Week 4 college football odds: The 10 best over and under picks – CBSSports.com

Can we pretend Week 3 didn’t happen? No? OK, fine.

It went about as poorly as possible for me in over-under picks last week as I went 2-8, bringing my .500 record to a disappointing 12-18. It’s time to chip away at that deficit in Week 4 — or you can just fade me, either way works.

Oklahoma State at Texas UNDER 61.5: This line opened at 60 and has already moved up to 61.5, I wouldn’t take this one yet, but if you wait on it with heavy public money on the over this could get over the key number of 63 and provide really good value.

Both of these teams are coming off of their best offensive performances of the season in Week 3. Oklahoma State torched UTSA for 69 points, but I think they look more like the offense that put up 24 and 32 points in the first two weeks against the Longhorns’ defense. Texas has rolled up 40-plus on Rice and California the last two weeks and seems to have found a quarterback in Jerrod Heard. That said, Oklahoma State’s defense has been very effective early this season, not allowing more than 14 points in a game.

I like the under fine where it is now at 61.5, but will be much more confident in this later in the week once this total gets higher.

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss UNDER 55.5: Ole Miss put 43 on Alabama, but they had some incredible luck to get some of those scores. The Rebels aren’t a particularly strong running team and the Vanderbilt defense has been very good against the pass early this season, allowing just 153.3 yards per game through the air.

That Vanderbilt pass defense coupled with the let down potential of this game for the Rebels makes me like the under here. Vanderbilt’s offense being bad doesn’t hurt either.

Kansas at Rutgers UNDER 65.5: This is quite possibly the worst game on the schedule this week, which is saying something in a sub-par Week 4. Both of these teams have bad defenses, but they’re not offensive juggernauts. When two sloppy teams get together, it usually lends itself to the under. The total of 65.5 just feels too high here for a pair of really bad football teams.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas UNDER 59.5: I narrowly missed the over in Texas Tech-Arkansas last week as the game slowed down in the second half. Arkansas went back to running the ball more against the Red Raiders — 43 carries to 21 pass attempts — and that has allowed the Hogs to control some clock. I think the game plan will be similar against the Aggies to try and keep the ball away from the Texas A&M offense.

I don’t think that will be enough to get the Razorbacks a win, but I think that defense is better than they get credit for and they can keep this one relatively low-scoring. Also, if Arkansas decides to throw the ball a bunch again, Myles Garrett and friends could have a big afternoon putting Brandon Allen on his back.

The over is going to be the public side here, and while it hasn’t gone up just yet, if you hold off until later this week you are likely to see this in the low 60s.

Tennessee at Florida UNDER 48: This game has been ugly and not particularly well played for the better part of a decade, most notably last year’s 10-9 win for the Gators in Knoxville.

Florida’s defense should present a pretty strong test for the Vols, which weren’t the most explosive against Oklahoma — the one quality defense they have faced. On the other side, I don’t have much faith in the Florida offense that could only come up with 14 points on Kentucky.

Central Michigan at Michigan State OVER 54: Michigan State is 12-4 on hitting the over since 2014. People still overrate the Spartans defense a bit, which has given up 20 points or more in every game this season. On offense, Connor Cook and company have been terrific. I think after letting off the gas against Air Force last week late, the Spartans will want to really finish a game off this week and go for a pretty big point total.

Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama OVER 55: This game is an angry Alabama squad, which had a really quality offensive performance against one of the nation’s best defenses, against a Louisiana-Monroe team that got gashed for 51 points by Georgia in 51 minutes of play. Yes, I’ll take this over thank you.

Nevada at Buffalo OVER 56: Nevada’s offense looked pretty spunky against Texas A&M on Saturday and might have found a little rhythm. The defense wasn’t stellar, but few are against the Aggies. The Wolfpack head to Buffalo, where the Bulls have put up some nice offensive performances in the two weeks that they haven’t faced Penn State’s stingy defense. This line has dropped a point since open, so maybe give it another day to see if that 56 number drops again and gets down to 55. Either way I like this over.

Southern Miss at Nebraska OVER 68: Nebraska, like Sparty, has been a great over team the last year-plus — 11-4-1 at overs — and they’re playing a team that’s coming off a 56-50 win over Texas State. Southern Miss can score some points themselves and don’t exactly have a stout defense. I think this one flirts with 80 combined points and comes in over the total.

California at Washington OVER 61: Cal’s offense is awesome. Jared Goff is the real deal and can wing it around and put up points on anyone. The Cal defense leaves a good bit to be desired and they’re coming off of a shaky road performance against Texas’ offense. Washington’s offense has come around some since a disastrous Week 1 showing at Boise State and I think this one hits the over fairly comfortably.

Arkansas and Texas A&M will square off in Arlington on Saturday. (USATSI)

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