What We Learned: Breaking down NHL goalie controversies
(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)
Every year, it seems as though there are at least a few controversies about which teams should start which goalies and why.
As Travis Yost noted early last week, there is just such an issue bubbling in Calgary, because Karri Ramo and Joni Ortio are not good enough and too unproven, respectively, to actually wrest the “starter” mantle from Jonas Hiller in any fair or reasonable world.
But that hasn’t stopped speculation about it.
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As early as a few months ago, people were saying the Flames should perhaps be looking to trade Hiller, because a Ramo/Ortio battery could probably deliver similar results. That’s not actually true, of course – though the Flames should be looking to sell high on veteran roster players with affordable contracts as they continue this rebuild – but it doesn’t stop the speculation, because that’s hockey.
There might also be a bit of a goaltending controversy in a few other places around the league. Vancouver seems an easy one to point to — especially given that franchise’s history of doing nothing to prevent these controversies from happening — as does Carolina, Detroit, and possibly Anaheim, to name a few off the top of my head. Toronto? Sure. Ottawa? It’s possible. Dallas has pretty effectively lined itself up for one when it didn’t need to. Maybe you even throw Winnipeg into the mix.
That’s a lot of potential controversies! But whether they actually should be controversies at all is often overstated. Because of course they shouldn’t be.
The best tool we have to evaluate goaltender performance — i.e. the aspect of the game over which they have the most statistical control — is 5-on-5 save percentage. These numbers often don’t differ too widely from power play and shorthanded save percentage, but these latter situational statistics are a little too given to wild swings of bad luck because, a) they take place over maybe 300-350 combined minutes in an entire season, and b) they don’t actually face that many shots over those minutes. At least, not enough that you can reliably say they’re repeatable from one year to the next; you often see decent-sized swings for most goalies in these stats.
But 5-on-5 save percentage tends to be a little more hard-and-fast from one year to the next. That’s not to say they can’t balloon or take a huge step back in any given season, but it’s less common than overall or special teams save percentages when it comes to fluctuations like that.
And because of this, we usually get a pretty good idea of what a goalie “is” over time. Again, this doesn’t rule out things like Ondrej Pavelec going .920 in overall save percentage last season when his previous career average was .906, but we can use even-strength numbers to reasonably assume that the .920 was very much out of line with what he’s probably going to do this season.
With all that in mind, it’s usually not hard to break down who should and should not be getting the bulk of the games for a given team that is going through such a “controversy” this year or in any other. There’s often a pretty big separation in career or recent 5-on-5 save percentages between starter and backup in this league. Last year, for example, the average gap between starters (guys who played at least 50 games) and regular backups (who played at least 14 but fewer than 30). Starters had an average save percentage of .925, while backups had an average save percentage of a little less than .920.
That number obviously doesn’t include guys in 1a/1b scenarios, or guys who were hurt for decent-enough portions of the year that they didn’t fall into either category (like Henrik Lundqvist or Craig Anderson). We’ll get to them in a minute.
But when you break down the difference between starter and backup by team, you start to see why the No. 1 guy has his job; they tend to be above the league average (.923) as you might expect, and their backups tend to be well below it. Which is fine for most backups because you’re really only the roster to make sure the big guy gets the night off every once in a while, and your team doesn’t give up too many goals while you’re in the crease.
Sometimes, backups provide the added benefit of being nearly as good, or sometimes even better, in this regard. But as with any stat, you have to look at context as well. Most backups will be playing worse teams than starters, so their numbers could occasionally be more inflated. The difference between Marc-Andre Fleury’s .926 and Thomas Greiss’s .922 last year, for example, is minimal. It’s an extra goal against every nine or 10 games. Not that Greiss could necessarily keep that up if their roles were reversed, but you see the point.
But with all this in mind, teams do need to examine whether they have a goalie controversy on their hands, and whether they actually should. Carolina — because this is apparently Eddie Lack’s fate — seems doomed to be stuck platooning Lack with Cam Ward, out of deference to what Ward was, and what he gets paid.
