College Football Picks Week 5: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule – Bleacher Report
Ahh, Week 5. Another chance for the NCAA college football Top 25 to reshape itself in what will surely be another Saturday of carnage.
Last week saw Michigan yank BYU out of the rankings and insert itself into the Cougars’ No. 22 position after a 31-0 victory. Oregon fell all the way from the No. 13 perch to just a few measly points after getting stomped at home 62-20 by Utah, who moved up eight spots to No. 10.
Georgia Tech and Missouri also tumbled out of the Associated Press Top 25 after losses to Duke and Kentucky, respectively. There are a few teams on the back end of this week’s rankings with some very tough matchups, so we could very well see another big shake-up in polls when Week 5 is all said and done.
Here it is, your Top 25 teams, their Week 5 schedule, spread and predictions for the inevitable chaos. No. 10 Utah and No. 18 USC are off this week.
Friday, October 2 | ||
Time (ET) | Matchup (w/ Spread) | Pick Against the Spread |
TBD | Arizona at No. 18 Stanford | Stanford |
TBD | Arizona State at No. 7 UCLA (-13.5) | UCLA |
Saturday, October 3 | ||
12 p.m. | Texas at No. 3 TCU (-17.5) | TCU |
12 p.m. | No. 23 West Virginia at No. 15 Oklahoma (-7) | West Virginia |
12 p.m. | Purdue at No. 2 Michigan State (-23.5) | Michigan State |
12 p.m. | Minnesota at No. 16 Northwestern (-6) | Northwestern |
12 p.m. | Iowa at No. 19 Wisconsin (-7.5) | Iowa |
3:30 p.m. | Texas Tech at No. 5 Baylor (-14) | Texas Tech |
3:30 p.m. | No. 1 Ohio State (-18.5) at Indiana | Ohio State |
3:30 p.m. | No. 11 Florida State (-18) at Wake Forest | Florida State |
3:30 p.m. | No. 13 Alabama at No. 8 Georgia (-2.5) | Alabama |
4 p.m. | Washington State at No. 24 Cal (-15.5) | Cal |
4 p.m. | Kansas State at No. 20 Oklahoma State (-5.5) | Kansas State |
7 p.m. | No. 3 Ole Miss (-7) at No. 25 Florida | Ole Miss |
7 p.m. | Eastern Michigan at No. 9 LSU (-46) | LSU |
7:30 p.m. | No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 14 Texas A&M (-7) | Mississippi State |
8 p.m. | No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 12 Clemson (-2.5) | Clemson |
8 p.m. | No. 22 Michigan (-12) at Maryland | Michigan |
ESPN.com, OddsShark.com
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Monday at 7 a.m. ET.
Game of the Week
Texas Tech at No. 5 Baylor
Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press
Please let this game be the platonic ideal of a shootout I know it can be. And please let Texas Tech cover.
Sure, there are a few contests pitting Top 25 SEC teams against each other this week, as well as a potentially great contest between No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 12 Clemson, but nowhere is the potential for an action-packed, all-out offensive assault greater than when the Red Raiders descend upon AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, for their Big-12 matchup against No. 5 Baylor.
Baylor boasts the top offense in college football in terms of yardage, while Texas Tech is fifth. Both teams are coming off big Week 4 games. Baylor is essentially averaging a new first down with each snap at 9.55 yards per play, via NCAA.com.
Texas Tech was 23 seconds and a miraculous tipped touchdown pass away from upsetting TCU last week. Instead, the Horned Frogs escaped with a 55-52 win. It was a heartbreaker for Texas Tech fans, even if it was the offense’s second-best output of the season against one of the nation’s best teams.
Those are some hefty point totals, but it’s a pittance compared to what Baylor’s putting up. The undefeated Bears started off the season with 56 points against SMU, then scored 66 against Lamar and after a week off dropped 70 on Rice.
Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press
Starting quarterback Seth Russell has thrown for 995 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. Baylor already has two running backs—Shock Linwood and Terence Williams—with over 300 yards rushing. Wide receiver Corey Coleman has eight touchdown receptions.
The Bears haven’t always made it look easy this year, as they’ve turned the ball over a bit more frequently than last season. They’ve also played against some decidedly weak competition to start the campaign. Still, there isn’t much to complain about when watching them in action.
The efficiency and speed with which they can score will take your breath away. Here’s a look at Seth Russell’s six touchdown passes against Rice, half of which came in the first quarter, via the Big-12 Conference:
Watch ALL of Seth Russell’s SIX touchdowns for @BUFootball from today. P.S. Three to Corey Coleman http://t.co/cTHb1VnxGs
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 26, 2015
Baylor’s defense hasn’t been up to the standard set by the offense, although they took pride in holding Rice to 17 points on the season.
“This was our statement, this is where we start,” linebacker Taylor Young said, via John Werner of the Waco Tribune-Herald. “This was our best game, it was a must. Now it’s time to go up this hill and keep on working.”
An even sharper performance will be needed to hold back the Red Raiders, led by dual-threat quarterback Patrick Mahomes and running back DeAndre Washington.
LM Otero/Associated Press
Mahomes has been especially impressive, spreading the ball around in a voluminous passing attack without racking up many turnovers.
“His ability to extend plays and keep his eyes downfield is as good as I’ve been around,” coach Kliff Kingsbury said on September 22, via FoxSports.com’s Bruce Feldman. “He’s unflappable and he picks things up quick and can process a lot.”
How many points will Texas Tech and Baylor combine for?
Mahomes boasts phenomenal arm strength and an offense crafted and honed by Klingsbury, a former Red Raiders QB himself. He could be a bit hobbled for Baylor, as he limped through much of the TCU game after a first-quarter hit.
According to Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News, Klingsbury wasn’t sure of the precise nature of the injury. Baylor could opt for an aggressive strategy if Mahomes‘ speed is lacking.
Sicking defensive end Shawn Oakman on him will surely be part of the plan. Here’s a look at the force of nature, via Bleacher Report on Twitter:
“Doubt me now, fear me later.” — Shawn Oakman, college football’s greatest destroyer https://t.co/SWAf0uDtah
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 24, 2015
Baylor is a big favorite at home and should have no problems putting up points. Texas Tech is No. 122 in the FBS in total defense and allows 6.51 yards per play, via NCAA.com. Baylor is No. 33, but again, it’s played the likes of Lamar, Rice and SMU, three non-Power Five conference teams. The Bears have yet to test the defense against a team like the Red Raiders.
In contrast, Texas Tech has had to deal with Arkansas (SEC) and TCU (Big-12) in consecutive weeks. Baylor should win this game, but here’s to hoping they combine for triple-digit points.
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