MLB playoff race: AL West battle, Cubs can clinch
Boy, how time flies. The Major League Baseball regular season in 2015 has just 10 days left. We already know three of the playoff teams, as the Royals clinched the AL Central on Thursday night while the Pirates and Cardinals have both locked down playoff spots.
The weekend series bring some fun matchups and will help settle which 10 teams will be playoff-bound in a little over a week.
So let’s run down each race and take a look at where it stands. The playoff chances are via our Sportsline calculations and the “magic number” is the combined number of wins by the team ahead and losses by the team behind before a clinch can happen.
[NOTE: Playoff odds are rounded to the hundredth, so “100 percent” when it’s not clinched means it’s 99.95 percent or more]
AL East
The Yankees got the win Thursday, so the Blue Jays have a three-game lead with 10 for each to play. The magic number is eight with the Jays holding a 92.6 percent chance to win the thing. Friday, the Yankees continue their series against the White Sox while the Blue Jays host the Rays.
AL Central
Royals have clinched.
AL West
Texas Rangers, – , 89.2%
Houston Astros, 3 1/2 GB, 7.6%
Los Angeles Angels, 5 GB, 2.6%
And now the real fun. The Rangers visit Houston for a three-game series. The extremes here are the Astros sweeping and cutting this thing to a half-game or the Rangers sweeping and putting it out of reach at 6 1/2 games. It could also end with a 2 1/2-game or 4 1/2-game Rangers lead. The magic number over the Astros is seven while it’s six over the Angels. The Angels host the Mariners this weekend.
Prince Fielder’s Rangers square off against Jose Altuve’s Astros. (USATSI)
AL wild card
New York Yankees, +4 1/2, 93.8%
Houston Astros, – , 63.6%
LA Angels, 1 1/2 GB, 12 1/2%
Minnesota Twins, 1 1/2 GB, 13.4%
Baltimore Orioles, 3 1/2 GB, 0.4%
Cleveland Indians, 4 GB, 1.5%
The aforementioned Yankees, Astros and Angels games obviously carry heavy weight here. The Twins head to Detroit for a big series as well. The Orioles head to Boston while they hold on for dear life. The Indians play in Kansas City, where the Royals clinched the division Thursday, so that’s probably a plus.
NL East
With the Mets win Thursday teamed with the Nationals loss, this thing is even more elementary than it already was. The Mets now boast a 7 1/2-game lead and the magic number is down to three. The odds say it’s a 100 percent chance the Mets win. It’s over, albeit not officially.
NL Central
Both the Cardinals and Pirates won Thursday, so it’s still a four-game lead for St. Louis. The magic number is six. This weekend could go a long way in deciding things, because the Cardinals have three more games against the Brewers at home while the Pirates have to deal with the Cubs in Wrigley (with both Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta pitching, too). Should this stay close into next week, though, the Pirates host the Cardinals for a three-game series. As for the Cubs, they aren’t eliminated, but the odds (rounded) show a 0.0 percent chance of winning the division. The Cardinals are 97.1 percent to the Pirates 2.9 percent.
NL West
The Dodgers have an eight-game lead with 10 to play. The magic number is three and the Dodgers have a (rounded up) 100 percent chance to win. This is over, even with the Giants getting a head-to-head series next week, barring the biggest comeback ever. Seriously, remember those 2012 A’s running down the Rangers? They made up five games in the final nine.
NL wild card
The Pirates (97.1 percent chance) or Cardinals (2.9 percent chance) have one of these spots. The Cubs’ magic number over the Giants for the second spot is one with everyone else eliminated. So that means that the two wild cards come from the NL Central unless the Cubs lose every game the rest of the way while the Giants win every game the rest of the way.
On the flip-side, the Cubs clinch their first playoff berth since 2008 with either a win Friday or a Giants loss to Sonny Gray and the A’s. This happening Friday is more likely than the Giants winning the wild card this year. The odds machine shows the Cubs at 100 percent.
Can the Cubs clinch a playoff spot Friday? (USATSI)
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