If this were a question of actual quality, it wouldn’t even be a discussion. Ward has been trending down for some time now, to the point that he actively costs his team games, and Lack is probably league average or a little better. If Carolina is serious about competing, it makes Ward the highest-paid backup in the league without a thought. There’s no room for sentimentality here. You don’t even have to dig too deeply into the numbers to understand fundamentally what should be done.
(This was also true a few years ago of another former Vancouver goalie: Cory Schneider. Remember the preposterous song and dance the Devils put themselves through trying to justify giving 68-year-old Martin Brodeur regular starts over one of the best goalies in the league?)
And Detroit’s controversy is already ramping up for a similar reason: Jimmy Howard is well-paid and well-respected, but played himself out of a job last year and gave way to Petr Mrazek. Howard’s career numbers dictate he should probably get a second chance, but the leash might need to be short not because he’s starting to lose his fastball, but because it’s possible Mrazek is just better. If that’s the case, there’s no controversy. You start the guy who is better than the other guy.
Anaheim will probably also have a bit of a “too many cooks” situation in goal, as Frederik Andersen (not great), Anton Khudobin (pretty decent career backup coming off a not-good year on a not-good Carolina team), and John Gibson (über prospect with a big contract who put up strong numbers last year) make for a crowded crease. But if the question even arises as to who should be the No. 1 after a while — it’s probably Gibson, right? — Andersen really ought not get too much longer a look than is prudent. For what reason? Aren’t the Ducks competing for a Cup this year?
That’s not to say goalie controversies aren’t, occasionally, legitimate. But it’s not as common as people would have you believe.
Vancouver, too, is in this situation. Ryan Miller is highly paid, a former Vezina winner, and possibly on the back nine for his career. Jim Benning chose Jacob Markstrom as the Future Backup and shipped out Lack, but it’s entirely possible that Markstrom puts up strong numbers at the NHL level this year (he went .934 overall in the AHL last year). If Miller falters out of the gate and Markstrom impresses, that’s got all the makings of another controversy.
Dallas is did a hell of a dumb thing and put itself in this situation, because Kari Lehtonen’s poor season scared the hell out of Jim Nill. This one is actually fascinating, because Lehtonen’s 5-on-5 save percentage with Dallas from 2010, when he became the full-fledged starter, to before the start of last season was a very-good .926. Again, one season of .914 hockey, while atrocious, doesn’t necessarily portend additional seasons of .914 hockey. Meanwhile, Antti Niemi’s 5-on-5 save percentage since he became a starter back in 2010 is .925, more or less the same. This is a controversy only inso far as it was self-created, but there are certainly worse things in the world than having two goalies who are a smidge above league-average.
This is just the preseason, but the fact that we’re already focused on so many potential issues here seems strange. People really like goalie controversies, I guess. And more will arise as the season goes on, as some guys do the thing goalies sometimes do where they’re either white-hot or hot garbage for a stretch of 15 games. But if you take the long view of things, and keep what we know of goalies’ peaks in mind, you’re usually going to get a pretty good idea of how things “should be.”
That’s not always how they are, though. Teams often do the exact wrong thing here, and create weird expectations as a result. Which is why these controversies exist in the first place.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: By definition, finding new roles for new players is literally what the Ducks have to do. They can’t find old roles for new players, unless they trade Carl Hagelin back to the Rangers or something.
Arizona Coyotes: There’s like a 0 percent chance Anthony Duclair doesn’t make this roster, right? Like, definitely happens, yeah?
Boston Bruins: People actually believe Zac Rinaldo will be a meaningful contributor to the Bruins. The preseason is a magical time.
Buffalo Sabres: I have a lot of time for talk about Evan Rodrigues having a lengthy pro career, but all this kind of talk seems a little overblown.
Calgary Flames: Micheal Ferland is one of those guys who probably isn’t very good but for whatever reason seems to delight in murdering one team on a consistent basis. That team for him seems like it’ll be the Canucks. Man, he hates those guys.
