NFL against the spread picks: Who is desperate in Week 3?
In the NFL, an 0-2 start isn’t a death sentence for making the playoffs. But if you start 0-3, you might as well forget the postseason.
Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, about 12 percent of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. But only three — the 1992 San Diego Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills — have made the playoffs after starting 0-3.
So to the 0-2 teams, you better win this week or you’re done. They know that. And we should keep it in mind while making picks.
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Not all 0-2 teams are created equal. Some just stink and it doesn’t matter if they’re desperate for a win this week. But for the 0-2 teams we still have hope for, this is a mini-playoff game in September. That thought process worked for picking the New York Giants on Thursday night.
So let’s get to the picks, and see who really needs a win:
Giants (-4) over Redskins (picked Thursday): I’m not sold on the Giants being good. I am sold on the Redskins not being good.
Browns (-3.5) over Raiders: Not a game I feel strongly about either way. But the Raiders are 2-22 on the road the last three seasons. I’ll keep rolling with that trend until I see reason to change.
Falcons (-2) over Cowboys: Dallas’ running backs haven’t been good yet. Now that’s all the Cowboys have for a couple months. It wouldn’t shock me if the running game clicks on Sunday and puts up a huge week, but I want to see it happen first.
Colts (-3.5) over Titans: Still, I don’t get the Titans love in these lines. And a clear case where the Colts need a win. And unlike their first two opponents, the Titans don’t have a top-five defense.
Steelers (-1) over Rams: The Rams have the talent to beat anyone, but are often so unprepared they can lose to anyone, so it becomes impossible to pick them. If I didn’t pick every game I’d probably lay off the Rams every week. But a good Steelers offense gets Le’Veon Bell back, so I’m riding with that.
Vikings (-2.5) over Chargers: If the Vikings had looked like themselves in Week 1, this line wouldn’t be less than a field goal. I think the Vikings we saw in Week 2 is what we’re going to get most of this season.
Jaguars (+13.5) over Patriots: I’ll regret this when it’s 31-7, but this could be enough of a letdown spot for the Patriots for the Jaguars to eke out a cover.
Eagles (+2.5) over Jets: Desperate team alert! And if the Eagles lose, we can just cross them off the list until further notice and move on.
Panthers (-3) over Saints: It’s either Luke McCown or an injured Drew Brees for the Saints, and I’m not liking them in either scenario.
Ravens (-2.5) over Bengals: Another desperate team. I can’t see the Ravens going 0-3. And being out west for the first two games was a tough scheduling spot. This is not your normal 0-2 team.
Texans (-6.5) over Buccaneers: Yet another 0-2 team that is going to give us their best effort.
Cardinals (-6.5) over 49ers: Remember what we saw in Steelers-49ers last week? I don’t know why this one would be much different.
Bills (+2.5) over Dolphins: I was driving that Dolphins bandwagon all of August, but it’s clear something is really off with this team.
Seahawks (-14.5) over Bears: Hate laying this many points with any NFL team, but an 0-2 Seahawks team is going to take out a lot of frustration here.
Lions (+3) over Broncos: The Lions are 0-2 after two tough road games. The Broncos are 2-0, but could have lost both. Philadelphia’s run offense is the only reason Denver isn’t dead last in the NFL in yards per pass and yards per rush, which is incredible. I don’t think you’ll need the points here. Lions are going to win, assuming Matthew Stafford plays.
Chiefs (+6.5) over Packers: Tough to pick against the Packers in Lambeau, but last week had to be a huge game for them, not only getting revenge for the NFC championship game last season but also what it meant for playoff seeding this season. So beware a bit of a letdown. And the Chiefs are pretty good. This should be a fun game.
Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 19-13-1
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
