Matchups: Silva's Week 3 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Atlanta @ Dallas

Missing last year’s Big Three of Tony Romo (clavicle), Dez Bryant (foot), and DeMarco Murray (Eagles), the Cowboys host Atlanta with a Vegas team total of under 22 points in a game with a 45-point over-under. I think the O/U on this game would’ve been over 50 were Romo and Dez playing. … Brandon Weeden is 5-16 in his career as a starter and has an eight-game losing streak dating back to December of 2012. #QBWinz, I know, but Weeden deserves the lion’s share of blame with more career interceptions than touchdowns and a 56.4% completion rate. He fell on his face in a 2014 spot start against Arizona with far more surrounding talent than this year’s Cowboys boast, going 18-of-33 for 183 yards and two picks before completing a garbage-time three-yard score to Bryant with just over a minute left in a three-score loss. Weeden has arm strength, but lacks athleticism and is notorious for picking which receiver he’ll throw to coming out of the huddle, then never coming off his first read. Even against a talent-deficient Falcons defense, you want no part of a Dez-less Weeden in fantasy. … Weeden’s target distribution off the bench last Sunday against Philadelphia: Cole Beasley and Lance Dunbar 2; Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar, and Terrance Williams 1. … Williams has the most big-play ability of what’s left of the Cowboys’ wideout corps, and last week caught Eagles CB Byron Maxwell sound asleep on a crossing route, resulting in a 42-yard TD. Williams has been an inconsistent player throughout his career, however, will ultimately suffer from the severe quarterback downgrade, and may spend most of this game in Falcons top CB Desmond Trufant‘s coverage. Williams is a boom-or-bust WR3 who would have busted last Sunday if not for Maxwell’s late-game mental error.

The fact that the post-Romo Cowboys will surely place a greater emphasis on the run will work against Beasley, a small slot receiver whose fantasy appeal is wholly volume driven. … Witten should theoretically serve as a “safety valve” for Weeden, but ups and downs are likely for Dallas’ tight end. Witten did produce a somewhat respectable 6-62 line in Weeden’s spot start last year, seeing seven targets. Now nursing twin ankle sprains in addition to a knee sprain, however, Witten is in an increasingly rough spot with both consistency and injury concerns. … Through two weeks, Joseph Randle has averaged 19 touches for 86 yards per game and 3.41 yards per carry while playing 41% of Dallas’ snaps. Darren McFadden has totaled 43.5 yards per game on 19% of the downs with a 2.94 YPC average. Dunbar’s snap rate is 40% with just one carry for eight yards, but 11 receptions for 115 yards. I don’t think the losses of offensive steam engines Romo and Dez bode well for anyone in the Cowboys’ backfield for both scoring and game flow reasons. Randle is a low-end RB2 against an overachieving Falcons run defense that limited Eagles and Giants RBs to a combined 137 yards on 37 carries (3.70 YPC) in Weeks 1 and 2. Philly backs did rush twice for TDs at Atlanta. The early-season failures of Dallas’ running back corps bode well for Christine Michael‘s chances at earning a significant role down the road.

Rookie Tevin Coleman‘s fractured rib puts Atlanta’s running game onto the shoulders of change-of-pace back Devonta Freeman, owner of a 3.34 YPC average through his first 18 NFL games. Freeman is a natural in the passing game, and sheer volume in a solid offense puts him in the weekly RB2 discussion until Coleman returns. Freeman opens as the Falcons’ lead back with a tougher matchup than it may appear, however. Keyed by a healthy WLB Sean Lee, the Cowboys’ run defense has been lights out in the early going. Combined against Dallas, Giants and Eagles RBs managed 78 yards and one score on 37 carries (2.11 YPC) in the first two weeks. In last Sunday’s road upset of Philadelphia, the Cowboys relentlessly threw DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles for stuffs and losses. Freeman should flirt with 20 touches per game in the absence of Coleman — rendering Freeman quite useful as a fantasy commodity — but don’t expect rushing fireworks in Week 3. … While the Cowboys’ ability to dominate time of possession and therefore limit enemy offenses’ field time may diminish with Dez and Romo out of the picture, it’s certainly been a problem for their opponents to date. Dallas ranks first in the NFL in possession time and 26th in defensive snaps. The Cowboys have also played excellent pass defense so far, holding Eli Manning and Sam Bradford to 43-of-73 passing (58.9%) for 417 yards (5.71 YPA), one touchdown, and two interceptions. Including Atlanta’s sub-24-point Vegas team total, there are enough red flags here that I’ll be fading Matt Ryan this week in DFS.

