The Line: TCU (-15)

TCU can score on anyone, and anyone can score on Texas. The Horned Frogs will hang a big, crooked number on the scoreboard.

But that’s not the issue. The issue is whether they can get enough defensive stops to cover a 15-point spread. Freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard has revitalized Texas’ offense, leading the Longhorns to close losses against Cal and Oklahoma State, and in TCU he faces the weakest defense, statistically, of his young career.

The Horned Frogs rank No. 72 in Football Outsiders’ defensive S&P+ ratings, behind such stalwarts as UConn, Louisiana-Monroe and Hawaii. Considering the amount of players they have lost, it’s hard to see how things will improve. This isn’t a schematic issue or a preparation issue; it’s a talent, depth and health issue.

That’s something you can’t fix in the film room.

The Pick: Texas (+15)

The Line: West Virginia (+7)

We still don’t know much about Dana Holgorsen’s team, and the confusion in the advanced stats reflects that.

Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings are composed of two separate systems: the FEI ratings and S&P+ ratings. The first ranks West Virginia down at No. 37 in the country, but the second ranks it up at No. 3.

Because of that, my frank advice for this game would be to stay away. It’s risky to bet West Virginia as if it’s a top-40 team when it might really be a top-five team, and it’s just as risky to bet West Virginia as if it’s a top-five team when it might really be a top-40 team.

But since I have to pick, I’ll lean toward the Mountaineers. They’ve kept things close in all three meetings with the Sooners since joining the Big 12, and even though they’ve lost all three (and twice by more than seven points), I think they’ll continue that trend.

They also went 4-1 against the spread as an underdog last season, while Oklahoma went 2-4 as a home favorite. Plus I like backing road dogs who covered as home favorites the week prior, as West Virginia did in decisive fashion against Maryland, 45-6.

The Pick: West Virginia (+7)

The Line: Northwestern (-5)

It failed for me last weekend, when I backed Missouri over Kentucky, but this game still satisfies a betting system I believe in: road underdogs in games with totals under 48.5.

According to Sports Insights, such teams went 681-562 against the spread between 2005 and 2014, and one ugly loss by the Tigers won’t distract me from a much bigger sample.

Both of these teams have great defenses, but their offenses—how do I put this kindly?—belong here in the Big Ten noon slot. The over/under is only 40 points, which is fair given what both teams have showed.

Realistic final scores such as 14-10, 17-13, 17-14, 20-17 and even (if we want to get crazy!) 21-17 would all net the Gophers a cover, even if they lose outright.

The Pick: Minnesota (+5)

The Line: Baylor (-15)

They’ve branded this game the Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Shootout, but we all know it’s really the BUTT Bowl.

Fortunately, the word the acronyms on these two teams’ helmets spell does not describe the state of their offenses. Au contraire, these are the two best offenses in college football, per Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings, where Baylor ranks No. 1 and Texas Tech ranks No. 2.

Considering the state of each defense on those rankings—Baylor at No. 94, Texas Tech at No. 118—this should be another Big 12 shootout. Last year these teams scored 94 combined points in a 48-46 Baylor win, and that was their lowest combined total since 2010.

As for the pick, I’ll keep things simple: Always take the points in a shootout. Baylor’s No. 1 offense will carve holes in Texas Tech’s No. 118 defense, but Texas Tech’s No. 2 offense will do the same to Baylor’s No. 94 defense. Even if the Bears score a touchdown every time they touch the ball, three stops might be asking too much.

The Pick: Texas Tech (+15)

Note: For now that stands despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ knee injury. I like the Red Raiders better if he plays, but Davis Webb is one of the best backup QBs in the country. Still, if Mahomes is deemed unhealthy and the line makes a resulting shift, I will come back and edit to take Tech plus the new number of points.

The Line: Georgia (-2)

The stat you’ll hear all week is that Alabama has been favored in 72 consecutive games. This is its first time catching points since the 2009 SEC Championship Game against Florida, which the Crimson Tide won 32-13.

More than that, this is Alabama’s first time as a road underdog since 2008 against Georgia—its last trip Between the Hedges—when it caught six points against the Matthew Stafford/Knowshon Moreno Bulldogs. Georgia made a big deal about that matchup, infamously declaring it a “Blackout” before getting run off the field and trailing 31-0 at halftime.

