Justin Forsett makes appearance on All-Bust Fantasy Lineup for Week 3
Among other novelties in this week’s All-Bust lineup, we have our first repeat appearance of 2015, the worst fantasy output of any defense/special teams this season and one Cowboy who sorely misses Tony Romo.
Let’s dive into a week that on the surface featured few upsets, yet yielded plenty of surprising individual performances (Devonta Freeman, anyone?).
A reminder on the selection process: I calculate the difference between the projected Yahoo point totals and the actual outputs of each player. The guys with the worst sums wind up here, with their disappointing performances illustrated by PointAfter visualizations.
Notes: All projected point totals were pulled Sunday morning from Yahoo’s standard scoring system. Players who were injured on Sunday weren’t considered. List will be updated after Monday night game as warranted.
[Week 3’s perfect fantasy lineup: Top scorers at each position]
QB: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
Projected points (position rank): 16.8 (16th)
Actual points (position rank): 3.7 (31st)
I’m as shocked as you are that Colin Kaepernick isn’t in this spot after he only passed for 67 yards and threw four picks, both career worsts, in San Francisco’s embarrassing 47-7 dismantling in Arizona. But at least Kaepernick’s rushing touchdown bumped him up to 9.3 points on the day.
Bridgewater’s only rushing attempt, meanwhile, went for negative yardage, and he only passed for 121 yards while taking a back seat to Adrian Peterson against San Diego.
Peterson romped for 126 yards on 20 carries against the Chargers, and now leads the league in both carries and rushing yards per game (he’s represented by the dot closest to the upper right corner of the below graph). As long as that’s true, Bridgewater’s fantasy value is limited. Even in two-QB leagues, he’s a borderline option.
Note: You can hover over each dot to see the player it corresponds to.
RB1: Justin Forsett, Ravens
Projected points: 12.3 (8th)
Actual points: 2.9 (54th)
For years now, the Ravens have been thought of as a smash-mouth, run-first team. But there was a stark difference to the contrary between Baltimore’s rushing attempts (18) and pass attempts (49) against Cincinnati.
Part of the shift in strategy has to fall on the shoulders of Forsett, who has been brutally ineffective. Last year yielded the journeyman’s first crack at a starting job, and he responded with his third straight season of averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry. But that figure has fallen to 3.0 YPC in 2015.
If Forsett continues this downward spiral, he could find himself losing touches to Lorenzo Taliaferro or rookie Javorius Allen, who earned a reputation as a workhorse at USC.
RB2: Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Projected points: 11.3 (7th)
Actual points: 2.1 (T-63rd)
After just three weeks, Jeremy Hill is the first player to appear in this column twice. As I mentioned last week, Hill’s status as Cincinnati’s primary back was overstated during the preseason. He and Giovani Bernard have the same amount of carries (41) in 2015. The Bengals don’t seem to have a huge preference for one over the other in the red zone, either.
The good news for Hill’s owners is that the Bengals are going to be a run-first team, even if A.J. Green continues to blow up opposing defenses – Cincinnati is tied for the second-most rush attempts (98) in the NFL, just one behind San Francisco.
The bad news is that the Bengals backfield is now unquestionably a timeshare. And if anyone is going to take over as the lead back, momentum favors Bernard (5.7 yards per carry) over Hill (3.0 yards per carry).
WR1: Andre Johnson, Colts
Projected points: 7.4 (31st)
Actual points: 0.0 (N/A)
This might go without saying, but Johnson doesn’t deserve to start in any standard leagues until further notice. He’s clearly been passed in Indianapolis’ wideout pecking order by Donte Moncrief, who has 26 targets to Johnson’s 18. With the Colts’ passing offense not living up to expectations, you can’t afford to play the third option in their attack.
Even when he has been targeted, Johnson has only caught seven of the 18 balls thrown to him for a paltry total of 51 yards and no touchdowns.
The 34-year-old has clearly lost a step or two, and is having trouble separating from cornerbacks. Andrew Luck has plenty of other weapons to spread the ball around to, and Johnson might get even fewer looks as the season goes on.
WR2: Terrance Williams, Cowboys
Projected points: 7.2 (34th)
Actual points: 0.0 (N/A)
Last week, Williams appeared to take the No. 1 WR role vacated by Dez Bryant in Dallas with aplomb, hauling in four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles.
But with a new quarterback under center in Brandon Weeden, Williams was held off the box score as Dallas leaned heavily on check downs to Lance Dunbar (10 receptions, 100 yards) and short-route receivers like Jason Witten (six receptions, 65 yards) and Cole Beasley (four receptions, 49 yards).
If you own Williams, you could benefit from exhibiting patience over the next couple weeks. He has two very favorable matchups against the Saints and Patriots in Dallas’ next two games. But his ceiling is clearly lower with Tony Romo on the sidelines.
TE: Tyler Eifert, Bengals
Projected points: 7.4 (4th)
Actual points: 0.0 (N/A)
For every all-world performance like A.J. Green had against Baltimore, there’s a teammate who suffers from a fantasy standpoint. Eifert, who couldn’t bring in any of his three targets, was that guy on Sunday.
Eifert also wasn’t helped by a replay review that overturned a touchdown of his, in a situation identical to the infamous Dez Bryant no-catch from last year’s playoffs.
FLEX: Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Projected points: 12.9 (5th)
Actual points: 5.2 (38th)
Stewart’s owners were undoubtedly expecting more from him against New Orleans’ much-maligned defense. Instead, he averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry for the third consecutive week, and has yet to find the end zone.
That isn’t merely poor fortune — Stewart has found himself removed in the red zone for Mike Tolbert, a notorious touchdown vulture. If you can convince someone in your league that Stewart has merely gotten unlucky to not score this season, it could be a wise move to unload him in a trade while you still can.
D/ST: Miami Dolphins
Projected points: 7.1 (14th)
Actual points: -4.0 (30th)
It was Buffalo’s defense that was supposed to give Miami fits, not their offense. Nevertheless, the Dolphins recorded the worst output of any defense/special teams so far this season, as Tyrod Taylor and Co. handed Joe Philbin’s crew a sobering defeat.
KICKER: Matt Prater, Lions
Projected points: 8.1 (18th)
Actual points: 0.0 (T-28th)
Prater, like the rest of the Lions, had a night to forget against his former team.
The only kicking action he got all night was an extra-point attempt that was blocked by Aqib Talib. Those hoping Prater would net a few long field goals against Denver’s rugged defense were left wanting.
Maybe those owners, and the rest of this week’s busts, will have better luck next week.
Will Laws is a writer for PointAfter, a sports data aggregation and visualization website that’s part of the Graphiq network.
