MLB Playoff Race: Dodgers can clinch Sunday
Including the games set for Sunday, we have eight days of regular season scheduled in 2015. We’re coming down to the end. The NL East and AL Central titles have been clinched, and four more teams have assured themselves of at least a playoff spot. That means four divisions are up for grabs, and four playoff spots are undetermined.
After a busy few days — with the Mets clinching the NL East, the Royals winning the AL Central, and the Pirates, Blue Jays and Cubs joining the Cardinals in the playoff field — we could have one addition today: The NL West champion could be crowned, with the Los Angeles Dodgers in position to clinch if they win and the Giants lose.
The Yankees still are hanging onto hopes of catching the Jays in the AL East; the Astros and Angels are still mathematically viable against the Rangers in the AL West; the Pirates are still within shouting distance of the Cardinals in the NL Central; and nine AL teams still could win a wild-card berth over the final eight scheduled days of the regular season — though three AL teams also could be eliminated today.
The playoff chances come are via our SportsLine Projection Model, and the “magic number” is the combined number of wins by the team ahead and losses by the team behind before a clinch can happen.
[NOTE: Playoff odds are rounded to the hundredth, so “100 percent” when it’s not clinched means it’s 99.95 percent or more]
The full slate of games for Sunday
NL West
Alex Wood and the Dodgers could clinch the NL West today. (USATSI)
With a seven-game lead, the Dodgers have a 99.9 percent chance to clinch, SportsLine notes. It would take a horrendous week in order to blow it, the worst week ever, though they do play four games at San Francisco this week, so it’s possible it might get uncomfortably interesting for them. Or those games might have no meaning, other than sorting out home-field advantage in the playoffs.
NL Central
It’s just a matter of who goes where. Projected to finish with 102 victories, and having a three-game lead on Pittsburgh, the Cards have a 92.1 percent chance of winning the division. The Pirates, just 7.9 percent. However, and it’s a big “but,” the Pirates host the Cards for three games this week at PNC Park. The Cubs, eliminated from winning the division, also trail the Pirates by 5 1/2 games for theoretical home field in the wild-card game, so they’re probably going to finish third. Probably.
NL East
The Mets have clinched, the Nationals are out — and Bryce Harper says he has nothing but good wishes for New York in the playoffs. The only details still to be determined: First-round opponent and home-field advantage. The Mets and Dodgers have the same number of losses — 67 — heading into Sunday. Assuming the Dodgers win the NL West, a tie at the end of the regular season would give the Mets home field in the NLDS based on them winning the season series 4-3.
NL wild card
The NL East is the NL wild card. It’s like when SOYLENT GREEN WAS PEOPLE! OK, maybe not so dramatic. There’s just a 7.9 percent chance the Cardinals will be passed by the Pirates, and even if it happens, St. Louis would host the Cubs in the wild card. The Pirates lead the Cubs by 5 1/2 games for home-field advantage in the wild card. In the event of a tie at the end of the regular season, the Cubs would host because they won the season series 10-8 against Pittsburgh.
AL East
The Blue Jays lead the Yankees by four games and have a magic number of five with eight games to go. Projected to win 93.5 games, the Jays have a 99 percent chance to take their first AL East since 1993. And that’s duty free, no exchange rate, nothing. All straight up. The Yankees, who fought bravely, are still in great shape for a playoff spot, and for hosting the wild card.
AL Central
The Royals have clinched and it’s just a matter of deciding possible home field in the ALCS (if they were to win in the ALDS). Assuming the Blue Jays beat the Yankees in the AL East, the Royals would have to finish the regular season with a better record than Toronto in order to get home field in the ALCS. The Blue Jays edged the Royals 4-3 in the regular season, earning any tiebreaker. Heading into Sunday, the Jays and Royals were 89-65.
AL West
David Freese and the Angels are playing the X-factor down the stretch. (USATSI)
Although they fell to the Astros on Saturday, the Rangers have gone 34-18 since Aug. 1 and are a 92.3 percent favorite to win the division. They’re also at 97.7 percent to make the playoffs, so even if they blow their 3 1/2 game lead on the Astros, they have at least some margin for error. The Astros have a 2.5 percent chance of winning the division, and still have a 62.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, even after going 8-15 in September so far. In order to stay with the Rangers over the final week for a division title, Houston pretty much has to beat Texas on Sunday, with ace Dallas Keuchel pitching against Martin Perez. If the Astros lose, their elimination number falls to three.
The Angels have a 4.6 chance of winning the division, and have a 23.4 percent chance of making the playoffs — but it’s a deceiving 23.4 percent, because of the way they’ve been playing (good) and because of the Astros trajectory (bad). The Angels also finish the regular season with four games at Texas, so the Angels actually have a better chance than the Astros of winning the division, even though they trail Houston in the standings. The entire quagmire probably won’t be drained until the last day — unless there are ties.
AL wild card
Still much to be sorted, with nine teams viable and only three in position to be eliminated Sunday. This could be the last day for the Mariners, Red Sox and Rays, all of whom still have infinitesimal chances. Among those still alive but not yet mentioned, SportsLine pegs the Minnesota Twins at 8.6 percent and the Indians at 5.3 percent. The Orioles are listed at zero percent, but it must be something like 0.001, because they’re not dead yet (they’re getting better!).
Here’s how things stand heading into Sunday:
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