How much has changed in the interim? Apparently a lot. Enough that we think Alabama should catch more points in Athens. Enough that we’ll ignore how Alabama ranks No. 1 in the country in F/+, FEI and S&P+. Enough that we’ll back a quarterback, Greyson Lambert, who lost his starting job at Virginia to the guy who just lost 56-14 at home to Boise State

Is that a little oversimple? Sort of. But why make this more complicated than necessary? Georgia needs to run to be successful, and nobody can run on Alabama. One loss to Ole Miss doesn’t change that. Lambert can’t beat this defense with his arm.

The Pick: Alabama (+2)

The Line: Oklahoma State (-8)

Oklahoma State is ranked No. 20 in the country, but it’s not one of the 20 best teams. It’s probably not even one of the 30 best teams. The S&P+ ratings have the Cowboys down at No. 57!

Any way you swing it, Mike Gundy’s team is overranked, and with overranked teams come inflated lines. The Cowboys have no business laying eight points against Kansas State, even if they beat the two teams’ common opponent (UTSA) more thoroughly.

Per SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, the proprietor of the S&P+ ratings, Oklahoma State has played three games below the 70th percentile nationally this season. All three of those performances—at Central Michigan, vs. Central Arkansas, at Texas—would have been the Wildcats’ worst of the year.

Also of note: The FEI projections have Kansas State winning outright, 26-25. Compared with the eight-point spread, that gives the Wildcats a nine-point disparity. Road underdogs with disparities between four and nine points have gone 21-6-1 against the spread this season.

Plus, I mean…Bill Snyder.

The Pick: Kansas State (+8)

The Line: Ole Miss (-7)

According to the FEI projections, Ole Miss should win this game by 18 points, 33-15. Compared with the seven-point spread, that gives the Rebels an 11-point disparity.

So far this season, only six road favorites have enjoyed a disparity of 10 or more points. Here is how they fared against the spread:

It’s not always pretty, but it works. The chasm between the favorite and the underdog gives the favorite some margin for error, wiggle room to struggle for two quarters and still cover.

That’s how I see this game going: along the same lines of last week’s Tennessee at Florida game, only without the boneheaded collapse.

The Pick: Ole Miss (-7)

The Line: Texas A&M (-7)

I broke this down in depth in my complete game preview, but I like how Mississippi State matches up with Texas A&M’s offense.

The Bulldogs’ biggest strength is pressuring the quarterback, especially on standard downs, when they rank No. 3 in the country in adjusted sack rate. Texas A&M has struggled to protect Kyle Allen, especially on standard downs, when it ranks No. 122 in adjusted sack rate.

The way to beat Mississippi State is with explosive plays on passing downs. Texas A&M has been explosive on standard downs (No. 8 in the country in isolated points per Play) but less so on passing downs (No. 109), which bodes well for the Bulldogs as they try to hide their weakness. They should hold the Aggies under 30 points.

Will that be enough to win outright? I’m not sure. I don’t love how their offense matches up with Texas A&M’s defense. Senior quarterback Dak Prescott will make enough to plays to post a respectable number, but there won’t be much room for him to operate.

Aggies win, Bulldogs cover.

The Pick: Mississippi State (+7)

The Line: UCLA (-13)

It’s tempting to fade the public and back Arizona State, which can’t possibly be as bad as it looked last week against USC.

…Or so the thinking goes.

But what if it really is? What if the Sun Devils really are as bad as they looked against USC? They’re winless against the spread so far this season, and they’ve frankly gotten worse each week.

They’ve also never played well as underdogs. Since Todd Graham arrived in 2012, they’re 3-9 against the spread when catching points. This is more than they’re used to catching, but there’s a reason for that. The offense has been a wild disappointment, and the whole of the defense remains less than the sum of the parts.

Maybe I’ll regret this, but I can’t pick the underdog in every high-profile game, and I love how the Bruins have been playing. There’s letdown potential after an emotional win at Arizona, but with nothing to look ahead to except a bye week, Jim Mora Jr. should have his team focused.

The Pick: UCLA (-13)

The Line: PK

Clemson is a team I backed hard before the season. Notre Dame is a team I’ve backed hard during the season. This isn’t exactly Sophie’s Choice, but I hate the thought of picking against either.

