Power Rankings: After a Chase reset, Denny Hamlin is No. 1
Our Power Rankings are far from a scientific formula. In fact, it’s the perfect blend of analytics and bias against your favorite driver. And you think we dislike your favorite driver, so it makes sense, right? Direct all your complaints to us at [email protected] and we’ll try to have some fun.
1. Denny Hamlin: We might as well reset our Power Rankings after attempting to predict the field heading into the Chase. So that means Denny Hamlin gets the top spot because he won. His win was the third-straight win for Joe Gibbs Racing, a team that’s won four races in a row already this season. Can they do it again? The odds seem in their favor. The team has won three of the last six races at New Hampshire. And the last New Hampshire winner…
2. Kyle Busch: Was this guy, who led 121 laps at Chicago on Sunday. If Busch gets the season sweep at New Hampshire, he’ll be the first driver since his brother in 2004 to win both New Hampshire races in a season. And guess what Kurt Busch did that season? Yup, he won the Sprint Cup Series championship. While the omen would be a nice one for Kyle, the win is more important for simple Chase advancement purposes given his Chase struggles.
3. Kurt Busch: Another race where Kurt Busch leads late and another late-race caution. No we’re not alleging conspiracy here, but Busch had to wonder what the heck was going on as it looked like he was going to be the guy who was automatically advancing into the second round. He questioned the call to not take tires for the final restart. But the call ended up working out; just not in Busch’s favor. He finished third. Simply avoiding disaster over the next two races should be good enough to move on.
4. Jimmie Johnson: While Johnson received the chest-punch wrath of Kevin Harvick after the race for the move he made on a mid-race restart, it’s important to note two incidents of conservative and careful driving by Johnson. First, after he went three-wide with Harvick after the restart, he backed off instead of driving three-wide into turn one. If he was truly trying to screw with Harvick, wouldn’t he have pressed the issue more? Second, on the final restart, he could have stayed in the gas while coming off turn two and forced Jeff Gordon into an untenable situation. Instead, he let off the gas and lost a bunch of spots. While Harvick may not think so, Johnson was being pragmatic.
5. Carl Edwards: Edwards finished second, the first driver on fresh tires at the end of the race. But he lost any chance of trying to get to his teammate for the lead when he struggled getting past Kurt Busch for second place. By the time he had disposed of Busch, he had run out of time. It was a heck of a comeback for Edwards too after he was tagged with a speeding penalty early in the race. Edwards and Hamlin were the poster boys for how early issues can be overcome with smart strategies. The No. 4 team should be taking note.
6. Ryan Newman: Newman finished fourth on Sunday. Check his tires! OK, NASCAR probably did. And we’re joking anyway. But it’s going to be fun if Newman is faster in the Chase again this year. The driver that is most likely to pull a Newman in 2015 is Newman himself. If he keeps finishing fourth, there’s not going to be any way of preventing him from making the final four again.
7. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth led a solitary lap and finished fifth on Sunday. What a drop-off from Richmond. Should we be concerned about Kenseth moving forward? He finished four spots worse and led 99.72 percent fewer laps on Sunday than he did at Richmond. Commence the not-real-at-all panic time, especially if he doesn’t win at New Hampshire on Sunday.
8. Joey Logano: Logano wanted nothing to do with the kerfuffle between Johnson and Harvick. After the race he said ““I had nothing to do with that. The 48 went three-wide bottom and I was just sitting there. I was no part of it.” Well, while Logano didn’t have anything to do with Johnson forcing his way back on to the track, he helped Johnson get down to the apron when he pushed him on the restart.
9. Brad Keselowski: Keselowski mounted a charge on the race’s final restart but couldn’t really get going. He had fresh tires and made them briefly work but ended up finishing eighth, one spot ahead of Kyle Busch. How fun is it going to be if Busch, Keselowski and Harvick are battling for the race win again at New Hampshire? If NASCAR could fast-forward the race to the turning point of the summer one and see if things would play out differently it probably would.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished 12th and is now 10th in the standings. How crazy is that? It’s what happens when you’re the 10th Chase driver in the race standings. It also means that Junior is 14 points back of the lead. The top six in the standings are separated by four points and the gap from first to 12th is smaller than the gap from 12th to 16th. If someone in that top tier has a bad finish at New Hampshire, it’s going to be ugly.
11. Martin Truex Jr.: Truex ran near the front of the field for most of the day and led 39 laps. He restarted fourth and also didn’t take tires on the final restart. Like Jeff Gordon, he fell back into the teeth of the drivers who did have fresh tires. He finished 13th. That’s about where he’ll finished (based on past results) at New Hampshire too. He’s finished anywhere from 8th-17th in the last nine New Hampshire races including three-straight 12th-place finishes.
12. Jeff Gordon: The dominant theme of the day for Gordon? What else but restarts. The first notable restart was “close” per NASCAR, but was deemed legal after Gordon got a good jump and the lead. Gordon didn’t get a good jump on the last restart and was passed by Hamlin heading into turn one. Gordon couldn’t keep his car stuck to the track in the middle and started sliding up the track and back through the field. He finished 14th.
The DNF: We’re moving this slot up this week so we can talk about Kevin Harvick. Though Harvick finished 42nd, he didn’t DNF as he got back out on track. But it might as well have been a DNF. If Harvick doesn’t win at New Hampshire or Dover and can’t wriggle his way into the top 12, being out of the Chase is not Jimmie Johnson’s fault. It’s the team’s. Especially at this stage in the Chase it’s absolutely imperative to minimize risk and damage and the No. 4 team should have immediately pitted for the post-restart tire rub. Had Harvick finished 20th instead of 42nd, he’s tied with Jeff Gordon for 12th in the standings.
Lucky Dog: Congratulations to Kyle Larson for winning the “Not in the Chase” class of the race on Sunday. He finished second. He was joined on the podium by Aric Almirola and David Ragan.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