Ryan’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Julio Jones 26; Leonard Hankerson 15; Freeman 12; Roddy White and Jacob Tamme 9; Coleman 3. … Moving around more than ever in new OC Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme, Julio ranks second in the NFL in targets and receiving yards (276). He’s a top-three receiver play each week. On Sunday, Jones will run his routes at inconsistent Dallas boundary corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. … In last week’s win over the Giants, Hankerson had the game I thought he might deliver in Week 1. “HankTime” played 67% of Atlanta’s snaps, parlaying 11 targets into 6-77-1. Hankerson nearly had a second touchdown, only to be ruled down at the goal line before Coleman punched it in. Roddy took a backseat, goose egging on a single look despite logging a 79% playing time clip. While I’d have a hard time trusting either of the Falcons’ complementary wideouts as a Week 3 fantasy start, I wouldn’t be shocked if Hankerson overtook White in the starting lineup by midseason. … After a nondescript opener, Tamme delivered a 4-77 line on six targets last Sunday against the G-Men. Tamme is playing 75% of the Falcons’ snaps. While his weekly involvement seems bound to frustrate, Tamme is worth a look as a streamer against Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli‘s Tampa 2-style defense, which last year allowed the most receptions in the league to tight ends. This year, Giants and Eagles tight ends combined for nine catches against Dallas in the first two games.

Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Cowboys 20

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

The sky is falling on the 0-2 Seahawks and 0-2 Colts, or so Twitter told me. Look for a rebound game from Indianapolis’ offense in Week 3, taking on a Titans defense that was gashed for two long touchdown bombs by Johnny Manziel last week and has yet to be truly tested after facing just 15 pass attempts from Manziel following a Week 1 date with Jameis Winston in his first NFL start. Andrew Luck posted a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio in last season’s two wins over Tennessee, while Luck hit 400 yards with three touchdowns in a Week 8 date with then-Steelers DC Dick LeBeau, who is now running the Titans’ defense. I wonder if recency bias might lead to Luck being a bit underowned in DFS this week. … With Indy favored by three on the road, this is a game that should get Frank Gore going. Gore was a chain-moving grinder (3.83 YPC) in brutal matchups against the Bills and Jets to open the season, but has looked spry on his carries. He had multiple strong runs negated by penalties last Monday night versus New York and uncharacteristically lost a goal-line fumble. In Weeks 1-2, Tennessee permitted 189 yards and a TD on 46 runs to (4.11 YPC) to Browns and Bucs RBs. At worst, this is an above-average matchup for Gore.

Luck’s target distribution: T.Y. Hilton 21; Donte Moncrief 19; Andre Johnson 17; Phillip Dorsett 9; Dwayne Allen 6; Josh Robinson 5; Gore 4; Coby Fleener 1. … Despite playing through a knee bruise, Hilton logged 84% of the Colts’ snaps in last Monday night’s loss to the Jets, and should be healthier this week. Hilton is a WR2 with WR1 upside against a Titans defense that has allowed three passing plays of 40-plus yards, tied for second most in the NFL. … After the signing of Johnson and selection of Dorsett, I entered the season skeptical how much Moncrief would play this year. I’ve been dead wrong about him. Moncrief has a 76% snap rate through two weeks and noticeably played ahead of Johnson in two-wide sets for stretches against the Jets. The overall WR8 in PPR so far, Moncrief is an every-week WR2 for as long as he maintains this usage. … Johnson’s early-season performance suggests he belongs behind Moncrief on the depth chart, and should be treated as a dicey WR3 play in fantasy leagues. Managing scoreless stat lines of 4-24 and 3-27 against the Bills and Jets, Andre has seen three of the 17 passes thrown at him intercepted while catching just over 41% of his targets. … Clearly behind Hilton, Moncrief, and Johnson, Dorsett is playing only 22% of Indy’s offensive downs. Dorsett should bust some sporadic big plays over the course of the year, but they’ll be virtually impossible to predict. … Allen (ankle) appears unlikely to face the Titans, setting up Fleener for streamer TE1 and DFS usage. In Allen’s three missed games last season, Fleener posted receiving lines of 2-28, 4-127-2, and 5-56-2. Fleener added a 7-144 number in a Week 11 game against the Patriots where Allen left early. Fleener scored three TDs in last year’s two games against the Titans.