Carolina Hurricanes: This is why Bill Peters gets the big bucks, folks.
Chicago Blackhawks: It’s pretty easy to stay focused with your head in the sand. Not a lot else going on under there.
Colorado Avalanche: Jarome Iginla is day-to-day with a hip injury. Happens to lots of 62-year-olds, though.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Concerns about Oleg Yevenko’s skating ability? You don’t say. Actual, fast NHL players will spin him like a turbo-charged carousel.
Dallas Stars: The Stars have a lot of question marks in net apparently. Have you seen this? Have you heard about this?
Detroit Red Wings: This is easily the most worrisome headline of the preseason. I’m extremely worried that Johan Franzen is going to give himself a serious, career-ending, life-altering concussion.
Edmonton Oilers: The fact that Anders Nilsson is even in contention for the backup job this season doesn’t speak very well of poor Ben Scrivens’ standing in the organization.
Florida Panthers: One of the truly great things about early training camp cuts is when if you are a hardcore hockey person, you’re getting names you have never heard in your entire life. Brent Regner? That has to be made up.
Los Angeles Kings: As with everything else, Milan Lucic knows the exact numbers of when the Kings play the Bruins. He also would “love to stay” in the West. We’ll see how he feels by February, when he’s played 40-some games against Western Conference juggernauts.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild basically have their team figured out at this point, save for one or two bottom-of-the-roster battles. Most teams are in the same boat, of course, but no one else is really making cuts on this level.
Montreal Canadiens: Ah, the next great, “This guy who isn’t that good is gonna make the team!” storyline. Not Mike Condon, Tomas Fleischmann. But here’s the thing: Fleischmann is Actually Good and routinely undervalued in the NHL. So if the Habs are smart, they’ll actually use. That’s a big if.
Nashville Predators: Barrett Jackman is close to returning. I don’t know whether that’s good news, but I have a guess.
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New Jersey Devils: If this trade happens, the Leafs have a new Clarkson contract on their hands. Full stop.
New York Islanders: Islanders fans would much rather have tiles falling on their heads. (P.S. A Grumbly Islanders Fans story that starts with anecdotes about the early 1980s? That’s a dollar in the jar.)
New York Rangers: The Rangers may have the best six-D unit in the league? Hmmm. No. Nope. Nah.
Ottawa Senators: This is great news for Matt O’Connor.
Philadelphia Flyers: Okay, so what about the previous four years worth of injuries?
Pittsburgh Penguins: Well, calling this young D corps “x-factors” is a nice way of putting it.
San Jose Sharks: Brent Burns and Paul Martin look to be the Sharks’ top pairing this season That has the potential to be either really good or really ugly.
St. Louis Blues: Don’t people tend to say that Alex Pietrangelo is an elite defenseman? Now we have to say it about Kevin Shattenkirk too? People love giving the Blues too much credit, I guess.
Tampa Bay Lightning: This is why blocking shots in games that don’t matter is dumb.
Toronto Maple Leafs: So do regular teams.
Vancouver Canucks: All blessings to the Sedins. The hockey world loves you!
Washington Capitals: This sort of thing is going to be fascinating to watch, but one suspects that if you’re trying to play defense in 3-on-3 overtime this year, you’re going to end up losing a lot of extra points.
Winnipeg Jets: They might put Alex Burmistrov on a line with Bryan Little and Andrew Ladd. Welcome back.
Gold Star Award
Shout out to Brent Seabrook for a contract that literally no one deserves: Paid huge dollars until he’s 39. What a life.
Minus of the Weekend
Would anyone on earth be surprised about a huge cocaine problem in the NHL at this point? Like if it were revealed, I think we’d all say, “Well, yes, of course,” and go about our business.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User “moltisanti” is off the beaten path here.
To Winnipeg:
Loui Eriksson
Alexander Khokhlachev
Zach Trotman
2016 2nd round pick
For
To Boston:
Dustin Byfuglien
Signoff
Hey, yeah. We met at that wedding earlier today.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All stats via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)
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