different this week)
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