Coming off a letdown loss in Cleveland, the Titans enter Week 3 with a Vegas team total of just over 21 points. … Injury ravaged at cornerback and short on pass rush, the Colts were touched up by borderline-NFL starters Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick for a combined 36-of-53 passing (67.9%), 439 yards (8.28 YPA), three touchdowns, and one interception in Weeks 1-2. Indy has one sack as a team. While Marcus Mariota makes for an intriguing DFS tournament option, his shortage of rushing usage lowers his fantasy floor. The dual-threat rookie has scrambled just five times through two games, gaining 25 yards. Even in a favorable matchup, I’m not ready to anoint Mariota a fantasy QB1 just yet. Mariota’s ceiling may also be lowered by the Titans’ unwillingness to push the ball outside the numbers. Through two games, 27 of Mariota’s 34 completions (79%) have occurred on passes thrown inside the numbers or behind the line of scrimmage. This offense needs more Dorial Green-Beckham. … The Colts have played solid run defense early on, yielding 192 yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries (3.67 YPC) to Jets and Bills RBs. While I’d still view this as a favorable draw for Bishop Sankey, Sankey’s usage remains his primary obstacle. Failing to build on a promising opener, Sankey was out-gained, out-snapped, and out-touched by Dexter McCluster in last week’s loss to Cleveland, as the Titans played from behind. Sankey is a shaky low-end RB2/flex play in a matchup where game script could again become problematic. McCluster is a scatback and passing-down specialist. Terrance West is playing his way out of the picture with lost fumbles in back-to-back games.

Mariota’s Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Harry Douglas 10; Anthony Fasano and Kendall Wright 8; Sankey and Chase Coffman 6; McCluster and Justin Hunter 4; Delanie Walker 3; DGB 2. … It’s a red flag on all Tennessee pass catchers that Douglas leads the team in targets. On his ten looks, Douglas has three catches for 33 yards. … Wright took a Week 2 step back (2-17-0) after his big opener, but should pace the Titans in receiving more often than not this year. Wright moves around and plays in the slot enough that he’s likely to avoid stingy Colts CB Vontae Davis for the majority of Sunday’s game. Ideally, Wright should be a target and catch machine in Tennessee’s inside-the-numbers, theoretically high-percentage passing game. I like him as a WR3 in PPR this week. … This game also sets up well for Walker, though I’d prefer to see him produce before firing him up in a fantasy league. Walker missed Week 2 due to instability in wrist, where he’s nursing a ligament sprain. Facing Jeff Cumberland and Charles Clay has surely helped, but it’s worth noting the Colts have allowed just four catches for 43 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends so far this year. … Behind Douglas (84%) and Wright (81%), Hunter logged a 56% snap rate in last week’s loss to the Browns, while Green-Beckham played 15% and beat Joe Haden for a 13-yard touchdown. “DGB” remains stash worthy in 12- and 14-team leagues, but he won’t become a starting option until the Titans commit to playing him more.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 20