Ultimately, I give a slight lean to Clemson, if only because I think this line is reactionary. The Tigers looked mediocre in their only game on national TV, a 20-17 win at Louisville that dropped the Cardinals to 0-3, and suddenly people think they’re overrated. Suddenly they think sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson is all hype.

I’m not sure that’s the takeaway from a hard-fought win in Papa John’s Stadium. Louisville is better than its record, especially on defense, and played that game with everything it had. It was pressed into a corner, back against the wall, knowing it needed a win—an outright win; not a near-win or a moral victory—to keep its season on track.

Clemson beat it anyway.

That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have issues, but with 16 days to prepare for the Irish at home, I trust head coach Dabo Swinney to knock his team into shape. Notre Dame is awesome and could easily pull off the road win; this just might be where injuries catch up with it.

The Pick: Clemson (PK)

Purdue at No. 2 Michigan State (-22.5)

I picked against Michigan State in Weeks 1-3, and all three times I came out a winner. Last week I tried to get cute, saying the Spartans were “due for a big game,” and came out a loser because of it. Purdue is roughly as good as Central Michigan, which trailed MSU by seven after three quarters last weekend. The Boilermakers went one step further against MSU last season, trailing by seven until the final 90 seconds. I’m back to fading Sparty until they prove they can cover a game.

The Pick: Purdue (+22.5)

Iowa at No. 19 Wisconsin (-7)

We don’t know much for sure about either of these teams, save that Wisconsin has an awesome defense. The Badgers have allowed just three points in their past three games, and they looked strong in the first half against Alabama. I want to believe in Iowa, which has started 4-0 for the first time since 2009, but recent history has made me wise to that. This is a rare case where I’d love to be wrong—the season is more fun when Iowa is good, for some perverse reason—but Wisconsin is the much safer play.

The Pick: Wisconsin (-7)

No. 1 Ohio State (-21) at Indiana 

This game reminds me of Ohio State at Maryland last season, and also of Florida State at Maryland two years ago. Indiana is riding high after a soft early schedule, playing well enough that its fans are thinking, “maybe—just maybe—we can do this!” But they can’t. And they can’t by an overwhelming margin. This is where Ohio State gets rolling.

The Pick: Ohio State (-21)

No. 11 Florida State (-19.5) at Wake Forest

This line almost perfectly resembles Georgia at Vanderbilt in Week 2. The Bulldogs were 20.5-point road favorites, and the FEI projections said they would win by 26; Florida State is a 19.5-point road favorite, and the FEI projections say it will win by 25. Georgia failed to cover that game, but that had more to do with Vanderbilt, which has since also covered against Ole Miss, than UGA. Florida State performs well off a bye (3-1 ATS since 2013) and should wax an inferior team.

The Pick: Florida State (-19.5)

Washington State at No. 24 California (-18)

I love that Cal is playing well and finally earning respect. Sonny Dykes is a good head coach, Jared Goff is the best quarterback in America, and frankly it’s just a fun group to watch. But 18 points seems steep against a Washington State team that last year threw for 734 yards against the Bears. Always take the points in a shootout.

The Pick: Washington State (+18)

Eastern Michigan at No. 8 LSU (-44.5)

Eastern Michigan ranks last in the country in run defense, allowing 373 yards per game. Army rushed for 556 yards on 71 carries (7.8 YPC) against the Eagles last weekend, just one week after averaging 3.4 yards per carry against UConn. That’s what Leonard Fournette will go up against in Week 5. Let’s not overthink it from there.

The Pick: LSU (-44.5)

No. 22 Michigan (-15.5) at Maryland

Maryland might be the worst team in the Big Ten. Rutgers is Rutgers…but have you seen this team play? The Terps will give their best effort in a rare home night game against a big-name opponent, but their best effort isn’t really much. Michigan might be in a letdown spot after steamrolling BYU, but the Wolverines are new enough to winning that they should never take a road game for granted.

The Pick: Michigan (-15.5)

Week 4 Record: 9-7-1 (55.9%)

Overall Record: 34-34-2 (50.0%)

Note: There is no early line for Arizona at No. 18 Stanford. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon is a game-time decision, and most books won’t post a number until they learn more about his injury.

Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press Poll. All Week 5 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All uncited advanced stats via Football Study Hall.