Playoff Races: Blue Jays can clinch AL East
Counting Wednesday, we’ve got five days of regular season left, so matters are being settled without mercy. We already know quite a bit, insofar as who’s headed to the postseason is concerned, but we don’t know everything. As for those remaining spots, let’s see what might be sorted out on Wednesday.
The playoff chances are via our SportsLine Projection Model, and the “magic number” is the combined number of wins by the team ahead and losses by the team behind before a clinch can happen.
[NOTE: Playoff odds are rounded to the hundredth, so “100 percent” when it’s not clinched means it’s 99.95 percent or more]
AL East
The Blue Jays will clinch the AL East title — their first since 1993 — with a win over the Orioles (they play a doubleheader, so they get two shots) or a Yankees loss to the Red Sox. Alternatively, the Jays can also clinch by simply taking both ends of that doubleheader.
AL Central
The Royals have already clinched the division title. They presently trail the Blue Jays by 1 1/2 games for top overall seed in the American League. If that holds, then the Royals would be paired against the AL West winner in the Division Series.
AL West
As of Wednesday morning, the Rangers lead the Angels by 2.0 games and the Astros by 2.5 games. That comes to a magic number of four for Texas, so no clinch is possible today. The Rangers end the regular season with a potentially huge four-game series against those Angels that starts on Thursday.
AL wild card
The Angels have a 1/2-game lead over the Astros and a 1 1/2-game lead over the Twins. The Sportsline Projection Model still likes the Astros, as it gives Houston a 46.9 percent chance of winning the second AL wild card versus 25.0 percent for the Angels and 8.2 percent for the Twins.
As for the Yankees, they’re occupying the top wild card spot and are 3.0 games clear of the Angels. As such — and given their long odds in the AL East — the Yankees are almost certain to host the AL wild card game on Oct. 6. The Yankees can clinch a postseason berth with a win over Boston and a Twins loss to the Indians (they play a doubleheader) and a Rangers loss to the Tigers or an Angels loss to Oakland.
On the elimination front, the Indians can be eliminated from playoff contention by losing both ends of that doubleheader against the Twins or by losing one in tandem with an Angels win over the Athletics.
NL East
The Mets have already clinched and lead the Dodgers by one game in the race for No. 2 seed in the NL (and, thus, the right to have home field advantage in the Division Series round).
NL Central
The Cardinals play a doubleheader against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and if they win one of those games, then they clinch the division for a third straight season. They also need only one more win for 100 on the year. Alternatively, if the Pirates were to sweep the doubleheader, they’d enter the final series of the regular season 2.0 games back of St. Louis. All that said, Sportsline, quite understandably, gives the Cardinals a 98.2 percent chance of winning the division.
NL West
The Dodgers have clinched the division. As noted above, they’re presently in line to open the Division series in New York and play a potential deciding Game 5 there, as well.
NL wild card
The Cubs are locked in as the No. 2 wild card, and the Pirates will almost certainly be the host team as the No. 1 wild card. A Cardinals win in Pittsburgh on Wednesday locks this in as the match-up.
Will the Jays have cause for another celebration on Wednesday? (USATSI)
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