Oakland @ Cleveland

Even as Derek Carr returns from arguably his career-best game, the Raiders are 3.5-point road dogs in a game with a paltry 42.5-point Vegas total. Oakland’s team total is just 19.5 points. … The Raiders’ strongest fantasy play is Latavius Murray facing Cleveland’s perennially porous run defense. Through two games, the Browns have silver plattered 303 yards and two TDs on 57 runs (5.32 YPC) to Jets and Titans tailbacks. Continuing to log three-down usage, Murray ranks 11th among running backs in snaps while averaging 18 touches for 83.5 yards per game. I might avoid Latavius in DFS cash games due to game-flow concerns, but he’s an RB2 with RB1 upside in season-long leagues and a fine DFS tournament play. … The Browns’ pass defense has been far stouter during the Mike Pettine era, and through two weeks has held its own. Cleveland’s pass rush erupted for seven sacks in last week’s win over the Titans, and in last year’s Week 8 date with the Browns, Carr went 34-of-54 passing for 328 yards, one touchdown, a fumble lost, and four sacks taken. View Carr as a low-end two-quarterback-league starter at Cleveland.

Carr’s target distribution on the year: Michael Crabtree 18; Amari Cooper 16; Murray 7; Mychal Rivera 5; Andre Holmes 4; Marcel Reece 3; Clive Walford 2. … Cooper seemingly has a tough draw versus Joe Haden, but last week dusted Ravens top CB Jimmy Smith for a 68-yard scoring bomb and should be largely matchup proof based on volume. I’m starting Cooper everywhere I own him every week. … The Week 2 emergence of Crabtree may also discourage the Browns from shadowing Cooper with Haden. Crabtree was a run-after-catch beast versus Baltimore, incessantly flaming LCB Lardarius Webb. Piling up 16 targets, the effort put Crabtree back into WR3 discussion. Still, Oakland’s low-scoring projection and Cleveland’s stingy backend are concerns for Crabtree’s Week 3 outlook. … Holmes and Seth Roberts are rotating sub-package snaps as Nos. 3 and 4 receivers. … Rivera played 57% of Oakland’s offensive downs last week, while blocker Lee Smith handled 53% and rookie Walford mixed in for 27%. Rivera is the main pass catcher of the group, but through two weeks has just 19 yards on seven targets.

Expect another run-heavy game plan from Cleveland. Playing at home versus a leaky run defense makes it the likeliest approach. In Weeks 1-2, Oakland was gutted for 233 yards and three TDs on 50 carries (4.66 YPC) by Ravens and Bengals RBs. Coming off a tackle-shedding 15-72-1 outburst in last week’s win over Tennessee, Isaiah Crowell played himself back into the RB2 conversation. With the Browns installed as 3.5-point favorites, game flow projects to work in Crowell’s favor. … Whereas Crowell has handled 29 touches on 49% of Cleveland’s snaps, Duke Johnson has mixed in for 19 touches on 47.5% of the downs. The Browns’ backfield is a timeshare, giving Johnson flex appeal in plus draws like this one, even if his effectiveness has been a small-sample disappointment so far. More disappointing has been Johnson’s lack of receiving involvement; a passing-game maven by trade, Duke wasn’t targeted once in the Browns’ first two games. Still, I like Johnson’s chances of seeing double-digit touches versus Oakland and plan to start him in a few season-long leagues. It’s perhaps notable that Browns brass openly compared Johnson to Giovani Bernard coming out of college. Gio diced up these same Raiders for 88 yards on 14 touches in Week 1, averaging nearly eight yards per carry.

The Browns have elected to re-insert Josh McCown at quarterback, benching Johnny Manziel after he engineered Cleveland’s first win of the year on the strength of two touchdown bombs to Travis Benjamin and no turnovers against the Titans. McCown is a downgrade to all Browns skill players. … Playing only 57% of Cleveland’s snaps, Benjamin is a donkey pickup in fantasy leagues. The situational deep threat and return man only ran nine pass routes in last week’s two-TD game while rotating with Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel, and Dwayne Bowe. Benjamin is a classic fluke who will appeal only to backwards-thinking point chasers.

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Browns 17

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